Cruz Thread

[Vanny]

I think Trump could contend in the general for Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania (?), Michigan, Maryland (?). He pulls the working class, Buffalo/Long Island type white males - working class Catholics (Bill Donohue, yo! you out there? congrats on NY buddy! ) in the NE and industrial North (though of course NY and New England stay blue). He would clean up in the South, Midwest, traditional red states. I agree he would lose the West Coast, including Calif.

Trump in the general goes moderate, pro-diversity. Battle of gay marriage is over; legal but rare abortion, etc. He drops the wall, grants a form of amnesty (the “good” ones stay). National health care, progressive taxes. He appeals to Dems in their soft spots. No wars, talk to Palestine, etc. Even as he is doing this I think he can pull most of the GOP; his fans I don’t think care (or even know) if he is on the left or right. Much of the casual, mainstream (nonprimary voting) GOP will just vote for him because he is all that is left (he is a “winner”) and hope for the best. (minus real social conservatives, diehard NeverTrumpers (i.e. fiscal/ideological conservatives, you can count them on your hands and feet)). He will pull a lot of Dems, Independents. I think he could possibly defeat Hillary. The problem of course is that you would have a completely inexperienced, possibly even emotionally unbalanced egotripper in the White House. How much worse than Hillary I ask? About the same.

Cruz I think will lose steam. He will lose badly I predict in the next wave of Eastern states, PA, MD, CT, DE (can’t remember them all). I think the anti-Trump forces are back in full panic mode after last night (even though it was entirely predictable) so Cruz may get some traction by winning Indiana, possibly even Calif. In all fairness, a little over half of the GOP is still thoroughly terrified/sickened by the idea of Trump as nominee. You don’t reconcile yourself to this unless you are pretty free and easy with political ideology, i.e. you have to “make a deal” with your conscience. (I should add that Trump has to pull enough women and minorities away from Hillary but this is more doable than the left thinks; Trump is very skilled at what he does and he adjusts as necessary; he will get slicker and slicker at this)

I do think Cruz would lose in the general because of his high negatives. New York is definitely to the left of many in the red states parts of the country, but it is also where much of the corporate media/Hollywood/law/business/education is (literally and figuratively). Read the writing on the wall…

On principle I am with Cruz, which means defeat. If Trump wins the nomination outright or on the first ballot (quite likely), again, I do think he could actually defeat Clinton in the general. The NeverTrump folks try to paint him as a lunatic with populist tendencies, but much of the country sees through that and just sees a liberal Republican of the Giuliani stripe. (no disrespect to Sean Hannity here but the man is a fool if he can’t see this)

Is Kasich our last hope after all…?

I think Cruz still has a chance in some of the upcoming primaries.
He won’t get to 1237 but Trump may not either.

If Trump moves to the center as you described should he become the nominee-I wonder what my super-conservatives friends, who are strict constitutionalists, who feverently support Trump now, because he’s the outsider for the little guy, will think?
They support him because they see him as the outsider,and Lyin’ Ted as the Trojan horse for the establishment. If he pulls to the center like that, will they feel betrayed?
Just wondering. I have predicted he would do so for months, should he win the nomination.

 

[Lily_Bernans]

I think Cruz still has a chance in some of the upcoming primaries.
He won’t get to 1237 but Trump may not either.

If Trump moves to the center as you described should he become the nominee-I wonder what my super-conservatives friends, who are strict constitutionalists, who feverently support Trump now, because he’s the outsider for the little guy, will think?
They support him because they see him as the outsider,and Lyin’ Ted as the Trojan horse for the establishment. If he pulls to the center like that, will they feel betrayed?
Just wondering. I have predicted he would do so for months, should he win the nomination.

It’s now become mathematically impossible for Cruz to reach 1,237 before the convention. It’s going to be extremely difficult for Trump to do so, especially with Kasich still stealing some of the votes, but mathematically, it’s possible, just not probable. I don’t believe he will, as I think you indicated, and by changing his stance, he’s just giving his opponents food for fodder, i.e. attack. Can we trust what Trump says? Probably not anymore, his opponents will say. And those who voted for him because of what he did say are going to be disappointed. I think he would have fared better just staying true to who he is. He will garner a lot of delegates, especially in California, but enough to secure the nomination? I doubt it.

