I agree on New York State and New England states going blue. I think the Rust Belt could go for Trump (or Kasich but not Cruz). I also think Trump could make a strong challenge in Florida and Ohio. (likely winning FA, losing OH; with Kasich’s support or as VP, Trump could take it) He might lose Hispanic states like Arizona, New Mexico. Even Georgia I hear is at risk (minority vote? not sure why. I cannot see Georgia going blue!). But the counter argument runs that Trump inspires his base. Trump has brought literally thousands and thousands of voters to the GOP; on paper we have surpassed the Democrats and our own numbers in 2012 by quite a bit - it is amazing.
So, yes, the sad (good?) thing is, for the first time in years, the GOP does ironically have the edge on enthusiasm and numbers to win. We are just too busy hating on each other to notice. Always the optimist, I think this will change - in time to win. The Democrats will need to run negative to mobilize. They have to get much uglier and politically correct than Trump. Vote for us out of fear (what else is on offer? how many people in this country actually seriously think Hillary Clinton is any better than Donald Trump?). I don’t know how well that will play down the middle, after 8 years of enforced negative social political correctness at the hands of a pretty bad president, bad on a number of levels, domestic and international. Again, they need big numbers out there for Hillary. I think the real uphill battle will be for the Dems. Time will tell.