Cruz Thread

[Joe_5859]

California, New York the rest of the West Coast are not going to be in contention for the Republicans for either Cruz or Trump in a General Election. But how long as it been for Republicans? That is not unique for just these candidates in this election.

Most of the North Eastern states are also safe blue states in the electoral college for Democrats, are they not?. Isn’t the only state that is more contested between Republicans and Democrats in the North East is Pennsylvania? That Republican primary will come next week.

That’s where the GOP delegate math seems a little off to me. You have these big states like New York and California with huge amounts of GOP delegates up for grabs, but relatively smaller numbers of Republicans. I saw something that said Trump got about 200,000 more actual votes in Ohio (where he got ~35% of the popular vote) than in New York (where he got ~61% of the popular vote). That’s a lot less Republicans. And yet, New York has more delegates. It seems like a New York GOP voter holds more sway than an Ohio GOP voter.

 

[grotto]

IMO Ted Cruz should not be defending the backroom deals - it is said that its been this way for many elections so a candidate should know how it works and be prepared!

“You should have known what the rules are” - how stupid when a scam is being pulled off.

If somebody has gotten away with dishonesty for a long time, that doesn’t mean they don’t have to own up! And, suffer the consequences. Lie, cheat, steal, those are not the rules to follow. How dumb does it have to get!

 

[Expatreprocedit]

California, New York the rest of the West Coast are not going to be in contention for the Republicans for either Cruz or Trump in a General Election. But how long as it been for Republicans? That is not unique for just these candidates in this election.

Most of the North Eastern states are also safe blue states in the electoral college for Democrats, are they not?. Isn’t the only state that is more contested between Republicans and Democrats in the North East is Pennsylvania? That Republican primary will come next week.

Trump would get every state that Cruz would get, plus, IF he runs a good election campaign (that’s a big if) would have a shot at NY, possibly California, NJ, Mass and NH. Cruz has no shot at any of those states.

 

[meltzerboy]

To get back to Ted Cruz, after his terrible outcome in NY yesterday, I don’t think anyone can be optimistic about his chances in the General. I know NY is Trump’s home state, but Cruz’s distant third place finish shows how poorly he does among a certain demographic, even if they’re Republicans. I’m talking about the more sophisticated, more “worldly”, less ideological, non-southern demographic. And the GOP nominee will meet that demographic not only in NY, but in the rest of the NE states, in Cailfornia and the entire West Coast. And the GOP nominee will have to do well with that group, and that group just does not like Cruz.

I say this as an unaffiliated who would really like to see Hillary at least get a good challenge in the fall.

Yes, but no Republican, including Trump, is likely to take New York or California in the general election, just as no Democrat is likely to take Texas or the southern states. The general election hinges, as it usually does, on the swing states of Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and a few others. Pennsylvania, while often considered a swing state, generally goes to the Democrats.

 

[FollowChrist34]

California, New York the rest of the West Coast are not going to be in contention for the Republicans for either Cruz or Trump in a General Election. But how long as it been for Republicans? That is not unique for just these candidates in this election.

Most of the North Eastern states are also safe blue states in the electoral college for Democrats, are they not?. Isn’t the only state that is more contested between Republicans and Democrats in the North East is Pennsylvania? That Republican primary will come next week.

I think Trump could contend in the general for Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania (?), Michigan, Maryland (?). He pulls the working class, Buffalo/Long Island type white males - working class Catholics (Bill Donohue, yo! you out there? congrats on NY buddy! ) in the NE and industrial North (though of course NY and New England stay blue). He would clean up in the South, Midwest, traditional red states. I agree he would lose the West Coast, including Calif.

