Ukraine

[Vouthon]

theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/28/vladimir-putin-crimean-coup-russia-ukraine

Guardian - Crimean coup is payback by Putin for Ukraine’s revolution

Overnight, alleged undercover Russian special forces seized control of Simferopol airport, in the administrative capital of Crimea. The move comes less than 24 hours after a similar squad of shadowy, well-armed, Russian-speaking gunmen seized Simferopol’s parliament building and administrative complex. If anyone was in doubt what this meant, the gunmen left a clue. They raised a Russian flag above the parliament building.

Ukraine’s interior minister, Arsen Avakov, described the operations in Crimea in apocalyptic terms. What was unfolding in the south was “an armed invasion and occupation in violation of all international agreements and norms”, he posted on Facebook. That’s certainly how it seems.

Moscow’s military moves so far resemble a classically executed coup: seize control of strategic infrastructure, seal the borders between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine, invoke the need to protect the peninsula’s ethnic Russian majority. The Kremlin’s favourite news website, Lifenews.ru, was on hand to record the historic moment. Its journalists were allowed to video Russian forces patrolling ostentatiously outside Simferopol airport.

Wearing khaki uniforms – they had removed their insignia – and carrying Kalashnikovs, the soldiers seemed relaxed and in control. Other journalists filming from the road captured Russian helicopters flying into Crimea from the east. They passed truckloads of Russian reinforcements arriving from Sevastopol…

The Kremlin has denied any involvement in this very Crimean coup. But Putin’s playbook in the coming days and months is easy to predict. On Thursday, the Crimean parliament announced it would hold a referendum on the peninsula’s future status on 25 May. That is the same day Ukraine goes to the polls in fresh presidential elections.

The referendum can have only one outcome: a vote to secede from Ukraine. After that, Crimea can go one of two ways. It could formally join the Russian Federation. Or, more probably, it might become a sort of giant version of South Ossetia or Abkhazia, Georgia’s two Russian-occupied breakaway republics – a Kremlin-controlled puppet exclave, with its own local administration, “protected” by Russian troops and naval frigates. Either way, this amounts to Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.

From Putin’s perspective, a coup would be payback for what he regards as the western-backed takeover of Kiev by opposition forces – or fascists, as the Kremlin media calls them. The Kremlin argument runs something like this: if armed gangs can seize power in the Ukrainian capital, storming government buildings, why can’t pro-Russian forces do the same thing in Crimea? (It is another high-stakes manifestation of the Kremlin’s favourite doctrine, “whataboutism”. If Kosovo, then Crimea etc.)

There are, of course, signal differences. Despite the presence of radical Ukrainian nationalists, the vast majority of opposition demonstrators in Kiev were ordinary citizens. They were fed up with the corruption and misrule of President Viktor Yanukovych and his clique. It was a bottom-up revolution. The protesters were armed with little more than homemade shields, rubbish helmets and molotov cocktails.

In Crimea, by contrast, the shadowy Russian troops are equipped with the latest gear – they are professionals, not amateur homegrown revolutionaries. Ukrainian officials point to the GRU, Russian military intelligence. And the warp-speed tempo of events in Crimea is being dictated from the top, not the bottom – from Moscow, rather than the street.

The choreography has been impressive. Within hours of the airport seizure, Russian MPs proposed a bill in the state Duma simplifying procedures for getting Russian passports to Ukrainians. The goal, the MPs said, was to protect a “brotherly nation”. Russia’s most important opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, meanwhile, has been placed under house arrest for two months and denied access to the internet. The Kremlin, that most risk-averse of entities, has everything covered.

It only remains to be seen what role Yanukovych will play in this fast-moving drama. Despite having fled the country, he insists that he is still Ukraine’s legitimate president. He is giving a press conference on Friday in the southern Russian town of Rostov-on-Don, close to the Ukrainian border.

This may seem like a bizarre provincial venue. But there is method here too: Russia refuses to recognise Kiev’s new pro-western interim government as a legitimate partner. It is likely to continue to treat Yanukovych – whose regime is accused of plundering $70bn (£42bn) from Ukraine’s treasury – as the head of a government-in-exile. It may even seek to return him to Crimea to continue his “executive” functions. Given Yanukovych’s love of bling, Crimea’s sumptuous Livadia Palace – where Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill met to discuss Europe’s 1945 postwar carve-up – might serve as his new HQ.

