"Why It Won’t Stop With Statues." Article on why it can be expected that the mayhem will get worse

[ProdglArchitect]

No, I don’t think race has much to do with it at all. We see similar behaviors along cultural lines regardless of race

I believe it is based on a culture of fatherlessness and dependency. It doesn’t matter what race you are, that culture is bad for you and almost invariably leads to poverty and crime.

What I’m saying is, the right-wing talking point about that being the reason Black people are targeted by cops and the system overall has a ton of studies that do not agree.

No, they have studies that potentially show there’s a bias. They say nothing about the root cause of that bias, or whether or not it’s justified, which is the point of what I wrote.

If you have a higher rate of crime among a group, it’s reasonable to expect a higher rate of false accusations as well. That’s not fair, and it’s not good, but it’s not racist. When a group of people is actually more likely to commit crimes (as years of statistics clearly show), it’s not racist to expect them to commit more crimes, and approach your investigation accordingly. It’s biased, yes, but it’s a bias based on actual data.

I recognize a real issue with drug conviction numbers, which is why I didn’t cite those statistics, I based my post purely on violent crimes.

As for striking jurors, I have nothing to say on that. It’s not something I’ve ever studied or considered.

 

[Rubee]

(And you still only want to talk about the justice system)

I made the point from the beginning to talk about the Justice system because I recently read a ton about it but do you really think making those weak Shapiro points about “redlining is illegal now” and “just make better choices” is going to be a good argument against the systemic racism in those areas as well?

 

[vz71]

I’m saying that doesn’t discredit their study based on how light-skinned participants are treated compared to those darker-skinned.

If we are going to make a statement on society as a whole, based on a study of that society, then the study must include all of the society…not just certain parts.

 

[Rubee]

If we are going to make a statement on society as a whole, based on a study of that society, then the study must include all of the society…not just certain parts.

The study made a finding about a specific issue: how jurors treat evidence depending on the darkness of complexion of the accused. It’s also just one study among a ton that points unambiguously at a system that unfairly targets black people. So if among the TENS upon tens of them, your big issue is that in one study, the dark-skinned people were not Black, it still doesn’t do a way with what all these studies show together.

 

[Naga]

I meant something more like this:

Different cultures behave differently in various situations.

For example, in traditional American culture (and European culture, for that matter), people are generally inclined to be good Samaritans if they see someone in need of help. In modern Chinese culture, this is less prevalent, as can be observed in a variety of news stories and reports:

https://www.cnn.com/2011/10/17/world/asia/china-toddler-hit-and-run/index.html

Outcry after Chinese woman hit by car, ignored, run over again | South China Morning Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/10/24/chinas-bystander-problem-another-death-after-crowd-ignores-woman-in-peril/

At this time in the world, cultures are strongly (but not absolutely) divided among ethnic lines. This does not mean that it is the result of genetics. It could instead be the result of past or present cultural pressures keeping the cultures divided along these lines. For example, until the latter part of the 20th century, there was a strong taboo in the United States toward blacks and whites interacting with one another in many situations (this taboo continues today among both black supremacists and white supremacists, but it is much less prevalent than it was previously). Although most people no longer hold this perspective, the effects of this are still felt today, in that, although it is not an absolute rule, there are distinct cultural groups in the United States that are broadly black or white, with less overlap than would be expected if people randomly belonged cultures.

Therefore, a possible conclusion is this: It could be that people from certain cultures are more prone to engaging in crime in a wider variety of situations than people from other cultures. Further, as a result of the way cultures are often divided along ethnic lines at this time, it could be that black people are more likely than other ethnic groups to belong to these cultures. If this is the case, then the statistics posted earlier in this thread are not the result of genetics, but rather, due to cultural differences.

 

[Rubee]

No, they have studies that potentially show there’s a bias.

A bias against a demographic built into the system is EXACTLY what “systemic racism” means.

They say nothing about the root cause of that bias, or whether or not it’s justified, which is the point of what I wrote. If you have a higher rate of crime among a group, it’s reasonable to expect a higher rate of false accusations as well. That’s not fair, and it’s not good, but it’s not racist.

News flash! If you target a community unfairly, it’s “reasonable” (to borrow your words) to conclude that you’ll find/record more “crime” among them.

And no . . . the overwhelming evidence on profiling shows cops target black people all across the country DESPITE White people committing the same crimes at the same rate or higher. White people are more likely to be found with contraband but Black people are stopped and searched more.