Trump in the general goes moderate, pro-diversity. Battle of gay marriage is over; legal but rare abortion, etc. He drops the wall, grants a form of amnesty (the “good” ones stay). National health care, progressive taxes. He appeals to Dems in their soft spots. No wars, talk to Palestine, etc. Even as he is doing this I think he can pull most of the GOP; his fans I don’t think care (or even know) if he is on the left or right. Much of the casual, mainstream (nonprimary voting) GOP will just vote for him because he is all that is left (he is a “winner”) and hope for the best. (minus real social conservatives, diehard NeverTrumpers (i.e. fiscal/ideological conservatives, you can count them on your hands and feet)). He will pull a lot of Dems, Independents. I think he could possibly defeat Hillary. The problem of course is that you would have a completely inexperienced, possibly even emotionally unbalanced egotripper in the White House. How much worse than Hillary I ask? About the same.

Cruz I think will lose steam. He will lose badly I predict in the next wave of Eastern states, PA, MD, CT, DE (can’t remember them all). I think the anti-Trump forces are back in full panic mode after last night (even though it was entirely predictable) so Cruz may get some traction by winning Indiana, possibly even Calif. In all fairness, a little over half of the GOP is still thoroughly terrified/sickened by the idea of Trump as nominee. You don’t reconcile yourself to this unless you are pretty free and easy with political ideology, i.e. you have to “make a deal” with your conscience. (I should add that Trump has to pull enough women and minorities away from Hillary but this is more doable than the left thinks; Trump is very skilled at what he does and he adjusts as necessary; he will get slicker and slicker at this)

I do think Cruz would lose in the general because of his high negatives. New York is definitely to the left of many in the red states parts of the country, but it is also where much of the corporate media/Hollywood/law/business/education is (literally and figuratively). Read the writing on the wall…

On principle I am with Cruz, which means defeat. If Trump wins the nomination outright or on the first ballot (quite likely), again, I do think he could actually defeat Clinton in the general. The NeverTrump folks try to paint him as a lunatic with populist tendencies, but much of the country sees through that and just sees a liberal Republican of the Giuliani stripe. (no disrespect to Sean Hannity here but the man is a fool if he can’t see this)

Is Kasich our last hope after all…?

 

[estesbob]

I’m not talking about delegates. I’m talking about actual votes. Even taking the Repub. rules into consideration, she has millions more votes than anyone else. Some people may not like her, but they believe she is qualified. Other people do, genuinely, like her.

Again trump was facing up to 16 other candidates which split the vote condiderably

 

[estesbob]

Been asked and answered.

So Donald Trump runs in Fla against 6 other candidates Hillary runs against one How does her getting more vote in the situation relevant?

 

[estesbob]

Yes, but no Republican, including Trump, is likely to take New York or California in the general election, just as no Democrat is likely to take Texas or the southern states. The general election hinges, as it usually does, on the swing states of Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and a few others. Pennsylvania, while often considered a swing state, generally goes to the Democrats.

I think Trump could take NY

 

[Lily_Bernans]

I think Clinton would take Ohio and Pennsylvania.

One problem for Trump would be that Hillary does well in cities with a diverse population. She would pull in the votes in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia. I also think she’d take Florida. She does well with Hispanics.

Hillary has the broadest base. Trump has alienated women, African-Americans, Muslim-Americans, Native Americans, Hispanics, and every other ethnic group out there. Still, he’d give Hillary a better fight than Cruz.

 

[Mary_Gail_36]

I think Trump could take NY

I don’t know, the last 30 something years, I think NY voted for Reagan against Mondale. That’s the last time, I believe NY voted for the Republican candidate.

This election, though, is really different than any I can remember, so you could be right.

As far as I can recall, the candidates have been decided before the NY primaries for many years. I’ve never been able to vote in a presidential primary before.

 

[FollowChrist34]

I don’t know, the last 30 something years, I think NY voted for Reagan against Mondale. That’s the last time, I believe NY voted for the Republican candidate.

This election, though, is really different than any I can remember, so you could be right.

As far as I can recall, the candidates have been decided before the NY primaries for many years. I’ve never been able to vote in a presidential primary before.