Spare a thought, meanwhile, for Crimea’s Tartars. They are the peninsula’s original Turkic-speaking Muslim inhabitants. Well-educated and politically organised, they now number 300,000, 15% of Crimea’s population. They want to remain part of Ukraine. They support Kiev’s new pro-EU leadership.

They also have their own awful folk memories of Russian colonisation and exile: in 1944, Stalin deported the Tartars and other smaller groups to central Asia. They mostly came home after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Understandably, they may now fear being cast once again in the role of fifth columnists. So far the Kremlin has said nothing about their rights.

All of this presents the west with one of its biggest crises since the cold war. Russia has mounted a major land grab of a neighbouring sovereign state. How will the west react?

 

[GraceSofia]

Russia’s most important opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, meanwhile, has been placed under house arrest for two months and denied access to the internet.

See, this is what is bad about Russia. Lots of corruption. Yes, Putin is strong against homosexual propaganda and does some other positive things that make Christians like him, and he always acts in his country’s interests internationally and projects a dignified and tough image so people admire him, but there is this sort of thing going on in the background.

 

[OrdinaryMelkite]

Indeed.

 

[GaryTaylor]

Did Russia just call the Wests bluff? After those Olympic medals, that was it. And there’s an “asterisk” on those, “under protest”. CNN painted Putin as a thug, criminal.

cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/topvideos/2014/02/20/tsr-sciutto-putin-russia-ukraine-connection.cnn.html

 

[OrdinaryMelkite]

Did Russia just call the Wests bluff? After those Olympic medals, that was it. And there’s and “asterisk” on those, “under protest”. CNN painted Putin as a thug, criminal.

cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/topvideos/2014/02/20/tsr-sciutto-putin-russia-ukraine-connection.cnn.html

Meanwhile there are fascists as well in the Ukrainian government that have taken over from the moderate protesters and are now in charge. The media do not report that.

A plague on both their houses.

This could escalate and it most certainly will.

 

[gilliam]

Summary from The Guardian

• Putin ask for right to use armed forces in Ukraine.
• Ukrainians accuse Russia of refusing dialogue.
• European foreign ministers urge Russia to respect sovereignty of Ukraine and help reduce tension.
• Pro-Russian demonstrations take place in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Odessa and other towns.
• Reports of Russian troops attempting to take Ukrainian bases in Crimea.

(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

CNN broadcast images of Russian tanks on the move in Sevastopol Photograph: /CNN

Russian lawmakers are asking Putin to pull the Russian ambassador to the US. > I doubt this will happen.

 

[RPRPsych]

Putin is a strong man, but may not gamble world peace on such a backward State like Ukraine . Obama is a weak man, but he is not that stupid to enter yet another war where there is not even the hint of oil.

Exactly. That horse won’t jump. Putin will probably use other, more covert methods to achieve his aim, and Obama will try to sit it out as much as possible. This isn’t going to lead to World War III.

 

[Pickle_Breath]

I just wanted to say thanks to everyone here posting (especially Josie and Andrew) with resources and info. I’m learning so much but much is still over my head!

Blessings to everyone… Especially those in Ukraine.
Pickle

 

[grotto]

As an American, I do not apologize for America. The American people will have to correct what they do not like in our country. Elections are coming in 2014 and 2016. Wanting to help others when bad things happen is really a natural response for the average Yank. We are rather large and have all manner of sins. The reason for saying this is a way to help those who are about to have worse things happen to them. Don’t dance with the Devil!
Let the muscle roll on - use brains. Learn from history and come out on the free surviving end. Its not pulled off quick and easy. We all get who we voted for in an election. America did not do its homework and will have to do extra work. Stay calm; “Do not fear, for I am with you always” are the words of Our Lord.

 

[Vouthon]

Meanwhile there are fascists as well in the Ukrainian government that have taken over from the moderate protesters and are now in charge. The media do not report that.

A plague on both their houses.

This could escalate and it most certainly will.