 

[FollowChrist34]

I think Cruz still has a chance in some of the upcoming primaries.
He won’t get to 1237 but Trump may not either.

If Trump moves to the center as you described should he become the nominee-I wonder what my super-conservatives friends, who are strict constitutionalists, who feverently support Trump now, because he’s the outsider for the little guy, will think?
They support him because they see him as the outsider,and Lyin’ Ted as the Trojan horse for the establishment. If he pulls to the center like that, will they feel betrayed?
Just wondering. I have predicted he would do so for months, should he win the nomination.

A vast vast majority will stick with him. They like him (this is what Obama was about; this is what Rubio had with his people): the single most important factor in electability. Nothing can touch it. (this is number one for getting a job too; if they like you they hire you) Now Trump mellows out, moves to the inside, gets professionals in line, aims at the center, minorities, Ivanka is out there talking to women. He loves Mexico, backs down on immigration. His base will see him as their Andrew Jackson really taking it to Washington, their antihero redefining Washington. They have provided the narrative all along. They have never seen Trump for what he is. The parallel to Obama is amazing. The Obama haze lasted for six years with me; if Obama believed in a policy, it was cool, good, the right thing to do - eventually people get disillusioned and they become more analytical.

Hillary has very little real, genuine enthusiasm - this is her weakness. The key will be can Trump counter the Dem narrative - racist, bigot, anti-Muslim, etc. I say yes, with enough people. Polls don’t matter much now at all. I have known that all along.

 

[Vanny]

It’s now become mathematically impossible for Cruz to reach 1,237 before the convention. It’s going to be extremely difficult for Trump to do so, especially with Kasich still stealing some of the votes, but mathematically, it’s possible, just not probable. I don’t believe he will, as I think you indicated, and by changing his stance, he’s just giving his opponents food for fodder, i.e. attack. Can we trust what Trump says? Probably not anymore, his opponents will say. And those who voted for him because of what he did say are going to be disappointed. I think he would have fared better just staying true to who he is. He will garner a lot of delegates, especially in California, but enough to secure the nomination? I doubt it.

Right I realize that. However there are still some states that could well go Cruz’s way(Nebraska, South Dakota, Indiana, Montana) Most now favor Cruz in the polls. Those are delegates that Trump won’t get. (admittedly not a lot) Trump will probably get California.

 

[Vanny]

A vast vast majority will stick with him. They like him (this is what Obama was about; this is what Rubio had with his people): the single most important factor in electability. Nothing can touch it. (this is number one for getting a job too; if they like you they hire you) Now Trump mellows out, moves to the inside, gets professionals in line, aims at the center, minorities, Ivanka is out there talking to women. He loves Mexico, backs down on immigration. His base will see him as their Andrew Jackson really taking it to Washington, their antihero redefining Washington. They have provided the narrative all along. They have never seen Trump for what he is. The parallel to Obama is amazing. The Obama haze lasted for six years with me; if Obama believed in a policy, it was cool, good, the right thing to do - eventually people get disillusioned and they become more analytical.

Hillary has very little real, genuine enthusiasm - this is her weakness. The key will be can Trump counter the Dem narrative - racist, bigot, anti-Muslim, etc. I say yes, with enough people. Polls don’t matter much now at all. I have known that all along.

My employer is a super duper conservative, pro life, disagrees with eminent domain.(never mind that Trump loves eminent domain!) He is also a fervent Trump supporter.
he is the type of person I’m thinking of.
I think what you said is correct, though. Heck I have friends who STILL defend Obama.
Pro life Christians, too.

 

[Lily_Bernans]

Right I realize that. However there are still some states that could well go Cruz’s way(Nebraska, South Dakota, Indiana, Montana) Most now favor Cruz in the polls. Those are delegates that Trump won’t get. (admittedly not a lot) Trump will probably get California.