I know. It is so exciting isn’t it. I am voting in Washington for Cruz. I have never voted GOP in a primary in this state. If Cruz really starts to slide I might go for Kasich - he might be a dark horse in this. But we need to prepare ourselves - Trump has it. Denial is not our friend.

 

[Mary_Gail_36]

I know. It is so exciting isn’t it. I am voting in Washington for Cruz. I have never voted GOP in a primary in this state. If Cruz really starts to slide I might go for Kasich - he might be a dark horse in this. But we need to prepare ourselves - Trump has it. Denial is not our friend.

I’m not sure it’s exciting. It’s demoralizing for me sometimes.

Out of the 5 remaining I’m really not a fan of any of them.

I dislike 3 of them particularly, and I feel lukewarm about the other 2.

 

[FollowChrist34]

I’m not sure it’s exciting. It’s demoralizing for me sometimes.

Out of the 5 remaining I’m really not a fan of any of them.

I dislike 3 of them particularly, and I feel lukewarm about the other 2.

I agree in a way. But I have realized that Cruz cannot win in the general. This is something the GOP needs to really think about. Trump has a better chance. I don’t know how much better than Hillary he will actually be - and I do believe his “core” is moderate Republican territory. I trust him when he says he will rely on his cabinet. He may have learned something with this close call - he almost lost everything to Cruz, right - his butt was kicked in the delegate pulling “ground game.” He is now in recovery mode. Trump learns from his mistakes, which makes him a good politician. His moderate stance ironically is quite helpful in pulling those in the center, making victory possible for the GOP. I think he is tough enough to push back on the left media / Dem smear campaign that will come his way. He withstood the NeverTrumpers, right? Just pray he will do enough on social issues, etc. I predict major backing down on immigration. I don’t care on economic policy, taxes, health care, really. I agree with the Dems/Trump here. He is better than Hillary. Could be good on foreign policy too. I am being realistic here - not happy. We have to adjust or we lose.

 

[TMC]

It seems easier for a candidate to get more votes in a field which had a maximum of four candidates than it is for somebody in a field of seventeen, which has been slowly shrinking.

True, but one of the reasons the GOP field was so big for so long is that none of the candidates was doing well enough to force the others out. And now that both fields are small, she still got more votes in NY than Trump and Cruz combined. By any reasonable measure, she is a strong candidate.

 

[FollowChrist34]

True, but one of the reasons the GOP field was so big for so long is that none of the candidates was doing well enough to force the others out. And now that both fields are small, she still got more votes in NY than Trump and Cruz combined. By any reasonable measure, she is a strong candidate.

Uh…yes, in New York. I don’t think anyone is arguing that New York will go red in November. Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1 in that state. This is like bragging that Trump will pull more votes than Clinton in Mississippi. :yup:

 

[TMC]

I think Trump could contend in the general for Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania (?), Michigan, Maryland (?). He pulls the working class, Buffalo/Long Island type white males - working class Catholics (Bill Donohue, yo! you out there? congrats on NY buddy! ) in the NE and industrial North (though of course NY and New England stay blue). He would clean up in the South, Midwest, traditional red states. I agree he would lose the West Coast, including Calif.

Trump in the general goes moderate, pro-diversity. Battle of gay marriage is over; legal but rare abortion, etc. He drops the wall, grants a form of amnesty (the “good” ones stay). National health care, progressive taxes. He appeals to Dems in their soft spots. No wars, talk to Palestine, etc. Even as he is doing this I think he can pull most of the GOP; his fans I don’t think care (or even know) if he is on the left or right. Much of the casual, mainstream (nonprimary voting) GOP will just vote for him because he is all that is left (he is a “winner”) and hope for the best. (minus real social conservatives, diehard NeverTrumpers (i.e. fiscal/ideological conservatives, you can count them on your hands and feet)). He will pull a lot of Dems, Independents. I think he could possibly defeat Hillary. The problem of course is that you would have a completely inexperienced, possibly even emotionally unbalanced egotripper in the White House. How much worse than Hillary I ask? About the same.