I don’t think it is so much that the Western media are not reporting about Svoboda (last night on Newsnight, a BBC UK program watched by millions, this was the main segment in the broadcast for about half an hour), rather it is more that the protests were a grassroots, popular, bottom-up revolution by pro-Western Ukranians, The West cannot possibly dash these peoples hopes after they have endured so much to oust Yanukovych. Right now, the far right are small. They simply seized on the protests and “supported” them, partly to enhance their cred. However, this does not take away from the fact that the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms and the Fatherland Party, among other primary political organisations in the ‘opposition’, are not in any way fascists. These groups simply wanted to restore the 2004 constitution and move Ukraine away from Russian interference and into the European Union. These groups are liberal to liberal conservative in orientation. The protesters themselves are not even, on the whole, affiliated with either of these groups. Most are disillusioned with the corruption in Ukranian politics.

The majority of protesting Ukrainians are not strongly linked to any political faction and are actually apathetic to politics, which in Ukraine since independence has been dominated by corrupt oligarchs. Euromaidan protesters are on the whole pro-Europe, pro-democracy and fed up with corruption in their politics and Russian influence in their country.

Putin essentially wants to form “customs unions” with former Soviet Republics, because as he stated once before he believes that the collapse of the USSR was “the great geopolitical disaster of the twentieth century”. He is a homophobic fruitcake (well, actually, he is just using homophobia to stir up his masses and attack Western liberalism). His anti-homosexual diatribes strike accord with Western conservatives fed up with gay marriage and he knows this. He is a cynical manipulator of international opinion.

The protestors just want a brighter future for their country.

 

[Vouthon]

Exactly. That horse won’t jump. Putin will probably use other, more covert methods to achieve his aim, and Obama will try to sit it out as much as possible. This isn’t going to lead to World War III.

itv.com/news/2014-03-01/understanding-of-the-post-cold-war-era-is-at-stake-with-ukraine-crisis/

Given the fear of mutual destruction and the localized nature of this event, I would agree that WWIII is indeed far from probable or likely to be on the cards, however most commentators seriously fear a new Cold War. This ain’t good, especially for smaller post-Soviet republics that could become playing fields in proxy warfare between the West and Russia. Consider also an arms race, heightened international mistrust and tension, spy networks, cyber attacks and the fear, even without it happening in practice, of a miscalculation leading to a Great Power clash. This is not a hopeful prospect for the next decade.

Also, we should never be complacent about the possibility of a superpower clash between the likes of the US and China or Russia in the coming decades. Nuclear weapons are not a deterrent enough to secure transnational peace. It was this sort of complacency that dragged Europe into war in 1914 over an assassination in the Balkans, eventually drawing in even the USA in 1917. The world then was globalizing through trade, a book had come out in 1912 arguing that war between Britain and Germany was impossible because they were too close economically.

Complacency can be a grave error as our ancestors have proven to us.

 

[josie_L]

Out of curiosity, why would someone who worked with President Putin TWICE, post something that would make him look bad? Is it possible that he has an axe to grind? What is his motive? What does he have to gain from it? Surely, he is not doing it out of kindness? Thanks.

Those are loaded questions, i.e., why can’t he write about Putin since he’s worked with him, i.e., he probably knows him better than most?

 

[gilliam]

The protestors just want a brighter future for their country.

So do the pro-Russia folks in the Crimea. They feel there is more promise for them with aligning themselves with Moscow.

UN Security Council will meet today on this at 2pm Eastern by Britain’s request.

 

[josie_L]

I don’t think it is so much that the Western media are not reporting about Svoboda (last night on Newsnight, a BBC UK program watched by millions, this was the main segment in the broadcast for about half an hour), rather it is more that the protests were a grassroots, popular, bottom-up revolution by pro-Western Ukranians, The West cannot possibly dash these peoples hopes after they have endured so much to oust Yanukovych. Right now, the far right are small. They simply seized on the protests and “supported” them, partly to enhance their cred. However, this does not take away from the fact that the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms and the Fatherland Party, among other primary political organisations in the ‘opposition’, are not in any way fascists. These groups simply wanted to restore the 2004 constitution and move Ukraine away from Russian interference and into the European Union. These groups are liberal to liberal conservative in orientation. The protesters themselves are not even, on the whole, affiliated with either of these groups. Most are disillusioned with the corruption in Ukranian politics.

