Who's Going to Pay the Bills?: Purpose-Driven Coronavirus Business Shutdowns Cause Economic Catastrophe

[phaster]

How do you guys feel about getting takeout during coronavirus? You think it’s safe? I just don’t see how restaurants are allowed to stay open at all. Those preparing your food might have the virus, those handling your money don’t change gloves between every customer (which makes the whole glove wearing law useless) - it just seems so unsafe to me. Do you guys still get takeout?

there is risk in everything,… so FWIW when I do order takeout I consider that scientific fact that the covid-19 virus is heat sensitive (basically it gets destroyed at temps greater than 160 degrees or thereabouts)

so to lessen the odds of a virus in my takeout I select only dishes that are “hot” for example soups and other meals that are “steaming”

personally I avoid any takeout food that is cool to the touch,… which includes unheated deli sandwiches, salads, ice cold soft drinks and milk shakes

 

[JoeFreedom]

If by that sense, no one could do anything or go anywhere. We might as well give it all up and say to heck with it.

 

[LisaB]

Not really. When I buy groceries, I later cook them, so that presumably kills the virus. I also don’t have anyone pack my groceries, so there is less exposure.

 

[JoeFreedom]

It’s like @phaster stated, there is risk in everything and there are myriad ways when you go out to get the virus, because in order to continue living (since most of us don’t have our own farms and supply chains to self-sustain indefinitely), we need to get food. Everyone of those truckers long-hauling vital supplies to keep our struggling economy going, need food, and this is likely going to be in the form of take-out.

And are you wiping down the food packages, your plastic or paper bags, wearing gloves, a mask… how long for?

 

[LisaB]

I might start getting hot takeout in May and warming up again in the microwave (which I do anyway). I usually live on takeout, I cook at most once a week. Apparently there are many people out there who cook most nights. I tip my hat to them, I don’t know how they do it. I’m going nuts over here after cooking for like 3 weeks.

 

[LisaB]

And are you wiping down the food packages, your plastic or paper bags, wearing gloves, a mask… how long for?

Yup! No gloves or mask because studies show that unless it’s a proper mask warn properly, it does little to protect you, but yes I wipe down food packages with disinfectant and wash all produce with soap and hot water. Too paranoid? My son thinks so.

 

[JoeFreedom]

“Wear the gloves and wipe down the groceries so those poor people don’t get us sick!”

That’s not at all what I said. If that is what you believe I said, it was not at all. You are inferring that I have some sort of class hatred of grocery store workers because they are poor?!

Your original comment about how it is risky to get takeout food was being compared to going to the grocery store, Same risk unless you wipe everything down from the grocery store, so what’s the added risk of takeout?

And now I must have somehow called the fast food workers low class too…geesh.

 

[Inquisitor85]

Economies more than anything else run on confidence, unlock too early deaths will spike, infection rates will soar, and your healthcare system will be overrun resulting in a long term collapse in consumer confidence followed by a long, long depression. The global economy is currently paused, not destroyed, unlock too early and you will devastate it.

I’d also point out that for a church that you follow that argues that you should be “pro-life from birth to natural death” that some here are very willing to sacrifice the vulnerable on the altar of the DJIA or FTSE.

 

[AlNg]

I keep seeing these “looking at the numbers it isn’t that bad” pieces.

Yes. It is true. “The figures are just so unreliable.”
" There’s no direct evidence that the lockdowns are working’"

‘There’s no direct evidence that the lockdowns are working’ - spiked

 

[PetraG]

Economies more than anything else run on confidence, unlock too early deaths will spike, infection rates will soar, and your healthcare system will be overrun resulting in a long term collapse in consumer confidence followed by a long, long depression. The global economy is currently paused, not destroyed, unlock too early and you will devastate it.

I’d also point out that for a church that you follow that argues that you should be “pro-life from birth to natural death” that some here are very willing to sacrifice the vulnerable on the altar of the DJIA or FTSE.

Our nation has over 11 million adults over all age groups who are estimated to be seriously at risk for complications or death if infected with COVID-19, and not everyone who dies of this could have been identified in advance as being in an at-risk group.

It will be onerous to the extreme on our economy if we have to wait for a vaccine to open up on our physical distancing measures. Our best hope is to tamp down the outbreaks well enough and expand our testing and tracking capacity by enough that public health departments can keep outbreaks identified, isolated and contained. That could be attainable much sooner.

(I base the 11 million number on this estimate, which is to say it is based on polling and not the census or something):

Estimated Number of U.S. Adults at Risk of Death If 100% Were Infected With COVID-19

Total people	Percentage with at least one condition	Percentage at severe risk	Total people at severe risk
#	%	%	#
Age group
18-29	53,657,553	6.63	0.55	296,656
30-39	42,518,642	13.60	1.14	483,969
40-49	40,909,501	27.44	2.55	1,041,192
50-59	43,310,372	45.05	4.80	2,080,565
60-69	36,150,682	61.15	7.34	2,654,195
70-79	20,706,539	75.14	12.36	2,559,528
80+	12,122,561	78.98	16.72	2,026,659
U.S. adults	249,375,850	11,142,765
Note: Figures for “Total people at severe risk” may not calculate perfectly because percentages in the table are rounded to two decimal places.
GALLUP NATIONAL HEALTH AND WELL-BEING INDEX

11 Million in U.S. at Serious Risk If Infected With COVID-19

Mind you, as far as I know that is based only on the estimated prevalence of medical conditions and not the availability of medical care, which tends to be lower in rural and poorer areas.