Cruz I think will lose steam. He will lose badly I predict in the next wave of Eastern states, PA, MD, CT, DE (can’t remember them all). I think the anti-Trump forces are back in full panic mode after last night (even though it was entirely predictable) so Cruz may get some traction by winning Indiana, possibly even Calif. In all fairness, a little over half of the GOP is still thoroughly terrified/sickened by the idea of Trump as nominee. You don’t reconcile yourself to this unless you are pretty free and easy with political ideology, i.e. you have to “make a deal” with your conscience. (I should add that Trump has to pull enough women and minorities away from Hillary but this is more doable than the left thinks; Trump is very skilled at what he does and he adjusts as necessary; he will get slicker and slicker at this)

I do think Cruz would lose in the general because of his high negatives. New York is definitely to the left of many in the red states parts of the country, but it is also where much of the corporate media/Hollywood/law/business/education is (literally and figuratively). Read the writing on the wall…

On principle I am with Cruz, which means defeat. If Trump wins the nomination outright or on the first ballot (quite likely), again, I do think he could actually defeat Clinton in the general. The NeverTrump folks try to paint him as a lunatic with populist tendencies, but much of the country sees through that and just sees a liberal Republican of the Giuliani stripe. (no disrespect to Sean Hannity here but the man is a fool if he can’t see this)

Is Kasich our last hope after all…?

I like Kasich, but he is getting no traction. I think you have it mostly right. Trump can beat Hillary. To do so, he is going to take some of the crazy out of his campaign (already started), and turn towards the moderate center (which will start post-convention). Cruz can’t beat Hillary. At this point the GOP’s only hope is to nominate someone who is not really a Republican and who has uncertain (at best) positions on the issues.

 

[TMC]

Uh…yes, in New York. I don’t anyone is arguing that New York will go red in November. Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1 in that state. This is like bragging that Trump will pull more votes than Clinton in Mississippi. :yup:

Well, Trump claims that he can put NY in play. I don’t see that either, but that is his claim. My point is that it is silly to suggest that Hillary is a weak candidate, as some seem to be doing.

 

[meltzerboy]

I think Trump could take NY

He might, especially if Sanders’ supporters do not throw their support behind Clinton. But Trump won’t fare too well in NYC (except for Staten Island), which has such a large electorate. He would, however, do much better than Cruz; that’s for sure.

 

[Ridgerunner]

He might, especially if Sanders’ supporters do not throw their support behind Clinton. But Trump won’t fare too well in NYC (except for Staten Island), which has such a large electorate. He would, however, do much better than Cruz; that’s for sure.

I realize this sounds crazy, but what Trump ought to do is really pour the effort and resources into wooing the black vote, particularly the male black vote of working blacks. And he ought to do it on the basis of income and jobs. Most black men who work are no different from most white men who work. Not in any meaningful way. They both want exactly the same things, and largely value the same things.

At minimum, he would force Hillary to spend a lot of her time and money defensively. The Dems do have most of the “identity” groups, but they also have to have them.

 

[meltzerboy]

I realize this sounds crazy, but what Trump ought to do is really pour the effort and resources into wooing the black vote, particularly the male black vote of working blacks. And he ought to do it on the basis of income and jobs. Most black men who work are no different from most white men who work. Not in any meaningful way. They both want exactly the same things, and largely value the same things.

At minimum, he would force Hillary to spend a lot of her time and money defensively. The Dems do have most of the “identity” groups, but they also have to have them.

I think you’re on the right path (even if Trump is not). I would expand that to working-class people (particularly men) of all ethnic groups, including Hispanics and Asians as well as Blacks.

As to Cruz, Evangelicals and socially-conservative Catholics are his base, which he certainly cannot afford to lose. But is this enough for him to win? I have serious doubts.