Ukraine

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This I do not understand, who’s side was Yanukovich actually on, initially? The EU didn’t play ball, and then ‘all change again’.

reuters.com/article/2013/12/19/us-ukraine-russia-deal-special-report-idUSBRE9BI0DZ20131219
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(Reuters) - On September 4, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich called a meeting of his political party for the first time in three years, summoning members to an old Soviet-era cinema called Zoryany in Kiev.

For three hours Yanukovich cajoled and bullied anyone who pushed for Ukraine to have closer ties to Russia. A handful of deputies from his Party of Regions complained that their businesses in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking east would suffer if Yanukovich didn’t agree to closer ties with Russia. That set him off.

“Forget about it … forever!” he shouted at them, according to people who attended the meeting. Instead the president argued for an agreement to deepen trade and other cooperation with the European Union.Yanukovich’s other hope was the IMF. It rescued Ukraine during the onset of the global financial crisis with a $16.5 billion loan in 2008 when Tymoshenko was prime minister. It also approved a $15.5 billion stand-by program for the Yanukovich government in 2010, disbursing about $3.5 billion, before freezing the program in 2011 because Ukraine failed to meet its conditions. A year later, the program had expired.

The IMF, like the EU, was unwilling to grant the sort of loans Yanukovich wanted under a new program. In a letter dated November 20, it told Ukraine that it would not soften conditions for a new loan and that it would offer only $5 billion, Oliynyk said. And Kiev would have to pay back almost the same amount next year, he said, as part of repayments for the earlier $16.5 billion loan.

The IMF declined to comment. According to IMF figures, Kiev should pay back $3.7 billion next year.

“We could not contain our emotions, it was unacceptable,” said Oliynyk.

Yanukovich was furious, party members said. He believed the IMF had ignored what he what he saw as reasonable demands to lift tough conditions for its earlier help, such as increasing the retirement age and freezing pensions and wages. Worse, the IMF was asking him to repay a loan that had been negotiated by his arch enemy, Tymoshenko.

Yanukovich was also offended when he found out Kiev would not be offered a firm prospect of full membership of the EU; he felt Ukraine was being treated as a lesser country to “even Poland”, with which it shares a border.

“Many citizens have got it wrong on European integration. It is not about membership, we are apparently not Poland, apparently we are not on a level with Poland … they are not letting us in really, we will be standing at the doors. We’re nice but we’re not Poles,” Oliynyk said. *
 
A top European Union official said Wednesday that the group is prepared to offer an aid package to Ukraine worth as much as $15 billion over the next two years.
José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, the union’s executive arm, said Wednesday that the offer includes 1.6 billion euros, or about $2.2 billion, in loans and €1.4 billion euros in grants from the union, as well as €3 billion in fresh credit from the European Investment Bank.
The aid will buttress the $1 billion in loan guarantees that Secretary of State John Kerry pledged to Ukraine while visiting Kiev on Tuesday. The economic lifeline is expected to help Ukraine’s embattled interim government amid spiraling debts and the threat of rising Russian gas prices. The funds will also help cushion the blow as the International Monetary Fund is expected to demand tough austerity measures as a condition of its own expected aid package.
Mr. Barroso didn’t immediately provide details over the timing and conditions of the loans.
The interim government in Ukraine has said that it will need $35 billion in international assistance over the next two years.
The Kremlin will probably indicate a softening stance since Brussels is partially giving what will appease Moscow. Gazprom wants to be paid.
 
Or that we’re walking around with a giant plank in our eye.

Thats a tired meme. **Now there’s a thought-out response. **

At least be constructive with your criticisms. What do you expect us to do about it? Occupy Ukraine and stand our troops toe-to-toe with the Russians to see who blinks?
The better question is “what should we have done previously”. No sense asking what to do about a house burning when the second floor collapses into the first floor. Better to have fixed the wiring long before.

And “tired old meme” though it may seem to the left, the truth, as well illustrated in this thread, is that the left excuses its own failures in governance by condemning this country and its people. A KGB murderer seizes part of another country, catching this administration totally flat-footed, and all the left can do is condemn America. And, oftentimes, as with the “grab from Mexico” accusation, the actual facts are distorted to fit the “evil America” ideology of the left; something the left does while simultaneously excusing evils committed by America’s enemies.

Talk about “tired old meme”, apologias for Russian imperialism has been the stock in trade of the left since the 1920s.
 
Joining this thread late, I know, but man this is a terrible crisis. Prayers for all those affected.

I’m wondering if this might indicate something of a desperation move on Putin’s part. He’s definitely lost popularity in Russia, and he may see this as a power play move to appease his more loyal supporters. Thoughts welcome!
 
I don’t know what the solution to this tragic situation is, but I think it’s really time for Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill to call for days of prayer and fasting before it escalates further.
I really could have alot more sympathy for the people in Ukraine who are currently in control if it weren't for the fact that all the big name leaders involved in the Euromaidan protests want to join the EU and NATO and align themselves with the West. To me this is the equivelent of wanting to commit suicide as a nation.
 