 

[Inquisitor85]

The best bet that any economy has if you’re determined that it must be opened up is to gasp/breathe it. Essentially as cases come down below a threshold level open up and as they climb back up over that level again tighten the controls back up.

I did note someone up near the top commented that this could be used to tighten up social freedoms long term. It’s highly unlikely given that most governments are encouraging people to go out in masks and gloves making them harder to identify, people are sending so many digital messages that sigint resources are overwhelmed and people are stockpiling food, medicines and in the US specifically ammunition. Not exactly what you want if you’re looking to tighten controls.

 

[PetraG]

He says: We can reasonably question the assumptions of the models, for example. The accuracy of the models, and their predictions of how many people will be infected and die, depend on things like the transmissibility of the virus. But that isn’t something we know very accurately at the moment.

I think he knows that transmissibility of the virus isn’t a constant. R-naught is not a physical property of a virus. It is a combination of the properties of the disease and the social and physical condition of the population into which it is dropped.

Here’s the thing: The emergency departments and ICU’s are overwhelmed where the outbreak is widespread and the people who work in them are facing a shortfall of the protective gear needed to work safely. I think we all agree it is unthinkable to do nothing to slow community spread of the virus. It isn’t just a matter of how many people will have died or suffered serious consequences within 24 months. It is a matter of whether the people trying to save their lives were given the best chance of doing so without sacrificing their own lives or the lives of the people living with them.

There is something known about how health-based limitations on the public have affected serious outbreaks with similar diseases, such as influenza. I agree with him that there are reasons to avoid “doing the most” when the evidence from past epidemics is that the improvement in outcome would be small compared to the cost of the intervention. So if he’s just saying that while the hospitals probably would see a difference if the bars are closed down but probably won’t know whether or not the garden center was allowed to operate on a limited basis or people were allowed to leave their house for a walk without their dogs, sure.

 

[JoeFreedom]

I find several parts of this article intriguing and validating some of my initial thoughts.

Maybe that is because the virus spreads in a different way than we thought. Maybe some people actually have immunity based on other coronaviruses that are already out there in the population.

"If you change those numbers, it makes a huge difference in the number of cases you would expect in a given time. Really, the case for lockdown depends on the number of cases coming through, which is very important for people to distinguish from the number of people who are going to die of this virus. The fact is, Pandora’s Box is now open. This virus is spreading in the population. There is no evidence whatsoever that we are going to be able to put it back in its box. So it is going to spread through the population at a certain speed. And after a year or two, the number of people who are going to have died from it is probably going to be similar either way – it is just a question of the speed at which those people are dying.

 

[po18guy]

Fatalistic doomsayers, methinks. The logical error is that this assumes a static, inevitable decline and fall. We are a living and dynamic population in a living and dynamic economy.

We grew right back out of the great depression (mom and dad lived through it), and we can recover from this. nd, what about the rest of the world, huh?

Is it thus armageddon? By no means! It is a stumble and fall, but just as we did when we were learning to walk, we get up and try again.

Yeah, but…yeah, but…yeah, but…

No “yeah, buts”!

 

[Anrakyr]

We’re in a very hard place.

You’re in a very bad place, not everyone here is American. I’m fine.
Not great but fine.

There isn’t a single best answer,

Yes there is; stay home unless you’re needed and wait it out.

It’s not my fault Americans choose a crappy fractured government system. It’s not my fault your states are bidding against each other for medical equipment. It’s not my fault you elected an Annoying Orange for president who didn’t use his powers to retool the country when you had the chance.

The rest of the world understands what needs to be done.

 

[SugarMagnolia]

You’re half right. This is indeed happening. Just like we lost rights and dignity after 9/11, we’re losing even more now.

more social controls, making the average person … a groverling, scraping wretch who will tolerate anything for a few scraps from our rulers’ table.

But this part is dead wrong:

I think we’re going to see that this was all way overblown

This is not overblown. You have no idea what it’s like living in a high-impact area. It’s a nightmare.

 

[PetraG]

The issue is what “unless you’re needed” means.

 

[PetraG]

We have already seen this is not overblown.

If you’re saying it is overblown, exactos bad did things need to get in hospitals to qualify with you?

 

[JoeFreedom]

You just have all the answers. You sound quite smug about it too. Won’t win you over anyone to your way of thinking that’s certain.

 

[Anrakyr]

You just have all the answers.

No I don’t.
What I have is an eidetic memory. One of the perks of autism.

You sound quite smug about it too.

The downside of autism, I don’t care about your feelings, just the facts. If you can’t dispute them and can’t move on to acceptance that’s a personal problem. I wasn’t built to ease people into things. You either prove me wrong with a fact I can’t dispute in which case good show or capitulate to mine.

If you want someone to pat your shoulder and say “there there” I’m not your guy.