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Darryl1958
Guest
.Please spare us this sort of baiting
Not baiting.
Rather I was being baited, and chose to take the high road of keeping the thread on topic.
In other words, the UK and the US have 0 percent probability of annexing these territories, and the probability of Russia doing so is as real as the reality of what is happening right now.However, I will bite.
If you are familiar with the Beloveža Accords of 1991, you will know that Russia does possess an internationally acknowledged sphere of influence, namely the Commonwealth of Independent States. The CIS is the legal successor to the USSR and is still a functioning organisation to the present day. Ukraine is currently (even in 2015) a participating member, and Georgia withdrew only after the South Ossetian conflict in August of 2008. The remaining states of the former USSR (exempting the Baltic states) are all part of the CIS. Although I am no expert, I do believe that the provisions of the Accords do allow for Russia to maintain a garrison in the member states, even in peacetime, which should act as a warning to NATO. Even if this were not the case, the countries of the CIS are part of an acknowledged Russian sphere, regardless of opinion. Thus, any rapprochements by the west, such as those coming from NATO or the EU, are in fact ignoring the existence of an already established and recognised structure.
In other words, the threat of annexing of these independent countries from Russia is very real.The pattern of Russia’s wars, if you examine the history of the Russian Federation (which came into existence in 1991) is quite simple. You have this established sphere consisting of sovereign member states. A member state is offered rapprochement from a rival organisation in the west. Said state appears to accept the offers for whatever reason. Now there is a problem. Russia’s sphere is being undermined, with the further possibility of having a NATO state at its borders. Anybody can see a problem arising. This is Geopolitics 101.
Consequently, following this development, a war ensues (South Ossetian Conflict, Ukrainian Civil War), initiated by the emergence of pro-Russian separatism in that state.
Russia is indeed acting rationally according to its imperialistic goals.The goal is simple. Outright conquest is nearly impossible and in fact unnecessary. Fragmentation will prevent the state from falling into enemy hands for two reasons. First, it preoccupies and weakens the current government, and secondly, if the state fails (partition, reduction of territory), then the asset no longer exists for both the US and Russia.
Everybody knows that the USSR has lost the Cold War. We are talking about current affairs, and the Putin regime, which did not exist in 1948.Is there Russian aggression in Ukraine? Possibly.
If there is, is Russia’s aggression unprovoked (from both the Russian point of view and realpolitik)? No.
Is the Russian Federation on a rampage of actual expansion?
Compare maps of Russian spheres of influence from 1948 until the present day and you will have a definite answer.