Who's Going to Pay the Bills?: Purpose-Driven Coronavirus Business Shutdowns Cause Economic Catastrophe

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Erikaspirit16 said:
No question. However, it’s sort of like saying a 6’9" basketball player and a 4’ woman MIGHT be the same size because your measuring tape wasn’t that accurate. We’re not talking tiny numbers here, we’re talking orders of magnitude.
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Haha, but we’re also talking about government agencies doing the measurements, who are orders of magnitude stupider and more corrupt than than the average Joe.
 
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Yea, not really. The director, two months ago made a statement that it might likely be 10 times higher based on antibody testing.

That is in now way the same as accepting that the numbers are 10 times higher.

Those old spinning type dance moves are way out of date.
 
Socrates92 said:
Haha, but we’re also talking about government agencies doing the measurements, who are orders of magnitude stupider and more corrupt than than the average Joe.
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What I find inexplicably puzzling is that the same people who say gov. agencies are “orders of magnitude stupider and more corrupt than the average Joe” are generally the same ones who believe in super-complicated conspiracies and all-powerful conspirators in the “deep state.” Which is it? Idiots or supermen?
 
farronwolf said:
Yea, not really. The director, two months ago made a statement that it might likely be 10 times higher based on antibody testing.

That is in now way the same as accepting that the numbers are 10 times higher.

Those old spinning type dance moves are way out of date.
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I stand by that. It was after all, the CDC conceding that the actual infected numbers were considerably higher than the number of confirmed cases.

This is firmly backed by studies done in March and April by Stanford University in which they sampled the populations in Santa Clara County (that is Silicon Valley’s formal name) and Los Angeles County which were the first two areas aside from Washington state to get confirmed cases. Based on their findings, they estimated the infected were about 50 to 85 times the confirmed cases in Santa Clara County and about 25 to 52 times the confirmed cases in Los Angeles County.

While the test methodologies and the numbers they produced were heavily questioned at the time, the conclusion was still inescapable: there were/are considerably more actual infected cases than confirmed cases. This is also backed up by studies of samples from sewage. The only debate since has been how many more? With considerably expanded testing capabilities in the months since, those multiples declined as expected, but they did not go away. So I think that ten times is a reasonable guess and that’s what the CDC director said recently and I don’t think he said that in a vacuum.

You say no way, no how? Links please.
 
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Erikaspirit16 said:
What I find inexplicably puzzling is that the same people who say gov. agencies are “orders of magnitude stupider and more corrupt than the average Joe” are generally the same ones who believe in super-complicated conspiracies and all-powerful conspirators in the “deep state.” Which is it? Idiots or supermen?
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I’m not a believer in conspiracy theories. After all, everyone conspires about something. Conspiring is one of the most human activities there is. At work, we conspire to get something over the boss. The kids conspire over all kinds of things germane to them. Young lovers conspire to get together. Businessmen conspire to make a deal. Politicians conspire to pass a bill. Garden variety stuff.

But I am a believer in the corrupting effect of money. It is not for no reason we say “follow the money”. It is not for no reason that we suspect Big Pharma’s corrupting effect on Congress and other governmental institutions. The same with the military-industrial complex. How about the executives who use the Fed’s free money to issue stock buybacks to feather their nests? How about the bureaucrats who stuff their pensions and do everything they can to make sure their jobs never go away? “Follow the money” is one of the most useful heuristics when studying what is going on in many environments.
 
Are the number of cases greater than the confirmed cases, most certainly. Are they 10 times higher, we actually don’t know. These are bases on models.

Take the number of confirmed cases, as a percentage of testing done total, it works out to about 8%. So even if 8% of the total population, if we could test the entire population, had the same rate as the tested rate vs confirmed rate it would only be about 26 million total, not 10 times the number of cases which would indicate that number should be 50 million.

How many cases does Stanford report as confirmed? The same numbers as the CDC. Saying something is likely, and stating that it is fact are two different things. Science is based on scientific processes, not guesses.


