2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

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Marco Rubio, the Junion Senator from Florida? I’m not that deep into politics. Is he being bandied about as a running mate by people already? Didn’t he just become a Senator? Are you from Florida? I had to go to Wikepedia just to find out who he is, so that shows you my political knowledge. 😉

Well, good luck at any rate.
If you heard him speak, then I think you’d be quite impressed with him. His election in 2010 was a national news story. I am not from Florida.
 
Why Powlenty? He didn’t make a very good impression in the debate last night.
I wasn’t basing that on the debate necessarily, but on the thinness of the current GOP crowd. I think Pawlenty and Romney are currently the only candidates who can defeat Obama. Pawlenty has a good record as governor. I admit that he hasn’t been very good in the debates and has been overtaken by Bachmann.

Ishii
 
The best and worst cases for Ames

The one thing that most Iowa Republican insiders agree on is that Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann are in a dogfight, and one will pick the other off. Many believe Ron Paul could win outright.

If Paul does win, it’s probably the best-case scenario for Rick Perry as he prepares to enter the race, with a flourish that many Iowa GOPers have criticized as trying to diminish the outcome of Ames. But one could make the opposite argument - that by swooping into the race on the same day but not taking part, Perry has actually elevated the results of the contest in terms of importance.

And if Bachmann wins outright, it is going to be a lot harder for him to siphon away votes from the base they share.
 
I wasn’t basing that on the debate necessarily, but on the thinness of the current GOP crowd. I think Pawlenty and Romney are currently the only candidates who can defeat Obama. Pawlenty has a good record as governor. I admit that he hasn’t been very good in the debates and has been overtaken by Bachmann.

Ishii
I am going to steal gilliam’s signature line.

“Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone & you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost.” –John Quincy Adams
 
So, Michelle Bachman wins the Ames Straw Poll and Tpaw drops out. I didn’t think that TPaw had much of a chance at winning the nomination, but I’m surprised that he dropped out so soon. He’s a realtively young man and may still have another shot at the Presidency down the road. I would think to preserve whatever future he might have as a Presidential candidate he would have needed to stick it out at least to SC. The story seems to be, however, that he simply didn’t have the cash to keep going. It’s not really stopping Gingrich, so I think he should have soldiered on.

Perry, who will be the nominee, seems to be the real winner. His announcement went well and was well staged in front of a very friendly crowd. His message was pure-D red meat for the Tea Party. Like many of the talking heads were saying this morning, he has a great opening line. Texas has created either 37% or 40% of the new jobs in all of America. This should seriously worry the Romney supporters. Romneys jobs record as Governor of MA was, well, less than stellar. His state ranked something like 47th.

Bachman, I think has hit the high water mark for her campaign. She seemed to be on her heels on the morning shows. She was taken to task on MTP in regards to her past statements on Gays and Gay Marriage. She absoluely dodged the question. I just don’t understand. These statements have been part and parcel of her entire political career. Now, she refuses to stand on her convictions? What good are principles if you will only stand on them when its convenient? The real problem of being the supposed frontrunner is the increased scrutiny. She just can’t walk away form her own words.
 
The poll victory of Bachmann gets her great publicity and good money, but my inclination at the moment is to think that she couldn’t beat Obama. She does her best to cover over extreme statements of the past, but they will be thrown at her over and over in a campaign. She’s a gifted speaker, and I like the way that she and her husband took in so many foster children, but some of her views would make me nervous if she were president.
Code:
 On foreign policy, for example, my sympathies tend toward Ron Paul - stop putting our nose into all the conflicts in the world. It about bankrupts us, and even more important keeps sending our brave young men and women home in body bags or without legs. We simply can't police the whole world, and many of the crises are complicated. Take Syria, for example. I've read that the Christians there are overwhelmingly for the Assad government over the rebels. Assad is not good, but apparently they fear that his overthrow could bring much worse.

Romney does not appeal to me, but he really has the best credentials as well as the presence of a president. Can he beat Obama? There many be several million, especially among evangelicals, who may feel that they cannot vote for a Mormon and will sit the election out or choose to vote for a third party??? Personally, I rather like Huntsman, but as a Mormon he would face the same problem.

 Perry? Too early to say. I wasn't all that impressed by his speech on Saturday. He sounds more like a neocon than I like. Neocons, of course, are those people who seem eager to get into every war that comes along. That's also my strong objection (among others) to Santorum. The more they sound like John Bolton the more I distrust them. They'd have us sending troops into Iran, Syria, Libya and elsewhere as soon as they can. Crazies, that's what they are. Of course, war does fill the coffers of some industries - and various military chiefs seem to profit from them, also. Didn't that great man, Ike, say something about the military-industrial complex? It certainly has plenty of power in Congress and elsewhere - both parties. 

 Keep smiling. God is not dead.
 
Sarah Palin is no neoconservative. She was never a Liberal who turned into a foreign policy hawk to promote democracy in the world. Palin is a true country conservative. She is also not a Libertarian, like Ron Paul. But Libertarians are a small subset of conservatives. They are not the main stream. Sarah Palin is a main stream country conservative.
I suspect he was referring particularly to her foreign policy positions, which is what the term ‘neoconservative’ most often refers to. That too, is also one reason for my (many) reservasions about her politics.
 
