Why Isn't There a Palestinian State?

[niceatheist]

And how would you and your America-Hating friends allow Israel to defend their 1967 borders?

What if Israel retreated to the 67 borders, then found themselves surrounded by Arabs massing armies on her borders, meanwhile continuing to scream “Death to Israel!!”.

What if Israel retreated to the 67 borders, then found Tel Aviv and most of the rest of Israel on the receiving end of of Hamas’ rockets.

How would you allow Israel to defend herself??

Israel has nukes, though it won’t admit it. There won’t be any Arab armies amassing around its borders, because if there was, there’d likely be mushroom clouds over Cairo and Riyadh, and maybe even Mecca for good measure.

Israel is probably the best equipped military power in the region, and certainly has capabilities far beyond its neighbors. Egypt is officially an ally, Saudi Arabia is a tacit ally (largely because of their shared contempt for Tehran), so that leaves Iran, which has no real way to project force anywhere near Israel’s border, Syria and Iraq, which are complete wrecks at the moment, and Turkey, which while not a “friend” in the capital-f sense with Israel, represents no threat that I can see. So do you imagine Morocco or Algeria surrounding Israel?

 

[Ridgerunner]

And if thousands of rockets were fired into Israel from the West Bank (Hezbollah alone has thousands of them, and not to bomb Beirut) is Israel to nuke Bethlehem, or perhaps some strip of desert?

 

[niceatheist]

And if thousands of rockets were fired into Israel from the West Bank (Hezbollah alone has thousands of them, and not to bomb Beirut) is Israel to nuke Bethlehem, or perhaps some strip of desert?

No, they’d probably do a combination of air strike and probably ground invasion, but as deadly as such attacks would be, they simply do not represent the existential threat to Israel that the mythical Arab invasion Boatswain invoked. So it’s an apples and oranges situation here.

 

[Boatswain2PA]

existential threat to Israel that the mythical Arab invasion Boatswain invoked.

Yeah…like the mythical attack by Egypt and Syria on Yom Kippur day in 1967.

Mythical like that??

Agreed Israel is in a much more peaceful position with her neighbors than in the past, but some of that position comes from controlling the W.bank and Gaza.

 

[niceatheist]

niceatheist:

existential threat to Israel that the mythical Arab invasion Boatswain invoked.

Yeah…like the mythical attack by Egypt and Syria on Yom Kippur day in 1967.

Mythical like that??

That was fifty years ago. The political map of the Middle East has undergone significant change since then. In fact, it was pretty much redrawn within 12 years of that by the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty.

Agreed Israel is in a much more peaceful position with her neighbors than in the past, but some of that position comes from controlling the W.bank and Gaza.

You still haven’t exactly explained which Arab nations are going to be trying to attack Israel. I can’t see any of the North African west of Egypt wanting anything to do with it, and Egypt has a peace treaty and fairly good reasons of its own to cooperate with Israel. Saudi Arabia and Israel may not officially be pals, but there’s a definite “enemy of my enemy is my friend” vibe over the shared concerns over Iran. There really aren’t any other Arab states in any shape to field an army.

The days when the Arab world represented an existential threat to Israel are long gone.

 

[Boatswain2PA]

Not long gone, and what keeps them at bay? One of those things that keeps them at bay is the strength of Israel, and the barriers of the WB and gaza.

 

[niceatheist]

Not long gone, and what keeps them at bay? One of those things that keeps them at bay is the strength of Israel, and the barriers of the WB and gaza.

It could still lay waste to its Arab neighbors with the Gaza and the West Bank, but any Arab solidarity on Israel died out by 1979. That’s the weakest possible justification for those occupations. Stronger is Ridgerunner’s comments about rocket attacks, but since those don’t represent an existential threat, they’re not quite as useful from a polemic point of view.

 

[Boatswain2PA]

While Egypt is friendly now, it was just a few years ago when the moslim brotherhood wastaking charge. Things can happen quickly there, just another reason to be close allies with Israel.

 

[niceatheist]

While Egypt is friendly now, it was just a few years ago when the moslim brotherhood wastaking charge. Things can happen quickly there, just another reason to be close allies with Israel.

Do you have any evidence that there was going to be a repudiation of the Treaty?

 

[Boatswain2PA]

Seriously?

Of course not. But common sense would tell you the moslim bro’s would be most unfriendly to Israel.

 

[niceatheist]

It didn’t last long enough to find out, which tells you the Egyptian Army wouldn’t let it happen anyways.

 

[Boatswain2PA]

which tells you the Egyptian Army DIDN’T let it happen anyways.

Fixed that for you. What about next time? Maybe you have a crystal ball, but I certainly don’t.

Like you said, Israel is in relative peace with most of its neighbors (except Iran and their hezbolla terrorists who still try to operate in gaza, etc). Much of that peace is “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” due to Iran’s extremism. Might it grow into a true peace? I certainly hope so, and one that involves a 2 state solution, or a confederated government.

But that will take a while, and until then, I don’t begrudge Israel maintaining every ounce of strength they have.

 

[Ridgerunner]

Egypt has a peace treaty and fairly good reasons of its own to cooperate with Israel.

Back when the Muslim Brotherhood ran Egypt after Mubarak and before Morsi, the government said it repudiated the peace treaty with Israel. Fortunately, Morsi ousted them. But it could happen again.

But for now, you’re right. There is a peace treaty. Moreover, as you point out, the Arab sunni states are a lot more afraid of Iran and its proxies than Israel, and rightly so.

 

[Ridgerunner]

It didn’t last long enough to find out, which tells you the Egyptian Army wouldn’t let it happen anyways

That was true in Turkey too, for a long time, but isn’t anymore.

 

[niceatheist]

niceatheist:

Egypt has a peace treaty and fairly good reasons of its own to cooperate with Israel.

Back when the Muslim Brotherhood ran Egypt after Mubarak and before Morsi, the government said it repudiated the peace treaty with Israel. Fortunately, Morsi ousted them. But it could happen again.

But for now, you’re right. There is a peace treaty. Moreover, as you point out, the Arab sunni states are a lot more afraid of Iran and its proxies than Israel, and rightly so.

I think the Muslim Brotherhood’s downfall suggests that their time in government was never one where they ever really had the level of control necessary to abrogate the Treaty. For better and for worse, the Army still rules Egypt, and has always been much more comfortable with one of its own in charge, so while I’m sure the Muslim Brotherhood had all sort of grandiose plans, I’m fairly certain that few had any real chance of coming to fruition. The Egyptian generals want that treaty with Israel, and no civilian government is going to be permitted to tamper with that.

I guess that’s one advantage of having the generals in charge, particularly when they have been the recipients of such largess from the United States. They know which where their allegiances lay.