Oh, just a side note. My mother in law whom we had the funeral for as a result of Covid yesterday, certainly wasn’t making any money off of any conspiracy theory. Nor were the three other residents of the skilled nursing facility where she lived who died yesterday.

Those are actual, tangible facts.
 
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farronwolf said:
How many cases does Stanford report as confirmed? The same numbers as the CDC. Saying something is likely, and stating that it is fact are two different things. Science is based on scientific processes, not guesses.
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I didn’t say it as fact. I said “may be around”. Not sure how you got “fact” out of that. Good reading comprehension there.

We’ll never know the exact multiple; that would require every last person in a given area to get tested. But based on everything I’ve read and based on the CDC director’s acceptance, I believe ten times the confirmed cases is a reasonably scientific guess. Could be more, could be less.

If the point you wanted to make is that this is not a definite number, consider your point made. If the point you wanted to make is that this multiple is way less than ten, then no, I do not accept that.
 
Zzyzx_Road said:
The CDC has accepted that the actual number of cases may be around ten times the number of confirmed cases. Note “actual” vs “confirmed”. I
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And again, the CDC hasn’t accepted the 10x number. Do you see that posted on their website?

The CDC director may believe or accept something but that doesn’t make it true. What do all the peers say, or is his belief a one or two off idea?

Kind of like global warming. There are plenty of people who say, it isn’t a real thing because this guy said it isn’t. But the vast majority of scientist say it is real. I believe the vast majority.

If and when a large percentage of virologist say we are at X rate, I will be fully on board with that.
 
Zzyzx_Road said:
But I am a believer in the corrupting effect of money. It is not for no reason we say “follow the money”. It is not for no reason that we suspect Big Pharma’s corrupting effect on Congress and other governmental institutions. The same with the military-industrial complex. How about the executives who use the Fed’s free money to issue stock buybacks to feather their nests? How about the bureaucrats who stuff their pensions and do everything they can to make sure their jobs never go away? “Follow the money” is one of the most useful heuristics when studying what is going on in many environments.
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We certainly agree on all that! Once an interviewer told me “You’re very idealistic, aren’t you?” He meant it in a negative way–“You aren’t a team player.” My response was “I just don’t want to kill people or steal from them.” (Both of which I had been complicit in in previous jobs.)
 
Erikaspirit16 said:
What I find inexplicably puzzling is that the same people who say gov. agencies are “orders of magnitude stupider and more corrupt than the average Joe” are generally the same ones who believe in super-complicated conspiracies and all-powerful conspirators in the “deep state.” Which is it? Idiots or supermen?
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Ha, I love your stereotyping. The answer is pretty simply though. Generals need pawns.
 
Zzyzx_Road said:
The CDC has accepted that the actual number of cases may be around ten times the number of confirmed cases. Note “actual” vs “confirmed”. In that light, the death rate that was thought to be about 3% is a lot closer to 0.3% which is roughly close to what the Stanford study predicted months ago.
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I’ve said all along that it goes both ways–the death rate is probably, as you say, a lower number because there are more Covid-19 cases out there that are undetected. But the death rate could probably also be higher because of two factors: 1) people are dying of Covid but the death certificate says something else (I earlier mentioned a nursing home near us where early on the families refused to have testing done on the bodies of their relatives because they thought the tests could be better used elsewhere); and in rural or non-hot spot areas people were dying, but they weren’t tested. 2) A lot of people died because of Covid but not OF Covid. People who had heart attacks or strokes but were afraid to go to the emergency room, etc.

And, as I’ve said before, the only way to really get an estimate of the death rate is to compare deaths in a certain month in 2020 with the same month in previous years, adjusting for whatever factors you can.

The NYT has just published an “excess deaths” chart-

(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)
 
whatistrue said:
That doesn’t even come close to answering the question.
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Why not? You seemed to be conflating the deep state (which is not really a governmental agency) and run-of-the-mill government agencies, which are pretty dumb. I simply pointed out the different and showed how the two views were not in logical contradiction.
 

While novel coronavirus cases have spiked across several parts of Europe, including Spain, France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, Sweden—where a countrywide lockdown was never issued—continues to report a downward trend in new cases and new deaths.

