Europe CoronaVirus thread

[Crocus]

mrad25:

how did the virus spread so quickly and with such virulence in a month to the rest of the world?

Are the mathematics of exponential growth still unclear.
The situation in China at that time was about 1000 cases and 50 deaths
South Korea reached that number of cases (but fewer deaths) a month later.
The US reached that number of cases and deaths mid March.
Both South Korea and US had the first documented case on ~Jan 20.
Thailand and Japan had cases reported a week before that.

The spread is hardly unexpected. And if “virulence” you mean the extend to infection, that seems to be dictated by the measures taken - or not taken - to halt the spread.

All it takes is one infected person on one airplane, followed by say, 349 passengers that fan out to wherever they happen to go, to the ends of the earth, for business or pleasure. Within 2 weeks 349 contact 1000, etc., etc.

 

[Victoria33]

All it takes is one infected person on one airplane, followed by say, 349 passengers that fan out to wherever they happen to the ends of the earth, for business or pleasure. Within 2 weeks 349 contact 1000, etc., etc.

Right, it depends on how contagious the virus is, some viruses apparently are not as contagious. This one is somewhat deadly but others are much more so.

 

[Victoria33]

Are the mathematics of exponential growth still unclear.
The situation in China at that time was about 1000 cases and 50 deaths
South Korea reached that number of cases (but fewer deaths) a month later.
The US reached that number of cases and deaths mid March.
Both South Korea and US had the first documented case on ~Jan 20.
Thailand and Japan had cases reported a week before that.

The spread is hardly unexpected. And if “virulence” you mean the extend to infection, that seems to be dictated by the measures taken - or not taken - to halt the spread.

You make the claim we knew all of this.

US intelligence seems to say different.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-u-s-intelligence-tells-trump-that-china-intentionally-lied-about-coronavirus-outbreak-report-says

Parts of Asia too, have had to deal with these outbreaks more and are somewhat experienced.

H1N1 was on a tear for months and over 12K killed before significant steps were taken per my understanding.
.

 

[mrad25]

I understand seeing that spread in China, but why would the spread world wide start happening for the most part weeks after the Wuhan lockdown? It seems the initial outbreaks worldwide starting happening 2 to 3 weeks after the Wuhan travel restrictions, and most likely that means they were incubated also during the Wuhan travel restrictions, no? It seems to me the only rational explanation is this occurred much earlier than what’s being reported from China. Thousands of people worldwide had to be infected early on in early Feb or even before to see the numbers that we are seeing?

 

[mrad25]

All it takes is one infected person on one airplane, followed by say, 349 passengers that fan out to wherever they happen to go, to the ends of the earth, for business or pleasure. Within 2 weeks 349 contact 1000, etc., etc.

Yes, but that’s assuming everyone on the plane becomes affected.

 

[Crocus]

The spread is hardly unexpected. And if “virulence” you mean the extend to infection, that seems to be dictated by the measures taken - or not taken - to halt the spread.

You make the claim we knew all of this.

US intelligence seems to say different.

Today is what really matters, we cannot change what is past, how do we go forward?

What is your perception of the distillation of a consistent and coordinated message, that can be depended upon, as of today.

What are the measures in place?
Where and how are they being implemented?

 

[mrad25]

Yes, today is important and how we prepare in the future, but what is more important is getting to the bottom of how this occurred so it doesn’t occur again. Even what one believes to be the best strategy can be unsuccessful if you don’t know and understand the root cause of a problem.

 

[Victoria33]

Today is what really matters, we cannot change what is past, how do we go forward?

Not really. I read an article comparing this to Pearl Harbor. Sure, we deal with the issues to best deal with the problem but we certainly do not turn our back on the past.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/dont-let-china-off-the-hook.php

No, we don’t just say, that’s in the past. A deadlier virus conceivably could come along.

Something in the lab more deadly apparently could be created and unleashed on the public, there’s a big lesson on this.

 

[Crocus]

Crocus:

All it takes is one infected person on one airplane, followed by say, 349 passengers that fan out to wherever they happen to go, to the ends of the earth, for business or pleasure. Within 2 weeks 349 contact 1000, etc., etc.

Yes, but that’s assuming everyone on the plane becomes affected.

That’s one plane. The sky is or was full of planes criss crossing the whole world. Many, many opportunities to pass infection through successive incubation periods.

 

[Victoria33]

Coronavirus is a war we can't afford to lose - UPI.com

"War" has been declared against the coronavirus. But waging war against any inanimate entity is inherently risky. Consider how wars against poverty, crime, drugs and terror fared.

www.upi.com

The URL here, if one visits the link and it is UPI not some biased source calls “Coronavirus a different Pearl Harbor”. I don’t think we just brushed that off.

Recalling a certain parallel with the immediate aftermath of Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7, 1941 is instructive. It is Dec. 8 in Washington. After President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s stirring speech to Congress and the subsequent declaration of war, how were the public and government grappling with the attack that put the U.S. Navy’s battleship fleet at the bottom of Pearl Harbor?

