Who's Going to Pay the Bills?: Purpose-Driven Coronavirus Business Shutdowns Cause Economic Catastrophe

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Quantified proof of overstated impact of COVID-19 on death counts:


The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has published a report stating that just 6% of COVID-19 deaths listed the only cause of death as coronavirus and no other comorbidities.
“For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death,” the CDC website reads.

Based on the CDC’s data, 94% of people have died with coronavirus, along with one or more other underlying health issues. The CDC’s Aug. 28 update stated that there were 167,558 COVID-19 total deaths, which means **10,053 died solely of coronavirus alone with no other health conditions.

The CDC’s figures are derived from provisional death counts, which are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Another good thing is that we can evaluate leftists who insist on Orwellian rules regarding China Virus. Do they truly believe the rules are necessary, or are they attempting to cause chaos and totalitarian control over our lives?:


House Speaker Nancy Pelosi got her hair done at a San Francisco salon on Monday — in spite of local coronavirus rules barring indoor personal-care services, Fox News reported.

Security footage obtained by the outlet shows the California Democrat strolling through e Salon SF in the city’s Pacific Heights neighborhood at around 3:10 p.m. Monday.
She can be seen wearing a black smock with her wet locks slicked back — but no mask on her face.

Hair salons and barbershops in San Francisco have been shuttered since March, and officials on Monday gave the OK to reopen, but for outdoor service only.

Peru, which enforced strict lockdowns in March before it recorded a single COVID death, now has the highest COVID-19 death rate. Same goes for our states governed by Democrats: strictest lockdowns and higher COVID-19 death rates.

Unnecessary economic disaster caused by leftists who lack compassion:
(hat-tip @theo520:slight_smile:

 
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1cthlctrth said:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has published a report stating that just 6% of COVID-19 deaths listed the only cause of death as coronavirus and no other comorbidities.
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Not this again! This is the logic behind euthanasia. “The person had a co-morbidity. He was dying of terminal cancer. He did “with” the lethal injection I gave him, but he didn’t die of it exclusively, so no to worry!” That is exactly how silly this story you quoted sounds.
 
1cthlctrth said:
ame goes for our states governed by Democrats: strictest lockdowns and higher COVID-19 death rates .
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You realize this is pure nonsense. Not that the people didn’t die and that the cities weren’t democrat governance. but the premise.

How many people died in Wyoming or Alaska? Not many, why. Cause no one freaking lives there.

Covid is spread by close contact with other people. The largest cities in the country have the greatest spread because there are lots of people in close proximity. Politics has nothing to do with it.

Hey, just a question. Has Trump gotten his hair cut since all this started? Where was it done? I could gripe that he was ignorant for letting an outsider into the White House and risked infecting our President and all the other top staff with the virus.

When folks want to gripe about someone getting a hair cut, they really have thin legs they are standing on.
 
More data to consider the next time a Governor considers a lockdown of an entire state:


Four professors with backgrounds ranging from medicine to economics attempted to quantify the number of lives lost from the devastation of the lockdown itself. Using health and labor data as well as various actuarial tables, they projected 65,000 lives lost per month of lockdown in the U.S. – greater than the loss from the virus.


A groundbreaking new study commissioned by Revolver News concludes that COVID-19 lockdowns will end up costing Americans over 10 times as many years of life as they will save from the China virus itself.


The combination of quarantine life, wavering finances, mounting unemployment rates, illnesses, deaths of loved ones, mental illness and child care has led Americans lawyers to predict a record number of divorce filings.
In fact, 31 per cent of couples admitted the quarantine caused irreparable damage to their relationships.

According to data collected by Legal Templates, a firm the provides legal documents online, interest in legal separations peaked on April 13, which is 15 to 20 days – or three weeks – into when the majority of states implemented official quarantine protocol in March.


Several top Democratic officials including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden, have called for President Trump to issue a nationwide mask mandate. No leg to stand on when Pelosi vilifies others, but then her actions appear to indicate that she probably doesn’t truly believe it’s necessary.


It’s the vulnerable who we should protect, as in Governors should not commit euthanasia by sticking covid-19 patients in nursing homes.

Unfortunately, Covid-19 has been a primary contributing factor in thousands of deaths in which covid was not the only cause. But there are many other thousands of listed “covid deaths” in which covid had the same effect as a blister had on an individual who died of a heart attack (zero contribution towards death, and should not be listed as a “blister death”). Clearly, covid deaths are overstated when dying coincidentally WITH covid is included as a covid death.

