Out of respect for the reigning occupant of the chair of St. Peter, I prefer to refrain from speculating on such matters.
I am very pleased with the pontificate of Francis, also, so I have no inclination to look ahead just now to the days after his shepherding of the flock comes to an end.
With that being said, in light of the precedent set in 2013 by Benedict’s “abdication” of the Petrine office, the field of hypothesizing future
papabili before the announcement of a conclave is no longer fraught with the “bad taste” it once was.
So, in a purely academic sense, if a conclave were to be called now in 2020, I would expect Cardinals Pietro Parolin, Matteo Zuppi and Luis Antonio Tagle to be the frontrunners.
Even though people often quote that phrase, “he who goes into a conclave the pope comes out a cardinal”, the reality is that leading contenders typically do become Pope.
Pius XII, Paul VI and Benedict XVI were each the respective frontrunners in their time. Even John Paul II, though his non-Italian heritage was a surprise, had been a known quantity among his fellow Cardinals after delivering a famous Lenten address in 1976. So Paul VI had already “upped” his standing in the College.
Our present holy father, Pope Francis, had been the runner up in the 2005 conclave that elected Benedict. As early as 2002, then Cardinal Bergoglio had been cited by the Vaticanista Sandro Magister as a future Pontiff:
http://chiesa.espresso.repubblica.it/articolo/6893&eng=y.html
He´s the latest Latin-American rumored for the papacy, and he´s already at the head among the possible successors of Peter. If elected, he would be the first Jesuit pope.
Midway through November, his colleagues wanted to elect him president of the Argentine bishops´ conference. He refused. But if there had been a conclave, it would have been difficult for him to refuse the election to the papacy, because he´s the one the cardinals would vote for resoundingly, if they were called together to choose immediately the successor to John Paul II.
He´s Jorge Mario Bergoglio, archbishop of Bueno Aires.
That didn’t happen in 2005 but in 2013 Bergoglio did become the Supreme Pontiff.
So, the moral of this mini-history tour is that if Cardinal Tagle is currently being touted as the most
papabile and is being given appointment after appointment by Pope Francis (as he is with one Vatican office after another), it is not a bad bet to anticipate that he may well follow the trajectory of Pope Paul VI: the candidate par excellence for the Papacy who happens to ultimately ascend “the throne” in due course.
And really, he reminds me of Paul VI in terms of his impeccable and growing pedigree of credentials: he is the President of Caritas International, Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples
and President of the Catholic Biblical Federation. There are few of his brother Cardinals who can match that resume.
Whether he becomes pope or not one day, he will certainly be a big hitter at the next conclave and a very powerful figure in the Vatican for a long time to come (his being 63 years old).