The majority of protesting Ukrainians are not strongly linked to any political faction and are actually apathetic to politics, which in Ukraine since independence has been dominated by corrupt oligarchs. Euromaidan protesters are on the whole pro-Europe, pro-democracy and fed up with corruption in their politics and Russian influence in their country.

Putin essentially wants to form “customs unions” with former Soviet Republics, because as he stated once before he believes that the collapse of the USSR was “the great geopolitical disaster of the twentieth century”. He is a homophobic fruitcake (well, actually, he is just using homophobia to stir up his masses and attack Western liberalism). His anti-homosexual diatribes strike accord with Western conservatives fed up with gay marriage and he knows this. He is a cynical manipulator of international opinion.

The protestors just want a brighter future for their country.

Well, that’s what I’ve been trying to say all along, but you said it with much more clarity. :clapping:

 

[GraceSofia]

So do the pro-Russia folks in the Crimea. They feel there is more promise for them with aligning themselves with Moscow.

UN Security Council will meet today on this at 2pm Eastern by Britain’s request.

I wonder if the rest of the Ukraine would be, well, okay with it if they lost only the Crimea?
They’d still have Odessa for a port.

 

[GaryTaylor]

The protestors just want a brighter future for their country.

Ukraine’s new government condemned the move. “We perceive Russia’s actions as direct aggression towards the sovereignty of Ukraine,” said acting President

The issue though is Crimea has opted for Putins help, he was readily available to supply, their Black Sea fleet in there, well, then apparently he sends thousands more in. So he’s all set up in Crimea. Obama got ahead of himself speaking implicit in regards to Ukraine and rightfully so. The country is divided. And I would think because of the worldwide financial issue. This also has the pacific ocean with China and Japan and the US in the sabre rattling stage. I think the West needs to calm down. Enforcing anything imo is a path to conflict. Putin isn’t giving up this area and they want his help and financial support, question is how do you work with this guy? I don’t see Russia as more financially stable or superior in military let alone with the West. However, the deteriorating world economy is leveling the playing field, such as with China and it proposal with its currency. Ukraine is disarmed.

 

[josie_L]

And how would you define Putin’s role in Russia? Democratic or dictatorial?

 

[Tenofovir]

This is not likely to lead to war. USA will not fight for Ukraine. I don’t think USA will fight for the new NATO countries either. USA has bases in Germany, Italy, UK and so on so there war could errupt.

War over Japan and Taiwan or Korea?

I’d say USA would fight over these countries:

100% sure Israel.

Most likely Western Europe.

Very likely Japan and Korea.

Rest not so sure… and doubtful.

But it’s not obvious that Putin will easily want to embarrass USA as obviously. The Russians and the US Government know very well how far each can go. This is not a game played by amateurs but the results have probably been established already behind closed doors and in telephone calls.

 

[josie_L]

Ukraine’s new government condemned the move. “We perceive Russia’s actions as direct aggression towards the sovereignty of Ukraine,” said acting President

The issue though is Crimea has opted for Putins help, he was readily available to supply, their Black Sea fleet in there, well, then apparently he sends thousands more in. So he’s all set up in Crimea. Obama got ahead of himself speaking implicit in regards to Ukraine and rightfully so. The country is divided. And I would think because of the worldwide financial issue. This also has the pacific ocean with China and Japan and the US in the sabre rattling stage. I think the West needs to calm down. Enforcing anything imo is a path to conflict. Putin isn’t giving up this area and they want his help and financial support, question is how do you work with this guy? I don’t see Russia as more financially stable or superior in military let alone with the West. However, the deteriorating world economy is leveling the playing field, such as with China and it proposal with its currency. Ukraine is disarmed.

And why has the Crimea asked for Putin’s help, has the new government issued discriminatory laws against Russian ethnics, i.e., have there been any attacks on the Crimea? Moreover, trade in the Ukraine is very dependent on Russia, i.e., too dependent (I believe 40% of Ukraine’s trade is with Russia).

 

[gilliam]

I think the West needs to calm down. Enforcing anything imo is a path to conflict. Putin isn’t giving up this area and they want his help and financial support, question is how do you work with this guy? .

1938 There are a lot of similarities