I don’t know what the solution to this tragic situation is, but I think it’s really time for Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill to call for days of prayer and fasting before it escalates further.
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                         I really could have alot more sympathy for the people in Ukraine who are currently in control if it weren't for the fact that all the big name leaders involved in the Euromaidan protests want to join the EU and NATO and align themselves with the West. To me this is the equivelent of wanting to commit suicide as a nation.
It seemed to work with Syria. And it definitely can’t hurt!
 
I’m wondering if this might indicate something of a desperation move on Putin’s part. He’s definitely lost popularity in Russia, and he may see this as a power play move to appease his more loyal supporters. Thoughts welcome!
I’d guess you could talk to ten Russians and get several opinions, but I would also guess that the wealthy businessmen who are in his circle are smacking their foreheads over this (potential sanctions, stock market down, etc). But they’re not doing it in front of Putin. 😉
 
From what I hear 75% polled in Russia want nothing to do with military conflict. Probably slightly higher here at the moment. I think the interconnected world see’s Putin for the aggressive threat he is. The question is how do you mitigate the damage and then proceed. Kerry is meeting this morning in Paris with Russian leaders. I guess we’ll see if Putin has Crimea secure enough to speak rationally yet. Russia still maintains no Russian troops invading. I think he called them local militias.
 
From what I hear 75% polled in Russia want nothing to do with military conflict. Probably slightly higher here at the moment. I think the interconnected world see’s Putin for the aggressive threat he is. The question is how do you mitigate the damage and then proceed. Kerry is meeting this morning in Paris with Russian leaders. I guess we’ll see if Putin has Crimea secure enough to speak rationally yet. Russia still maintains no Russian troops invading. I think he called them local militias.
There are no Russian troops invading, Putin’s playing a ‘silly’ game, as he was totally angered at the USA/EU intervention in the overturning of the Ukrainian government - as evidenced by the taped telephone conversation with Victoria Nuland - trying to ‘glue the new government’ together.

euronews.com/2014/02/07/us-embarrassed-by-apparent-hacked-phone-call-dismissing-eu-on-ukraine/ .

The timing of the revolt was also very fortuitous, as Putin was involved in the Sochi olympics and couldn’t do anything until they were over. So, he then made his mark, no doubt in anger, primarily against the West’s intervention in the whole scenario. Russia already has troops legally, in Crimea and IMO the addition of the local militia are just to show that he’s not too happy and is not taking it lying down. The present Ukraine government is viewed as illegal, in numerous countries, so he will also not want to end up with his only warm port being at risk in the future - if it all goes bellyup in Ukraine. I believe the Ukraine itself had little to do with his overall decision, more so his annoyance at outside powers intervening in his side of the world and on his doorstep.
 
The military entry into Ukraine was not a snap judgement - it was either Plan A or Plan B that Putin has had for a long time. Amazing that he thought Socchi would distract and have people applauding him while he pretended that the armament and manpower were just costumed like Russian Armed Forces. He will probably throw colored lights on the invasion and proclaim it Olympic entertainment! He may not appreciate that the world is his audience and he is not going to get a medal.:yeah_me: :nope:
 
The military entry into Ukraine was not a snap judgement - it was either Plan A or Plan B that Putin has had for a long time. Amazing that he thought Socchi would distract and have people applauding him while he pretended that the armament and manpower were just costumed like Russian Armed Forces. He will probably throw colored lights on the invasion and proclaim it Olympic entertainment! He may not appreciate that the world is his audience and he is not going to get a medal.:yeah_me: :nope:
He’ll probably get medals, from those he wants medals from.
 
From what I hear 75% polled in Russia want nothing to do with military conflict. Probably slightly higher here at the moment.
Regarding the Ukraine crisis – polls indicate the Russian opinions may be favorable to what’s going on - at the moment.
Based on personal experience in Russia, I can vouch for the fact that today’s Russians do have opinions that are well thought out and expressed. And because I also keep up with their polls, I can assure you that the polls aren’t rigged, or at least not always. Plenty of polls are released that are not favorable to the regime and that probably irk Putin. But even these are hard to find unless you read Russian or even a few European newspapers.
The Guardian in the United Kingdom published an article Monday reviewing Russian polling and interviewing Russian pollsters. It concluded that “most Russians believe upheaval in Kiev was a western-sponsored coup and that Crimea was never Ukrainian.” Putin and most Russians saw TV footage of Kiev burning, the capital of a neighboring state and former client-nation, and became uncomfortable…
The voice of the State in Russia seems to be ripe w/ propaganda to keep the Russians very uncomfortable.
I think the interconnected world see’s Putin for the aggressive threat he is.
Lithuanian President Grybauskaite confirmed this Monday . when stating, "Thanks be to God, we are NATO members,"

Ask leaders in Estonia, Latvia or Poland if they have concerns about the Putin lead Kremlin.
The question is how do you mitigate the damage and then proceed.
It will be helpful if the West properly assessed the threat. One thing can be learned from this crisis - the Kremlin propaganda apparatus is still sharp as ever. You’d think comrade Vladimir was still pounding the pavement in East Germany.