White people also get lesser punishments for the same offenses, controlling for the type of crime, seriousness, and whether or not it’s a first time offender.

White people are offered plea-bargains more often and better ones, controlling for the same offense, age of the offender, etc.

White people are offered more affordable bails etc.

And Black people are more likely to plead guilty to offenses they did not commit because their poverty means they can’t afford to fight the system and they think it’ll be easier to just deal with it that way.

So you have a system that:

1. Put Black people in an impoverished state in the first place.
2. Now targets them in HIGHLY disproportionate terms in profiling and arrests, the “drug war,” jury selection, sentencing, and even crime-solving.

But no . . . “systemic racism is a myth.”

 

[ProdglArchitect]

News flash! If you target a community unfairly, it’s “reasonable” (to borrow your words) to conclude that you’ll find/record more “crime” among them.

There are real reasons that those biases exist. It makes sense in an area where crime is most commonly perpetrated by a subset of the population to focus on that subset.

And no . . . the overwhelming evidence on profiling shows cops target black people all across the country DESPITE White people committing the same crimes at the same rate or higher.

Except they don’t. That’s the exact point of the data I listed. They don’t commit the crimes at the same rate. Adjusted for population they commit crimes at three times the rate as white people, and twice the rate of Hispanics. If you can’t grasp that then you will never be able to see the numbers as driven by anything but racism.

White people also get lesser punishments for the same offenses, controlling for the type of crime, seriousness, and whether or not it’s a first time offender.

I recognize that and agree that it’s bad. It doesn’t change that they chose to commit a crime, which is the underlying problem. False confessions are also a problem, definitely, but even factoring those in there’s still a disproportionate number of crimes committed by African Americans.

So you have a system that:

1. Put Black people in an impoverished state in the first place.

We are several generations removed from slavery, and roughly 4 generations after civil rights were inscribed into law. It only takes one generation for a person to move from impoverished to not, as evidenced by the innumerable number of people that have done so, both black and white. You cannot blame the system for individual failure to take advantage of opportunities or to use your money wisely.

1. Now targets them in HIGHLY disproportionate terms in profiling and arrests, jury selection, sentencing, and even crime-solving.

They commit a disproportionately-large number of crimes. It’s not targeting if it’s accurate to the numbers. While sentencing is a problem, you cannot claim that it’s wrong to arrest more black people (per capita) if more black people (per capita) commit crimes.

 

[Rubee]

Except they don’t. That’s the exact point of the data I listed. They don’t commit the crimes at the same rate. Adjusted for population they commit crimes at three times the rate as white people, and twice the rate of Hispanics. If you can’t grasp that then you will never be able to see the numbers as driven by anything but racism.

• A New York Times examination after the death of George Floyd found that while black people make up 19 percent of the Minneapolis population and 9 percent of its police, they were on the receiving end of 58 percent of the city’s police use-of-force incidents.
• A massive study published in May 2020 of 95 million traffic stops by 56 police agencies between 2011 and 2018 found that while black people were much more likely to be pulled over than whites, the disparity lessens at night, when police are less able to distinguish the race of the driver. The study also found that blacks were more likely to be searched after a stop, though whites were more likely to be found with illicit drugs. The darker the sky, the less pronounced the disparity between white and black motorists. The study also found that in states that had legalized marijuana, the racial disparity narrowed but was still significant.
• An August 2019 study published by the National Academy of Sciences based on police-shooting databases found that between 2013 and 2018, black men were about 2.5 times more likely than white men to be killed by police, and that black men have a 1-in-1,000 chance of dying at the hands of police. Black women were 1.4 more times likely to be killed than white women. Latino men were 1.3 to 1.4 times more likely to be killed than white men. Latino women were between 12 percent and 23 percent less likely to be killed than white women.
• A 2019 study of 11,000 police stops over about four weeks in the District found that while black people make up 46 percent of the city’s population, they accounted for 70 percent of police stops, and 86 percent of stops that didn’t involve traffic enforcement.
• An October 2019 report in the Los Angeles Times found that during traffic stops, “24% of black drivers and passengers were searched, compared with 16% of Latinos and 5% of whites.” The same study also found that police were slightly more likely to find drugs, weapons or other contraband among whites.

 

[Rubee]

Except they don’t. That’s the exact point of the data I listed. They don’t commit the crimes at the same rate. Adjusted for population they commit crimes at three times the rate as white people, and twice the rate of Hispanics. If you can’t grasp that then you will never be able to see the numbers as driven by anything but racism.