Oh, I’m sure you’re right about Cruz winning those states, and the more delegates he has at convention time, the more convincing he can be about being the one who should be elected nominee.

 

[FollowChrist34]

I realize this sounds crazy, but what Trump ought to do is really pour the effort and resources into wooing the black vote, particularly the male black vote of working blacks. And he ought to do it on the basis of income and jobs. Most black men who work are no different from most white men who work. Not in any meaningful way. They both want exactly the same things, and largely value the same things.

At minimum, he would force Hillary to spend a lot of her time and money defensively. The Dems do have most of the “identity” groups, but they also have to have them.

Totally agree. He has 30% of blacks now. Hispanics too. And the women thing needs to be addressed - that is what killed Romney in the end. The other problem is the fact that so much of the GOP establishment (and yes talent) finds Trump so repulsive; associating with him is potentially career and/or consicence destroying. Trump will need guidance; he doesn’t have a clue how to do any of this and he has anger management issues to boot. And the press will massacre his lack of knowledge, policy. He is so poorly spoken; I can’t watch him for very long; it is painful; I switch the channel. He will need those teleprompters and speech writers.

 

[TMC]

Totally agree. He has 30% of blacks now. Hispanics too. And the women thing needs to be addressed - that is what killed Romney in the end. The other problem is the fact that so much of the GOP establishment (and yes talent) finds Trump so repulsive; associating with him is potentially career and/or consicence destroying. Trump will need guidance; he doesn’t have a clue how to do any of this and he has anger management issues to boot. And the press will massacre his lack of knowledge, policy. He is so poorly spoken; I can’t watch him for very long; it is painful; I switch the channel. He will need those teleprompters and speech writers.

What do you base those numbers on? I think Trump can do better than the average GOPer, but I have never seen him with anything close to 30% of the black vote.

 

[Lily_Bernans]

What do you base those numbers on? I think Trump can do better than the average GOPer, but I have never seen him with anything close to 30% of the black vote.

Trump said it.

This is from February, but there is no indication that Trump is doing any better with African Americans now:

factcheck.org/2016/02/trump-and-the-black-vote/

We should move this from the Cruz thread to the Trump thread.

 

[FollowChrist34]

What do you base those numbers on? I think Trump can do better than the average GOPer, but I have never seen him with anything close to 30% of the black vote.

thegatewaypundit.com/2015/09/report-donald-trump-doesnt-need-latino-voters-to-win-he-can-win-with-blacks/
This is from last September, so it is old - it puts him at 25% favorability with blacks.

Geraldo: I Predict Donald Trump Will Win 25% of African-American Vote (VIDEO)
thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/geraldo-i-predict-donald-trump-will-win-25-of-african-american-vote-video/

The 30% quote I saw on CNN (from a black guy who worked in the Obama administration warning that Trump could appeal to black communities if a counter narrative was not promptly put in place) I agree and see no reason that Trump cannot appeal to minorities. I know the Dems will do the “racist” theme but I question if it will work. Sanders has pulled blacks and women from Hillary in some states anyway. This proves they are not highly motivated to support her. I don’t know if the Dems can shut down Trump. The minority counterparts to the white elements of society supporting Trump now are the ones that would shift.

 

[TMC]

Trump said it.

This is from February, but there is no indication that Trump is doing any better with African Americans now:

factcheck.org/2016/02/trump-and-the-black-vote/

We should move this from the Cruz thread to the Trump thread.

Trump said it is a pretty low standard of proof. The polls I have seen put him at a similar level as other Republicans, although I think he could improve that a bit (but not to 30%).

 

[TMC]

thegatewaypundit.com/2015/09/report-donald-trump-doesnt-need-latino-voters-to-win-he-can-win-with-blacks/
This is from last September, so it is old - it puts him at 25% favorability with blacks.