 

[Crocus]

No we don’t just say, that’s in the past. A deadlier virus conceivably could come along.

Something in the lab more deadly apparently could be created and unleashed on the public, there’s a big lesson on this.

Sorry, I didn’t realize your concern is on the next pandemic. I am more concerned about the immediate months and weeks. My bad.

I guess I just keep seeing a parallel: virus in Wuhan, spreads. Virus in your neighborhood, spreads. (Annnd, what is being done to stop it.)

 

[mrad25]

But the sky was not full of planes after January 23rd from people from Wuhan and China. Again, most of the cases worldwide were reported 2 to 3 weeks after the lockdown in Wuhan and travel restrictions. Was that because testing was lacking worldwide and reporting was late, or the incubation period was longer than the avg. 2-3 days being reported and is more closer to the 14 days or this virus was lingering around and the outbreak was earlier in China than what was reported?

 

[Crocus]

All this can only be speculation. Scientists are only just beginning to gather information and looking at hypotheses. Mutations, timelines. Important. But for us, not urgent.

What is important and urgent though, is our present response, guided by prudent leadership. Praying for such at the moment.

(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

 

[Victoria33]

But the sky was not full of planes after January 23rd from people from Wuhan and China. Again, most of the cases worldwide were reported 2 to 3 weeks after the lockdown in Wuhan and travel restrictions. Was that because testing was lacking worldwide and reporting was late, or the incubation period was longer than the avg. 2-3 days being reported and is more closer to the 14 days or this virus was lingering around and the outbreak was earlier in China than what was reported?

That’s all very true and in fact, there were stories that symptoms may not appear for 21 days.

https://www.coronavirus.video/301691/coronovirus-incubation-period-upto-21.php

And then, of course, we all know, some people would test negative when positive, multiple tests might show different things.

 

[dvdjs]

You make the claim we knew all of this.

We knew all this.
So did the countries that responded appropriately.

why would the spread world wide start happening for the most part weeks after the Wuhan lockdown?

The first cases in Japan, Thailand, South Korea, USA, Taiwan, Singapore, Macao, Hong Kong, Vietnam, France, Nepal, Canada, Australia, Malaysia, Germany, and Sri Lanka were all reported on or before January 26., 2020. Another nine countries had their first cases bore the end of January 2020. Do these facts answer your question?

Yes, but that’s assuming everyone on the plane becomes affected.

We have a good idea of Ro of this virus, and the doubling time at hte onset. One person, in a month, infects a thousand people.

I read an article comparing this to Pearl Harbor.

Among the many differences that make this comparison outrageous, is that information about the identity and genome of the virus - crucial information for testing and for work towards vaccines was published by Chinese scietist by in early January. Papers on epidemiology and therapeutics were also appearing in early January. And knowledge of the measures being taken to arrest the spread were also known in January. And now we are outbidding others in the west to get PPE from China

For this to be like Pearl Harbor, we would have none of this sharing of knowledge and materiall and would have had to have had Roosevelt who waited until the middle of February to respond.

 

[Victoria33]

We knew all this.
So did the countries that responded appropriately.

No we didn’t. China did not let on in their reports. So, we will just say you reject US intelligence.

 

[Victoria33]

Among the many differences that make this comparison outrageous, is that information about the identity and genome of the virus - crucial information for testing and for work towards vaccines was published by Chinese scietist by in early January. Papers on epidemiology and therapeutics were also appearing in early January. And knowledge of the measures being taken to arrest the spread were also known in January. And now we are outbidding others in the west to get PPE from China

For this to be like Pearl Harbor, we would have none of this sharing of knowledge and materiall and would have had to have had Roosevelt who waited until the middle of February to respond.

So you say but that is just your opinion and I respect that.

Where did this virus originate? If you are so certain. I mean a place in Wuhan. Any ideas? If you think we know so much, I would like to probe your knowledge then.

The source is UPI, so your problems would be with them. I think they are just saying the virus has put us on a war footing. Many people agree with that actually.

South Korea had tests, isn’t that rather significant? Apparently, we did not. Is that not rather significant rather than to just gloss over that?

 

[mrad25]

The first cases in Japan, Thailand, South Korea, USA, Taiwan, Singapore, Macao, Hong Kong, Vietnam, France, Nepal, Canada, Australia, Malaysia, Germany, and Sri Lanka were all reported on or before January 26., 2020. Another nine countries had their first cases bore the end of January 2020. Do these facts answer your question?

Is the worldofmeters.info incorrect? I’m seeing different numbers on first reported cases. Maybe I’m missing something.

 

[Victoria33]

One can talk about these dates all they want, if we did not have tests because of the CDC, what were we suppose to do?? How about some answers on that?

 

[Sweetpeas]

As pointed out elsewhere 1.2B people in Africa, less cases than one neighborhood in NYC. Same in the Philippines, most densely highly populated country in the world with very heavy international travel but low case numbers. Something else is at play here I think. I’m seeing an interesting link between weather and countries and states/cities. Much higher outbreaks in states/cities, countries where temperature is between 40-50 degrees and with lower humidity levels than others.