The information contained throughout this thread like the overstated number of deaths caused by covid-19 and the astronomical costs of lockdowns likely leads to the conclusion that the healthy should work, attend church, go to school, and participate in activities.
 
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Zzyzx_Road said:
@LeafByNiggle You said months back that the economic damage wasn’t going to be that bad. Sure you want to hold on to that belief?

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Mail Online – 17 Sep 20
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I don’t recall saying that.
 
LeafByNiggle said:
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Zzyzx_Road:
@LeafByNiggle You said months back that the economic damage wasn’t going to be that bad. Sure you want to hold on to that belief?

favicon.ico
Mail Online – 17 Sep 20
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I don’t recall saying that.
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You won’t see it because there will not be 3 more months of this lockdown. There will be a gradual roll-out of a return to normalcy.
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Who's Going to Pay the Bills?: Purpose-Driven Coronavirus Business Shutdowns Cause Economic Catastrophe Social Justice
You won’t see it because there will not be 3 more months of this lockdown. There will be a gradual roll-out of a return to normalcy.
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So far they have been out of work for about 3 weeks. Even if it lasts another month, that is less than two months. It is not the same as permanently losing all those jobs.
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Who's Going to Pay the Bills?: Purpose-Driven Coronavirus Business Shutdowns Cause Economic Catastrophe Social Justice
The 61,000 deaths were for the whole year. The Covid-19 death toll is really from just about 4 weeks. If covid-19 were allowed to spread to the same extent we allow the flu to spread for an entire year, it would dwarf that 61,000 figure. I keep hearing this - along with no details on what those measures might be. One wonders if those who make that claim actually have some measures in mind. So far they have been out of work for about 3 weeks. Even if it lasts another month, that is less …
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I was commenting on the lockdowns, not the economic impact of the virus. I never said the economic impact would not be bad. But I was right about the lockdowns. They are nothing like in the beginning. Most businesses are no longer ordered to remain closed, although there are ongoing restrictions on how they can conduct business.
 
Socrates92 said:
I don’t know about that. New York had some pretty high death rates in those nursing homes.
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They did, the virus was new and we were trying to figure things out. So how have other states faired which saw increases in virus numbers well after we had time to get a plan together. Much worse than NY in some cases. My state of Texas being one of them.

 
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farronwolf said:
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Socrates92:
I don’t know about that. New York had some pretty high death rates in those nursing homes.
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They did, the virus was new and we were trying to figure things out. So how have other states faired which saw increases in virus numbers well after we had time to get a plan together. Much worse than NY in some cases. My state of Texas being one of them.

https://data.cms.gov/stories/s/COVID-19-Nursing-Home-Data/bkwz-xpvg/
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There is only one state that faired worse than NY and that was New Jersey which had similar policies regarding sending sick people into nursing homes.
In its release, the Justice Department noted New York’s top-in-the-nation deaths from the coronavirus — 32,592 overall. New York has the second highest death rate in in the country per population, with 1,680 deaths per million people.
New Jersey’s death rate of 1,733 deaths per million people is the highest per capita in the nation.
In contrast, Texas reported just over 11,000 deaths, though its population is 50 percent larger than New York and has many more recorded cases of COVID-19.
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Source: DOJ probes nursing home deaths in 4 states — including in NY

You might assume they were “trying to figure things out” but will you support an investigation into the decision making to determine if negligence or malfeasance played a role?

The unnecessary continuation of lockdowns that a Pennsylvania judgs has ruled unconstitutional for very good reasons tends to point in the direction of inntentionality regarding using the pandemic for political ends. Don’t let any crisis go to waste.

Clearly people like DeBlasio have no commitment to the well-being of people despite the rhetoric of the “common good.”
 
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This is a good point, and that’s why in a lot of places there seem to be compromises. Restaurants that can’t let customers sit inside their buildings are starting to do delivery, companies that can’t let people work in their offices are making their employees work from home, etc. It’s also why commercials are encouraging people to favor small businesses over large ones; McDonalds will survive but Mom&Pop’s Burger Joint might not.
 
From the article you linked.

“At least 14 states — including Kentucky, Utah and Arizona — have issued similar nursing guidance all based on federal guidelines and yet the four states listed in the DOJ’s request have a Democratic governor. DOJ should send a letter to CMS (Center for Medicare Services) and CDC since the State’s advisories were modeled after their guidance.”