So far Putin appears to be engaged in “low risk and high gain” maneuvers. It seems he wants a wee bit more than just the bridge to Crimea And probably expects the Europeans to bite their tongues on sensitive issues.

But if the group(s) he claims to be acting as autonomous groups of citizens of the southern and eastern regions start spilling blood - things change overnight.

And one of Putin’s worst fears is anyone marching in Bolotnaya Square, Moscow.
 
Regarding the Ukraine crisis – polls indicate the Russian opinions may be favorable to what’s going on - at the moment.

The voice of the State in Russia seems to be ripe w/ propaganda to keep the Russians very uncomfortable.

Lithuanian President Grybauskaite confirmed this Monday . when stating, "Thanks be to God, we are NATO members,"

Ask leaders in Estonia, Latvia or Poland if they have concerns about the Putin lead Kremlin.

It will be helpful if the West properly assessed the threat. One thing can be learned from this crisis - the Kremlin propaganda apparatus is still sharp as ever. You’d think comrade Vladimir was still pounding the pavement in East Germany.

So far Putin appears to be engaged in “low risk and high gain” maneuvers. It seems he wants a wee bit more than just the bridge to Crimea And probably expects the Europeans to bite their tongues on sensitive issues.

But if the group(s) he claims to be acting as autonomous groups of citizens of the southern and eastern regions start spilling blood - things change overnight.

And one of Putin’s worst fears is anyone marching in Bolotnaya Square, Moscow.
If they get the blame for the shooting, of course, never mind who may actually instigate it. A recent phone leak, out now on youtube, between the Estonian foreign minister and an EU minister, has the Estonian minister state *“there is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers, it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition.” *

Who gave the orders to the snipers, no-one knows at present.

The phone tapping leaks by the Russians are quite amusing - at least they know they won’t be lambasted, by ‘others’, for doing this! :rolleyes: 😃
 
Two delicious ironies:
1.In Putin’s Press Conference he denounced the overthrow of the Government as the act of a violent mob acting illegally against a lawful government. He really should study history! 1917: the revolutionary and violent mob led by Lenin overthrew the lawful government. Putin owes his very existence to that moment as a dyed in the wool Communist

2 'Germany refuses to consider economic sanctions against Russia because she obtains much of her energy from Russia!
 
If they get the blame for the shooting, of course, never mind who may actually instigate it.
The one’s with the guns easily lose that one.
A recent phone leak, out now on youtube, between the Estonian foreign minister and an EU minister, has the Estonian minister state *“there is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers, it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition.” *

The phone tapping leaks by the Russians are quite amusing - at least they know they won’t be lambasted, by ‘others’, for doing this! :rolleyes: 😃
The leak of the phone conversation of Assistant Secretary of State Nuland certainly makes the HOF of snooper bloopers but Radio Moscow errr the Voice of Russia posting the audio/video that included some graphic photos of corpses of those shot by the unidentified sniper. I didn’t find that part humerous. That’s Supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s kind of comedy.
 
The one’s with the guns easily lose that one.

The leak of the phone conversation of Assistant Secretary of State Nuland certainly makes the HOF of snooper bloopers but Radio Moscow errr the Voice of Russia posting the audio/video that included some graphic photos of corpses of those shot by the unidentified sniper. I didn’t find that part humerous. That’s Supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s kind of comedy.
I didn’t actually look at it, just read the transcript and that the tape was on youtube. I was referring to the recent Russian ‘phone tapping’ leaks as being humerous due to the fact they are so blatantly doing it - nothing more sinister.
 
A recent phone leak, out now on youtube, between the Estonian foreign minister and an EU minister, has the Estonian minister state *“there is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers, it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition.” *
What does it mean?
 
Patriarch Kirill added that it is the Orthodox religion that creates genuine unity between Slavic peoples.
I don’t mean to disparage the Patriarch’s statement, but the Poles are overwhelmingly Roman Catholic.
 
Two delicious ironies:
1.In Putin’s Press Conference he denounced the overthrow of the Government as the act of a violent mob acting illegally against a lawful government. He really should study history! 1917: the revolutionary and violent mob led by Lenin overthrew the lawful government. Putin owes his very existence to that moment as a dyed in the wool Communist
Putin would respond that he is no longer a KGB agent but the democratically elected president of a free country.
2 'Germany refuses to consider economic sanctions against Russia because she obtains much of her energy from Russia!
It’s either that or cutting deals with Russia to bypass other EU nations in gas provision. 🙂
 
What does it mean?
What does it mean - just someone’s opinion, after visiting Kiev, during the riots. It could be true or it may not be.

The call took place after Estonia’s Foreign Minister Urmas Paet visited Kiev on February 25, following the peak of clashes between the pro-EU protesters and security forces in the Ukrainian capital.

*During the conversation, Paet stressed that “there is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers, it was not Yanukovich, but it was somebody from the new coalition.”

According to the Estonian FM, “all the evidence shows” that the “same snipers” at Maidan were shooting at people from both sides – the police and the protesters.

EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton reacted to the information by saying: “Well, yeah…that’s, that’s terrible,” adding that the matter is worth investigating. *
 
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