As of Sunday, the latest death rate in Sweden (deaths per 100,000 people) was reported to be 56.40. The figure is lower than that reported in the U.K. (69.60), Spain (60.88) and Italy (58.16), according to the latest report Sunday by Johns Hopkins University.

The U.K. currently has the world’s fourth highest death toll, while Spain and Italy (which have the sixth highest and eighth highest death tolls, respectively) were formerly Europe’s two countries worst hit by the outbreak.

Sweden’s latest case-fatality ratio (portion of deaths compared to total cases) was reported to be 7.1 percent. The figure is more than half the percentage reported in the U.K. (15.1 percent), half that of Italy and Belgium (each reporting 14.2 percent) and nearly half that of France (13.4 percent), according to Johns Hopkins University.
COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people in Sweden vs. Europe
Source: Johns Hopkins University (as of August 2)

Sweden: 56.40
Belgium: 86.19
U.K.: 69.60
Spain: 60.88
Italy: 58.16
 
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It’s a good thing that President Trump did not pay any attention to the Democrats (Trump banned foreign travel from China on Jan. 31), who didn’t want to do anything about covid-19 in January and February:

Former Vice President Joe Biden was harshly critical, tweeting March 12, “A wall will not stop the coronavirus. Banning all travel from Europe — or any other part of the world — will not stop it.” This followed Biden’s earlier attack on Trump’s international travel restrictions during a campaign speech in which he said, “This is no time for Donald Trump’s record of hysteria and xenophobia, hysterical xenophobia … and fearmongering.”




President Trump also offered China proactive help in January to stop the spread. China refused.

President Trump did an exemplary job overcoming predecessor and the woefully unprepared states’ Governors:



In many places, that shortage of ventilators and beds is the result of state-level regulations—known as “certificate of need” laws, or CON laws—that artificially limit the supply of medical equipment. Those laws help politically powerful hospital chains limit regional competition and inflate health care costs, but they also create shortages of medical equipment that could prove disastrous during a pandemic.
Certificate of need laws are on the books in 35 states. Not good. Nevertheless, everybody who needed a ventilator got one.

In answer to some miscellaneous comments in this thread: the riots and destruction occur in cities overseen by Democratic Party mayors: Minneapolis, Seattle, Portland, Kenosha, New York, etc.
And, proof that America is the best country for most minorities to live is that more than a million immigrants choose to live in the generous United States each year. Far more than any other country, they choose to immigrate to the United States.
 
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COVID-19 deaths are over-reported: Dr. Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause.



“We’re seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from Covid. We’re seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose, that are above excess, than we had as background, than we are seeing deaths from Covid.”
Let that sink in. Even Redfield admits lockdowns are now killing at least two times the number of Americans as COVID-19.
https://www.christianpost.com/news/...an-covid-19-during-pandemic-cdc-director.html


California continues to keep some churches closed, and debilitating restrictions on others. California continues to fine churches for holding indoor services, like North Valley Baptist Church in Santa Clara County (source: msn.com). Mass is essential.
Suicide deaths higher than COVID-19 deaths amid lockdown, CDC chief warns | News | LifeSite
Doctors raise alarm about health effects of continued coronavirus shutdown: 'Mass casualty incident' | Fox News
The letter outlines a variety of consequences that the doctors have observed resulting from the coronavirus shutdowns, including patients missing routine checkups that could detect things like heart problems or cancer, increases in substance and alcohol abuse, and increases in financial instability that could lead to “[p]overty and financial uncertainty,” which “is closely linked to poor health.”
“We are alarmed at what appears to be the lack of consideration for the future health of our patients,” the doctors say in their letter.
Hence, an increase in expected deaths. Lockdowns cause more deaths in the long term than covid-19 itself.
 
1cthlctrth said:
COVID-19 deaths are over-reported: Dr. Birx says government is classifying all deaths of patients with coronavirus as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause .
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But Dr. Birx does not say the covid-19 deaths are over-reported. That is Fox News spin added to Dr. Birx remarks.
 
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