G
grannymh
Guest
All your information is appreciated. You did answer some of the questions in the back of my mind which I was not ready to ask. I am assuming that one would have to validate the method usedExactly the same way as one would examine any hypothesis - look to see if it gels with the evidence.
Right now this bottleneck thing is like a brick wall to me. So I am moving away from it and looking for the point of origin of the fully complete human being. This does not mean I have abandoned the brick wall. My curiosity as to how this wall was built is as intense as ever.There is no reason why there should necessarily have been a bottleneck at the origin of Homo sapiens. Since the method can detect an extreme bottleneck whenever it occurred, and no such bottleneck is detected, it doesn’t make sense to ask when the non-existent extreme bottleneck occurred.
Probably by now, assumed reproduction data are automatically figured in the computer-simulated populations.Ayala’s particular method which compares the allelic lineages of loci in the Major Histocompatibility Complex between human and chimp, and which precludes a bottleneck of two, does not depend on reproduction rates.
I have one of Francisco Ayala’s earlier papers, “The Myth of Eve: Molecular Biology and Human Origins” 1995. He was very careful to detail his methods. In the section titled Census Populations, he writes “The parameter N that I have used for estimating the size of human populations is a theoretical construct that corresponds approximately to the number of synchronously reproducing individuals…In humans and in other primates, a number of individuals, possibly one-third do not reproduce at all. Of the females who reproduce, only about one-third are actively reproducing at any given time; the others are juveniles or are beyond reproductive age. With the use of these rough approximations, we can conclude that N is about two-ninths of the census population.”
I agree with you that comparing genetic information side by side in a laboratory can be done without looking at reproduction data. However, it appears that estimating the size of human populations and census populations includes estimating how many pregnant ladies there are.
Suppose two hominids wandered off. Suppose their lineage included a reproduction span longer than normal with juveniles reproducing at a younger age and menopause occurring at a later age. Plus, environmental conditions were favorable so the survival rate of children was higher. This bit of imagination which might influence the length of a generation was not in Ayala’s paper; however, according to him, the number of bottleneck generations could influence the consequences of a population bottleneck.
The closing sentence of the Census Populations is: "If human ancestral populations consisted of several synchronous but relatively isolated populations, fewer individuals than were estimated above would be required to account for the DRB1 polymorphisms, although the order of magnitude would not change (18). The footnote (18) is N. Takahata, Mol. Biol. Evol. 10,2 (1993) Ayala does give a possible lower estimate but it would be unfair to take this out of context.
The very first research paper on your list is "The Myth of Eve… which is the one I have cited above.It’s in those twenty papers that I cited for you.
AlecAll this business about wandering off is irrelevant -
evolutionpages.com
I admit it. I’m right-brained.