As of May 2018, data from New York City showed that black people are arrested for marijuana at eight times the rate of white people. In Manhattan, it’s 15 times as much. Black neighborhoods produce far more arrests than white neighborhoods, despite data showing a similar rate at which residents complain about marijuana use.

In contrast to the assertion that blacks are more likely to be arrested because they’re more likely to use drugs in public, a 2002 study of narcotics search warrants in the San Diego area — that is, warrants to search for drugs in private homes — found that black and Hispanic residents were “significantly over-represented as targets of narcotics search warrants,” even after adjusting for usage rates. The study also found that “searches of White suspects were more successful in recovering the targeted drug than were searches of either Black or Hispanic suspects.”

 

[VonDerTann]

a good argument against the systemic racism in those areas as well?

–You haven’t proven there’s systemic racism in any areas.

What difference would it make, when anything I say will get me called a “king,” issuing “fatwas”? (which you’ve now doubled down on calling me)

My father, God rest his soul, was one of the smartest, but also one of the kindest, men, I ever knew. He taught me at a young age, what I hope you will learn some day:

You can have the best evidence in the world, and you will convince no one if you can’t present it in a polite way.

Your total inability to have a polite, charitable conversation makes everything you write suspect. Enjoy debating against yourself.

PS: Systemic anti-black racism in the US is a myth. I really botched it up when i wrote it as white!

 

[Rubee]

PS: Systemic anti-white racism in the US is a myth.

I agree! Thank you. Please remember that next time you want to site not being able to comfortably call Black people the N-word as an example that you’re a victim.

 

[ProdglArchitect]

A New York Times examination after the death of George Floyd found that while black people make up 19 percent of the Minneapolis population and 9 percent of its police, they were on the receiving end of 58 percent of the city’s police use-of-force incidents.

And what percentage of the crimes do they commit? You’re completely ignoring a crucial portion of the reason.

The same could be argued for the rest of these, and they could all be explained with that same data showing that they are more likely to commit a given crime, so there’s a higher likelihood they would be involved with the police.

I can’t really comment further without reading the studies themselves.

I believe there are issues, but I do not believe they are pervasive or as unjustified as they’re being presented. Certainly areas are definitely problems (like with drug convictions and sentencing), but the underlying issue is still that if a group is more likely to commit crimes, they are more likely to be suspected of committing a crime, and the police are not racist for responding accordingly.

 

[ProdglArchitect]

As of May 2018, data from New York City showed that black people are arrested for marijuana at eight times the rate of white people. In Manhattan, it’s 15 times as much. Black neighborhoods produce far more arrests than white neighborhoods, despite data showing a similar rate at which residents complain about marijuana use.

In contrast to the assertion that blacks are more likely to be arrested because they’re more likely to use drugs in public, a 2002 study of narcotics search warrants in the San Diego area — that is, warrants to search for drugs in private homes — found that black and Hispanic residents were “significantly over-represented as targets of narcotics search warrants,” even after adjusting for usage rates. The study also found that “searches of White suspects were more successful in recovering the targeted drug than were searches of either Black or Hispanic suspects.”

Once again, there’s a reason i didn’t cite drugs statistics, as those show a clear problem, which I’ve already acknowledged. Take your win, seriously, I agree with you on this point. Black people are disproportionately targeted for drug possession, and disproportionately penalized for such crimes.

 

[Rubee]

And what percentage of the crimes do they commit? You’re completely ignoring a crucial portion of the reason.

And you’re simply not reading. The studies control for the rate of crimes. In fact White people are more likely to be caught with contraband than Black people yet Blacks are more targetted for the frisks. So much for crimes being the driver of profiling.

 

[vz71]

So if among the TENS upon tens of them,

Hey, I’m just looking at the study you provided.
It is flawed.
Perhaps you should have read it first.

 

[Rubee]

Once again, there’s a reason i didn’t cite drugs statistics, as those show a clear problem, which I’ve already acknowledged. Take your win, seriously, I agree with you on this point. Black people are disproportionately targeted for drug possession, and disproportionately penalized for such crimes.

Ok, fair enough. I must’ve missed the point. So that is already an admission of systemic racism. I don’t get the denials then.

It’s also not just the drug war. Even random traffick stops and petty crimes as well.