Geraldo: I Predict Donald Trump Will Win 25% of African-American Vote (VIDEO)
thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/geraldo-i-predict-donald-trump-will-win-25-of-african-american-vote-video/

The 30% quote I saw on CNN (from a black guy who worked in the Obama administration warning that Trump could appeal to black communities if a counter narrative was not promptly put in place) I agree and see no reason that Trump cannot appeal to minorities. I know the Dems will do the “racist” theme but I question if it will work. Sanders has pulled blacks and women from Hillary in some states anyway. This proves they are not highly motivated to support her. I don’t know if the Dems can shut down Trump. The minority counterparts to the white elements of society supporting Trump now are the ones that would shift.

30% favorability is a lot different than 30% would vote for him. I find even 30% favorability to be a bit hard to believe.

 

[Lily_Bernans]

Trump said it is a pretty low standard of proof. The polls I have seen put him at a similar level as other Republicans, although I think he could improve that a bit (but not to 30%).

I don’t think he could ever reach 30%, either. Especially not with Hillary Clinton in the mix.

 

[10gr8kids]

That’s where the GOP delegate math seems a little off to me. You have these big states like New York and California with huge amounts of GOP delegates up for grabs, but relatively smaller numbers of Republicans. I saw something that said Trump got about 200,000 more actual votes in Ohio (where he got ~35% of the popular vote) than in New York (where he got ~61% of the popular vote). That’s a lot less Republicans. And yet, New York has more delegates. It seems like a New York GOP voter holds more sway than an Ohio GOP voter.

Yes, I wondered about this too.

 

[10gr8kids]

I’m not sure it’s exciting. It’s demoralizing for me sometimes.

Out of the 5 remaining I’m really not a fan of any of them.

I dislike 3 of them particularly, and I feel lukewarm about the other 2.

:sad_yes:

 

[Cathoholic]

FollowChrist34. You mentioned . . .

But I have realized that Cruz cannot win in the general. This is something the GOP needs to really think about.

This is what Democrats and liberal Republicans want people to think.

That kind of thinking got the Republicans Bob Dole. It also gave the voters John McCain and Mitt Romney.

• We need a “more moderate” Republican = Bob Dole
• We need a “more moderate” Republican = John McCain
• We need a “more moderate” Republican = Mitt Romney

When will America learn, you do not appeal to Democrats by putting up Republicans who are “Democrat lite”.

And if the Bush family did not have Ronald Regan’s coat tails to ride into the White House on, there would have been no Bush dynasty either.

Cruz CAN win in the general!

With Cruz and Hillary there will be a very clear contrast.

With Kasich, you get TPP, Common Core, Big Bank Bailouts (yes we will be facing bank bailout questions again as the whole Obama “economic recovery” is leveraged and not real courtesy of an “activist” Federal Reserve – see THAT here), etc.

By the time the general rolls around, voters will know Kasich is “Democrat lite” and they will opt for Hillary. Kasich won’t campaign hard against her (like McCain trying to play nice with Obama). Kasich can’t inspire or fund raise. That’s why in a three-man race, Kasich is running FOURTH!

Trump is broke! Not personally, but his campaign is flat broke. It is worse than broke. It is in debt big time. The Trump Campaign owes millions in loans to Donald Trump.

Contrary to what you are told, Trump is NOT self-funding his campaign. He is “self-leveraging” his campaign.

Donald Trump is going to NEED those tens of millions paid BACK to him from the Trump Campaign.

That will mean enormous amounts of money that COULD be funneled by the RNC to Republican Senate runners who are getting their seats challenged, and Republican House members who are in the same predicament, will WANT MONEY for their campaigns. But a LOT of the money they were SUPPOSED to get, will be being put into Trump’s campaign for President.

This means that money in the Trump Campaign, will HAVE TO start paying Donald Trump back.

This will mean LESS dollars to be spent attempting to get Trump elected, less dollars getting Senate Republicans elected, less dollars getting Republican House members elected (or re-elected).

A significant portion of this will inevitably need to be put into Trump’so bank account.

