Despite all the facile comparisons being made by Republicans, this isn’t Munich in 1938.
Bush has nothing to do with it.
They don’t even have to close the Strait—just making it more dangerous will cause the insurers to raise premium rates for the oil tanker owners, and they’ll pass on the cost to the consumer at the gas pump in the form of higher prices.
And I have yet to hear any Republican say how he’d protect ordinary people from the consequences of hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Do you seriously think they give a flying scat omelet? I don’t.
I have little doubt Obama will do what needs to be done, if push comes to shove. But it’s not a decision to undertake lightly. That’s a far-off place, at the end of a LONG supply line, and it’s hedged in with land in almost every direction—plenty of opportunity for all sorts of attacks.
THIS IS A REAL, SERIOUS, BIG DEAL AND EVERYONE IN THE WORLD KNOWS IT … EXCEPT THE AMERICANS.
There are seven maritime choke points.
These have been well known for more than a hundred years. Actually MUCH longer than that. Prior to the present Suez Canal, there was a smaller one used by the Chinese to trade with Italy … which is why northern Italy grows rice and has a silk industry.
And you need also to add the narrow passages such as Gibraltar and places in the Mediterranean.
And you also need to add the two passages around the southern tips of Africa and South America. Cape of Good Hope and Cape Horn.
The reason for the need for a water route from Europe to China and Japan is that the Muslims closed the overland route.
205.254.135.7/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=330
Excerpt below: and click on the link for a decent map.
Maritime transit chokepoints are narrow channels along widely used global sea routes. Because about one half of the world’s crude oil supply is moved by tankers on maritime shipping routes, world oil transit chokepoints are a critical part of global energy security.
Source: EIA (data estimates based on APEX tanker data)
The international market is dependent upon reliable transport. The blockage of a chokepoint, even temporarily, can lead to a substantial disruption in energy markets.
Closure of some chokepoints would require the use of longer alternate routes, thereby increasing transportation costs, but for other chokepoints, there are limited alternate routes.
As a result, there are existing, planned and proposed pipelines in many of these areas to bypass such chokepoints. EIA has compiled and analyzed data for seven major world oil transit chokepoints, summarized below:
The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, saw an oil flow of 15.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2009 when flows through this Strait accounted for roughly a third of all seaborne traded oil, or 17 percent of oil traded worldwide.
The Strait of Malacca, located between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, links the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean. Malacca is the shortest sea route between Persian Gulf suppliers and the Asian markets. It is the key chokepoint in Asia with an estimated 13.6 million bbl/d flow in 2009.
The Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline in Egypt are major routes for transit from the Persian Gulf to Mediterranean Countries and North America. Their closure would add an estimated 6,000 miles of travel around the continent of Africa. In 2009, total oil flows through the Suez were 1.8 million bbl/d, and SUMED flows were approximately 1.1 million bbl/d.
The Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, links tankers originating in the Persian Gulf to the Suez Canal/SUMED pipeline and beyond. Its location, between the horn of Africa and Yemen, has made transit through this Strait vulnerable to piracy in recent years. An estimated 3.2 million bbl/d flowed through this waterway in 2009.
The Bosporus Straits divide Asia from Europe, connecting the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara. The 17-mile waterway supplies Mediterranean countries with oil from the Caspian Sea Region. In 2009, approximately 2.9 million bbl/d of oil flowed through these Straits.
The Panama Canal, while an important route connecting the Pacific Ocean with the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean, plays a smaller role in world oil transit, mainly because of tanker size restrictions. In 2009, roughly 0.8 million bbl/d of oil, mostly refined products, traveled through the Canal.
Also, the Danish Straits are becoming an increasingly important route for Russian oil exports to Europe. In 2009, an estimated 3.3 million bbl/d of oil flowed westward through this waterway.