 

[Rubee]

It is flawed.
Perhaps you should have read it first.

Maybe you should understand it first before making claims of discrediting studies and then failing to do that. Your simple claim that it’s flawed because they used non-Black dark-skinned people has no bearing on its quality. It’s just a claim you’re throwing out there without showing how that discredits the finding.

 

[ProdglArchitect]

And you’re simply not reading. The studies control for the rate of crimes

Do they cite how often either group responds with force? If one group is more likely to respond violently (not sure if they are, don’t have those statistics on hand), then the number of violent police incidents would also be higher among that group.

I can’t read that article. I refuse to give the NYT my information, so I can’t verify if they include those statistics or not. If they don’t, then they’re ignoring a crucial detail.

So that is already an admission of systemic racism. I don’t get the denials then.

That is an admission that there is an issue in one particular area. It doesn’t do away with any of the numbers I was discussing, which deal exclusively with the rates of violent crime. Just because one aspect of the system is flawed doesn’t mean that they all are, or that the deck is totally stacked against one group.

Also remember, just because they’re searched / convicted more often doesn’t do away with the fact that they were still in possession of illegal narcotics. They still committed a crime, and they should still be punished accordingly, as should the white people who do the same thing. If they hadn’t been in possession of drugs, they wouldn’t have been arrested (again, also recognizing that there are false convictions in this area. Still, they are far from the majority, so the point stands).

I’m out for the day. This has been an interesting discussion. You’ve raised some points I was unaware of, like with jury selection, which calls for further investigation. I do hope you understand that I don’t mean any ill will towards African Americans; and where there are real problems they need to be addressed. I just don’t believe the problems are as pervasive some would have you believe.

 

[Rubee]

I really botched it up when i wrote it as white!

It’s called a Freudian slip! And how fitting.

I can’t read that article. I refuse to give the NYT my information, so I can’t verify if they include those statistics or not. If they don’t, then they’re ignoring a crucial detail.

• A 2015 statistical analysis of police shootings from 2011 to 2014 found that the racial disparity in police shootings of black people could not be explained by higher crime rates in majority-black communities.
• A 2018 Post investigation found that murders of white people are more likely to be solved than murders of black people. There’s also a strong correlation between areas that are black-majority and low-income and the areas with the lowest clearance rate for homicides.
• Similarly, a study published in June 2018 reviewed every reported homicide between 1976 and 2009 and found that “homicides with white victims are significantly more likely to be ‘cleared’ by the arrest of a suspect than are homicides with minority victims.”
• Another ACLU study, this time on the use of stop-and-frisk in Milwaukee between 2010 and 2017, found that in nearly half of the more than 700,000 such stops, the police failed to demonstrate reasonable suspicion as required by the Constitution. The study found that between pedestrian stops and traffic stops, black people were six times more likely to be stopped and searched than white people, and that less than 1 percent of those searches turned up any contraband. Here again, while black and Latino drivers were more likely to be searched, they were 20 percent less likely to be in possession of any contraband.

 

[Rubee]

I can’t read that article. I refuse to give the NYT my information, so I can’t verify if they include those statistics or not. If they don’t, then they’re ignoring a crucial detail.

A 2019 study of police stops in Cincinnati found that black motorists were 30 percent more likely to be pulled over than white motorists. Black motorists also comprised 76 percent of arrests following a traffic stop despite making up 43 percent of the city’s population. It’s worth noting, again, that multiple studies have shown that searches of white motorists are slightly more likely to turn up contraband than searches of black motorists.

A 2020 report on 1.8 million police stops by the eight largest law enforcement agencies in California found that blacks were stopped at a rate 2.5 times higher than the per capita rate of whites. The report also found that black people were far more likely to be stopped for “reasonable suspicion” (as opposed to actually breaking a law) and were three times more likely than any other group to be searched, even though searches of white people were more likely to turn up contraband.

A study of 542,000 traffic stops in Connecticut in 2017 found that the racial disparity in stops had narrowed from previous years. But it also found that blacks were more likely to be searched after stops for registration, license, seatbelt and cellphone violations. The study found that about 19 percent of searches of black motorists turned up contraband, vs. 29 percent of the searches of white motorists.

A 2017 study of interactions between officers and citizens taken from footage captured by police-officer body cameras found that “officers speak with consistently less respect toward black versus white community members, even after controlling for the race of the officer, the severity of the infraction, the location of the stop, and the outcome of the stop.”