If he isn’t as wealthy as he says, it will be even worse.

Couple this with the media turning on Trump. Right now they WANT Trump to get the nomination. During the general, all of that will change (I recall McCain trying to play the “Maverick card” with the media in the general thinking it would work because it worked in the primary. The media proverbial lyrics spit on him. The “Maverick card” got McCain nothing in the General).

Sean Hannity, Greta Van Susteren, and Eric Bolling can’t get Trump elected. No matter how much cheerleadering they do.

So Trump is going to need REAL media that he will have to PAY for.

Trump is ALSO going to NEED a ground game for the general. He can’t sit and preach from the throne in Trump Towers. It won’t work.

Trump will need to quit burning his bridges. Just before the Wisconsin election he was talking about himself being “more presidential”. Hours later he’s screaming and hollering about “lying Ted”. He cannot garner the self control he needs. He is an adolescent in an adult’s body and everyone knows it.

He didn’t get off his duff to go meet with delegates in a MULTITUDE of states. When he gets shellacked there, he whines for two weeks about rigging, and cheating of the election process. He can’t be that stupid. He knows America isn’t a “democracy” but a “Republic”.

Republican delegates in Pennsylvania are UNCOMMITTED too! So even if Trump wins there, he will “lose”. Then we’ll have to listen to more childish hollering and phony charges.

What he is doing is making excuses in advance in case of future failures. And there WILL be future failures from Trump.

 

[Lily_Bernans]

They should nominate Trump. He has the most delegates and the most votes.

I hope they do nominate Cruz.

 

[TMC]

They should nominate Trump. He has the most delegates and the most votes.

I hope they do nominate Cruz.

I am a bit torn on that. I think Cruz is bad to the point of being dangerous. But part of me wants to see Cruz nominated because of what Cathoholic said a post or two ago. The hard right is convinced that if only the GOP ran an extremist like Cruz a surge of conservatives will appear out of thin air and carry the day. I believe that is a fantasy, but it may be the only way the GOP gets past it is to give it a try.

 

[Peter_J]

To get back to Ted Cruz, after his terrible outcome in NY yesterday, I don’t think anyone can be optimistic about his chances in the General. I know NY is Trump’s home state, but Cruz’s distant third place finish shows how poorly he does among a certain demographic, even if they’re Republicans. I’m talking about the more sophisticated, more “worldly”, less ideological, non-southern demographic. And the GOP nominee will meet that demographic not only in NY, but in the rest of the NE states, in Cailfornia and the entire West Coast. And the GOP nominee will have to do well with that group, and that group just does not like Cruz.

I say this as an unaffiliated who would really like to see Hillary at least get a good challenge in the fall.

As John Kasich often points out, he does better in head to head matchups with HRC than Cruz does – and much better than Trump does – but I just don’t know if nominating him (parachuting him in) at the convention would create too much ill will, among Cruz supporters and Trump supporters alike, for Kasich to have a chance going forward.

Of course, I’d rather see Jim Gilmore as the nominee than Trump.

 

[FollowChrist34]

I think Trump’s chances of winning the 1237 or on the first ballot have really been downplayed since Wisconsin. He has about a 50/50 shot. Cruz has been riding a wave of momentum. That momentum just hit a wall in New York.

But there are still 15 states to vote, so who knows. However, I think the sun may be setting on stopping Trump - I predict he does very well next Tuesday. I cannot see where Cruz regains momentum to override Trump going into the convention. Initially I supported Rubio, not Cruz, because I did not think Cruz could win the general election. I don’t see how he gets his negatives down. I don’t think we should cut off our nose to spite our face - put Cruz up just to give Trump his due, so to speak. If Trump is taking the GOP in another direction, fine. It will sort itself out in time. All this GOP bickering will just lead to a Hillary White House.

And, again, all this NE love for the Donald has woken me up. Just hold your nose and pretend for you are voting for Scott Brown on crack - post lobotomy.

Let me ask you this: would you vote for Scott Brown over Hillary Clinton?