:australia: LATEST: The US president-elect is interested in Australia's COVID-19 response | NSW is the 'gold standard' for COVID-19 management accordi

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Dr. Fauci at the end of February was telling people to go about their normal
everyday activities. At that time he said wen it got to community spread, then other steps would need to be taken.

@dvdjs
 
It is unrealistic to think a country of 320+ million to only have 2000 or 200
deaths from a pandemic of an infectious virus like covid-19.
 
And realistic planning must include waves 2+
An economy can’t sustain repeated multi-month lock downs whenever the virus rears it’s ugly head. Targeting herd immunity is a plausible goal, but it comes with casualties.
 
7_Sorrows said:
It is unrealistic to think a country of 320+ million to only have 2000 or 200
deaths from a pandemic of an infectious virus like covid-19.
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What informs your sense or realism?

Here are some data:
Singapore 5.6 million densely populated. First case February 18. 10 deaths. Scales to ~600 US.
Hong Kong. 7.5 million densely populated. Past peak with only 4 deaths. Scales to ~175 US.
Taiwan 23.8 million densely populated. Past peak with only 6 deaths. Scales to ~83 US.
 
dvdjs said:
That is unfortunately where we are, but, for example:
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Sweden is also doing quite well without a shutdown, but also without severe social distancing and tracking. Part of it may be healthier base populations with fewer underlying conditions that fill the hospitals.
 
dvdjs said:
Sweden is also doing quite well without a shutdown, but also without severe social distancing and tracking. Part of it may be healthier base populations with fewer underlying conditions that fill the hospitals.
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Sweden is not projected to peak until May 8, and wind up with ~1833/M dead . That would scale to about 600,000 dead in the US.
 
David55 said:
Australia has a tight control over its people. And in general Australians tend to obey.
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Bithynian said:
As an Australian, that’s a bizarre appraisal
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Yes the Australian Federal Government believe they have tight control over the population but it is more likely they mean great surveillance capabilities. As for obedience well yes they are NOT sheep and will stand up against their government if needed

The most recent example is with Schools, the Federal Government has requested students go back to school, however the State Governments and the State Education branches have resisted this. Most schools still remain open however an overwhelming majority of teaches are not attending.

It seems that the State is in direct contradiction with the FED
 
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I’m a bit concerned by the Australian PM’s insistence on reopening schools to a normal level.
But he wouldn’t be alone in this.
Denmark today restarted schools for younger children.


Germany plans on reopening them May 4.


But I think Morrison’s plans are more ambitious. And that makes me nervous.
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Unfortunately Denmark isn’t identified in the above graphs. From Wikipedia:
:denmark: Denmark:
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:australia: Australia:
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🇩🇪 Germany:
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(COVID-19 pandemic in Denmark - Wikipedia)
(COVID-19 pandemic in Germany - Wikipedia)
(COVID-19 pandemic in Australia - Wikipedia)
CountryPopulationPop. DensityCasesDeathsDeaths/million
:denmark: Denmark5,822,763351.5/sq. mi.6,49629951.35
:australia: Australia25,679,7008.5/sq. mi.6,447632.45
🇩🇪 Germany83,149,300600.9/sq. mi.133,2093,55142.71
 
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In one Australian state:
“Without the physical distancing measures that have been put in place … we would have got to 58,000 infections per day at the peak,” Professor Sutton said.
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The modelling was done by epidemiologists from the Department of Health and Human Services and experts from the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity and Monash University.
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It indicates what would have happened under constant conditions if the only measures to contain the virus were isolating known infections, a travel ban and quarantining returned travellers.
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Too early?


:australia: ➡️ :new_zealand:
And close to Australia:

Alert level 3 still has many restrictions and does not allow more social activity, though allows more commerce to re-open.
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Any businesses needing to prepare to move into level 3 could be accessed, Ardern said, as could schools, to prepare for the return of pupils. April 28 will be a teachers’ only day and April 29 will be the first day of term.

On businesses accessing their premises, it wasn’t an invitation to open or trade, she said - just to prepare.
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Common sense and realistic view of this issue. Those that keep beating the drum of any single death is one too many,(while any loss is painful) ,I believe this is being used as a means to further the finger pointing at our President.:roll_eyes:
 
Jeanne_S said:
Those that keep beating the drum of any single death is one too many,(while any loss is painful)
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I have yet to hear such a thing. What we are talking about is some 60,000 deaths in the US - even after strong mitigation measures were implemented. We have ample evidence that this can get out of hand, overwhelming health care and mortuaries. It is important to be measured and deeply thoughtful in our actions to return to normalcy. We risk a repeat of what we have already seen if we don’t.
 
ATraveller said:
Alert level 3 still has many restrictions and does not allow more social activity, though allows more commerce to re-open.
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I joked with a friend from New Zealand yesterday: Can’t we just sneak off to there.
She said: No. Not being a citizen, I am not allowed in. And if she goes, there is a mandatory 14day isolation. She said that if her mum needed help, that she would not be able to personally see her for two weeks.
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Of course, there will be more deaths. The highest death toll is limited to only 6-7 states
with New York being number 1.
 
dvdjs said:
I joked with a friend from New Zealand yesterday: Can’t we just sneak off to there.
She said: No. Not being a citizen, I am not allowed in. And if she goes, there is a mandatory 14day isolation. She said that if her mum needed help, that she would not be able to personally see her for two weeks.
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Their eradication strategy only works if they swear off tourism for the next 12+ months
 
In my state there are relatively few cases and relatively fewer deaths. And we are itching to open for summer tourism. We’ll see how that turns out.
 
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