NY had a death rate of 49.4 per 1000 residents in nursing homes. There are 19 states with higher death rates per 1000 residents.

You can’t change the facts. Well unless you use alternative facts, like some suggest we do.
 
farronwolf said:
NY had a death rate of 49.4 per 1000 residents in nursing homes. There are 19 states with higher death rates per 1000 residents.
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New York’s “facts” around long term care facilities are extremely questionable. Check this link to see what I mean.


Click on “Long-Term Care” button. The default view is “Map”, but one can click “Table” to get that view.

Now compare New York to other states. Nationwide the ratio of long term care facility (LTCF) deaths to total deaths is 41% and the ratio of LTCF cases to total cases is 8%. But New York reports only 20% for the ratio of LTCF deaths to total cases and does not report the total LTCF cases at all.

So … let’s look clockwise at every state that borders New York for these percentages:
VT 55% 14%
MA 64% 20%
CT 73% 19%
NJ 44% 19% death rate per million above NY’s
PA 68% 18%

How about the remaining New England states?
NH 82% 28%
ME 61% 14%
RI 78% 14%

Look at other significant states:
WA 54% 9%. The first canary in the coal mine. It is via WA (and Italy) that we knew by March 15 at the very latest that the elderly in LTCF’s were a huge problem.

FL 41% 7%. They reported 2400+ LTCF’s with cases while NY reported only 463. Remember the media breathlessly and continually predicted the FL elderly were going to get slammed NY-style. Only to be proven wrong because DeSantis took a different course from Cuomo. Both had the same knowledge on March 15, but took very different actions to deal with the threat.

CA 37% 7%. Another canary in the coal mine.

If you still believe New York’s numbers, I’ve a bridge to sell you. It’s a nice one too.
 
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farronwolf said:
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NY had a death rate of 49.4 per 1000 residents in nursing homes. There are 19 states with higher death rates per 1000 residents.

You can’t change the facts. Well unless you use alternative facts, like some suggest we do.
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It is possible to confirm the facts based upon how comparable those facts are. For example, in your claim that New York had a death rate of 49.4 per thousand in nursing homes. The problem is that New York is the only state that counted deaths based upon where the death took place rather than origin of the patient.

You may want to look into how numbers are counted in the various states. True comparables are not going to be easily located because of the way data is being manipulated depending upon the agenda of those whose political ends are at stake.

I don’t know if you will trust the AP, but according to an article it posted, NY’s numbers are not comparable to those of other states because of the way Cuomo’s state tracks deaths.
New York’s coronavirus death toll in nursing homes, already among the highest in the nation, could actually be a significant undercount. Unlike every other state with major outbreaks, New York only counts residents who died on nursing home property and not those who were transported to hospitals and died there.
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So, for example, if the Riverside Nursing Home in the Bronx is an indicator…
Riverdale Nursing Home in the Bronx appears, on paper, to have escaped the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, with an official state count of just four deaths in its 146-bed facility.
The truth, according to the home, is far worse: 21 dead, most transported to hospitals before they succumbed.
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… NY’s numbers could be 5 times its data count, whereas other states include all nursing home deaths based upon origin of the patient rather than location of death.

I also downloaded the CMS data set you provided. It appears that the data is woefully inadequate in terms of completeness and quality.

For example, New York’s data is based upon 28 nursing homes of which only 7 of those were checked for quality of data. Texas’ data is based upon 59 nursing homes of which 23 were checked for quality.

Ergo, if New York’s data set from nursing homes excludes those residents that did not die in the nursing home but elsewhere, as the AP article claims, then how can your claim — There are 19 states with higher death rates per 1000 residents [than New York] — be sustained?

Continued…
 
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Also, if the numbers in the CMS charts only account for those nursing homes listed in the data set but a very large number of those homes did not provide data or it was not verified, how were the numbers arrived at and just how complete are they? There are at least 80 nursing homes just in the New York City area, yet only 28 (statewide) appear in the data set. Did all those have no deaths or is the data just incomplete?
farronwolf said:
You can’t change the facts. Well unless you use alternative facts, like some suggest we do.
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Yeah, no. All stated facts have a provenance and some are more accurate than others. This “alternative facts” trope is a deflection. Proving the facts, whatever the source, is important.
 
