Does Nate Silver still have Hillary as the DNC candidate? We take this serious?
He stated that, as of right now, she’s still the most likely person to win the Dem nomination. Which, btw, is true, unless she’s arrested and has a grand jury hearing. Unless and until this happens, she’ll be able to convince most Dems that all this is a “GOP witchhunt”. Sheesh - she’d probably be able to do this, anyway, if she goes to a grand jury and isn’t indicted, but it’d take up a huge part of her time during the campaign, and it’d be difficult for her to focus on both a grand jury hearing and the campaign at the same time.
But, as of right now, Bernie Sanders only leads Hillary in New Hampshire - Hillary still leads everywhere else, including IA, though by a much smaller margin than she did in April.
Regardless, the IA caucus is still 5 1/2 months away. If a week is an eternity in the 24/7 election news cycle, right now is really still too early to see anything. Remember, at this time in the 2012 election cycle (summer 2011), Michelle Bachmann led the GOP polls, followed by Hermann Cain in October. The problem right now is that the field is too crowded, and the announcements about “who’s ahead in the polls” just looks at the first choice - and doesn’t mention how many people have DQ’d that candidate in their minds. Trump may have the most people saying that he’s their first choice, at 20-25%, depending on the poll. But, 55-60% (depending on the poll) have someone else as their first choice, leaving 15-25% (depending on the poll) stating “NONE OF THESE”. Yes, “None of these” ranks in the top three in every poll. And more than half of GOP voters have already DQ’d Trump in their minds. The candidates that most haven’t DQ’d are in the “second group”, and who end up being the candidates that the political pundits believed would be the “contenders” - Walker, JEB, and Rubio. JEB is going to have problems with his brother and Iraq, which leaves Walker and Rubio, who are polling about the same (in the mid-single digits), but who are both poised to break out when other candidates drop out, because they are both high on people’s 2nd and 3rd choice lists.