If I had money, I’d bet $1000 or more on Sarah Palin winning the nomination. At 100-1 odds, I’d make a killing. Sarah in action is a powerful force, and don’t think for a moment that Obama wants to face a fearless, competent, America-embracing candidate like Sarah Palin. 👍 Rob
Yes, if Palin won you would make a killing, but that is a very big if. I don’t think the Republicans can win without capturing the middle voters who sided with the Democrats in the last election, unless Obama is challenged by a candidate from his left. I don’t see that happening. Democrats learned their lesson when Kennedy split the vote for Carter and ruined both Carter’s reelection and his own chances of ever being president.
For the Republicans to win they will have to offer a ticket which is able to appease the right wing of their party, capture the disenchanted voters who will be upset with Paul’s failure to capture the nomination, and secure those voters who would generally vote Republican if they weren’t so afraid that the party is being hijacked by right wing ideologs. I can’t see Palin on a ticket with Perry because she will frighten the middle voters Perry needs to win the election. If Romney is the nominee, perhaps . . . but I seriously doubt it. I see the ticket looking something like Perry / Pawlenty - Romney or Romney / Bachmann. But really, everything is mere speculation at this point. It is still much too early.
 
Well, the odds are better for Palin (nomination, not election), so I’m not sure I would do 100-1. With Paul, I would go 1,000-1, but I don’t think any of his supporters would even bite. Even they know it’s not going to happen. As you’ve pointed out, he goes “off the reservation.”

I agree with Bob, though, that he makes the debates interesting. He’s like a Ross Perot, only with less support and not third party. 🙂
I'm talking POTUS #45, not merely the nominee.I believe that if the GOP nominee is a fighter, she will prevail. Palin is a fearless, ferocious competitor. It will be a joy to refer to he as "President-elect" next November. :D
 
I think Palin will now bide her time and watch how Perry does. If Perry rapidly becomes the front runner, Palin may stay out of the race.

Palin and Perry have pretty much the same base.
 
Exactly how is a neoconservative different from a plain old conservative? :confused: Rob
Scott Lafrance may intercede if I am incorrect here, but he is most likely referring to her foreign policy positions (neoconservatism is mostly a foreign policy ideology). Neoconservatives generally hold interventionist foreign policy positions, a la George Bush (and disappointingly, Barack Obama) and usually support, for example, a more aggressive involvement in the middle east, to give an idea.
 
Scott Lafrance may intercede if I am incorrect here, but he is most likely referring to her foreign policy positions (neoconservatism is mostly a foreign policy ideology). Neoconservatives generally hold interventionist foreign policy positions, a la George Bush (and disappointingly, Barack Obama) and usually support, for example, a more aggressive involvement in the middle east, to give an idea.
If by “intervetionist foreign policy” you mean “willing to use our military against anyone who looks at us funny”, yes, that’s what I mean. 😃
 
Scott Lafrance may intercede if I am incorrect here, but he is most likely referring to her foreign policy positions (neoconservatism is mostly a foreign policy ideology). Neoconservatives generally hold interventionist foreign policy positions, a la George Bush (and disappointingly, Barack Obama) and usually support, for example, a more aggressive involvement in the middle east, to give an idea.
Neo-cons were mostly disaffected Jews who had been liberal/left types but were upset at the leftward lurch of the Democrat party in the 60’s. A prominent neo-con was Irving Kristol, father of William Kristol who heads the Weekly Standard magazine. The first neo-cons were motivated primarily by anti-communism. MOdern neo-cons are motivated by a desire to help protect Israel, and spread democracy around the world. Many on the left (and some on the loony right) get away with using “neo-con” in place of Jew to hide their anti-Semitism.

Ishii
 
So TR, LBJ, JFK, FDR, Wilson and Goldwater were neoconservatives? Come on. Not everyone you disagree with is a neoconservative. Call them a Hawk if you want but the term neoconservative is being misused.
TR, LBJ, JFK, and FDR weren’t any kind of conservative.
 
This Gardasil issue is a real record problem for Governor Perry and it is smart of him to call it a mistake early on:
His third question from the crowd was about an issue that his critics have touched on — his 2007 mandate for girls to get vaccinated against the cervical cancer-causing HPV virus.

“I signed an executive order that allowed for an opt-out, but the fact of the matter is I didn’t do my research well enough to understand that we needed to have a substantial conversation with our citizenry,” he said. “I hate cancer. Let me tell you, as a son who has a mother and father who are both cancer survivors.”

Perry said he’d invested government resources in cancer cures, adding, “I hate cancer. And this HPV, we were seeing young ladies die at the early age. What we should have done was a program that frankly should have allowed them to opt in, or some type of program like that, but here’s what I learned — when you get too far out in front of the parade they will let you know. And that’s exactly what our legislature did…

nationalreview.com/corner/274665/perry-and-girls-kathryn-jean-lopez
 
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