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Zzyzx_Road said:
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farronwolf:
NY had a death rate of 49.4 per 1000 residents in nursing homes. There are 19 states with higher death rates per 1000 residents.
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New York’s “facts” around long term care facilities are extremely questionable. Check this link to see what I mean.
State COVID-19 Data and Policy Actions | KFF

Click on “Long-Term Care” button. The default view is “Map”, but one can click “Table” to get that view.

Now compare New York to other states. Nationwide the ratio of long term care facility (LTCF) deaths to total deaths is 41% and the ratio of LTCF cases to total cases is 8%. But New York reports only 20% for the ratio of LTCF deaths to total cases and does not report the total LTCF cases at all.

So … let’s look clockwise at every state that borders New York for these percentages:
VT 55% 14%
MA 64% 20%
CT 73% 19%
NJ 44% 19% death rate per million above NY’s
PA 68% 18%

How about the remaining New England states?
NH 82% 28%
ME 61% 14%
RI 78% 14%

Look at other significant states:
WA 54% 9%. The first canary in the coal mine. It is via WA (and Italy) that we knew by March 15 at the very latest that the elderly in LTCF’s were a huge problem.

FL 41% 7%. They reported 2400+ LTCF’s with cases while NY reported only 463. Remember the media breathlessly and continually predicted the FL elderly were going to get slammed NY-style. Only to be proven wrong because DeSantis took a different course from Cuomo. Both had the same knowledge on March 15, but took very different actions to deal with the threat.

CA 37% 7%. Another canary in the coal mine.

If you still believe New York’s numbers, I’ve a bridge to sell you. It’s a nice one too.
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I’m not sure what you find so unbelievable about the New York numbers, KFF seems to believe them. Is it the low percentage of LTCF deaths compared to all deaths? There is nothing unreasonable, or admirable, about New York’s percentage. There are two ways to make this percentage lower. One is to have fewer deaths in LTCFs. The other is to have more deaths outside of LTCF. New York’s low percentage is due to the latter, and it also a consequence of having to deal with the virus before the best treatment protocols were discovered. A lot more non-LTCF patients in New York died because of that. That’s the trouble with focusing on derived statistics and drawing conclusions from them in isolation of the rest of the stats.
 
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LeafByNiggle said:
I’m not sure what you find so unbelievable about the New York numbers, KFF seems to believe them. Is it the low percentage of LTCF deaths compared to all deaths? There is nothing unreasonable, or admirable, about New York’s percentage. There are two ways to make this percentage lower. One is to have fewer deaths in LTCFs. The other is to have more deaths outside of LTCF. New York’s low percentage is due to the latter, and it also a consequence of having to deal with the virus before the best treatment protocols were discovered. A lot more non-LTCF patients in New York died because of that. That’s the trouble with focusing on derived statistics and drawing conclusions from them in isolation of the rest of the stats.
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KFF is just like the NY Times, Worldometer, Johns Hopkins, etc., in that they report whatever numbers are there from publicly available sources. If a jurisdiction chooses to withhold some or all of its data, there is nothing the data providers can do about that and indeed there are four states that don’t report any LTCF data at all. Easily spotted on KFF’s map. If a jurisdiction chooses to fudge its data, again, there’s not a whole lot the data providers can do about that.

I happen to like KFF because they’ve had the best reporting of LTCF numbers of anyone out there. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t bad numbers in there.

The problem I have with your conclusion is this: New Jersey and Massachusetts got hit by the same surge of European travelers that you have frequently complained about hitting New York. But the MA and NJ LTCF numbers are in line with what we’ve seen nationwide. Hence we can trust those numbers and say they make sense. In that light, New York’s 20% number is absurdly low compared to all of its immediate neighbors. Hence it’s very difficult for many people to see New York’s 20% number and not think bull excrement.

I find it very, very curious that New York does not report total cases in LTCF’s. Why is that? Maybe if they don’t have to report total cases, they can make the 20% look good enough?

Further, how about addressing the two posts by @HarryStotle just above your last reply to me?
 
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Zzyzx_Road said:
In that light, New York’s 20% number is absurdly low compared to all of its immediate neighbors.
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It is only low because New York’s other deaths were absurdly high. New York’s neighbors did not have such absurdly high deaths. Didn’t you read that in my post? The percentage is a ratio of LTCF deaths to all deaths. If all deaths go up, the percentage goes down.
 
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LeafByNiggle said:
It is only low because New York’s other deaths were absurdly high. Didn’t you read that in my post? The percentage is a ratio of LTCF deaths to all deaths. If all deaths go up, the percentage goes down.
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Please address the HarryStotle posts.
 
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