Hillary Clinton Thread

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If Hilary gets into office, America is as good as dead. She’s a liar, a criminal and belongs in jail!
 
Good_Tidings said:
He is extremely accurate. But this makes me nervous because the Republicans can see the same data. I wouldn’t be surprised if they replace Trump at the convention.
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They’d better dump him. We can’t let either of them win the White House.
 
Songcatcher said:
In 2008 Nate Silver successfully called the outcomes of 49 out of 50 states in the general election. In 2012 he successfully called all 50.
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Did he make those predictions in June of those years too, or much closer to the actual election? I think polls this far out are essentially useless for predicting the winner on election day.
 
Donald Trump got an unprecedented amount of free press during a primary with an unprecedented number of candidates. Even in an ordinary primary, it’s very difficult to predict who is going to win early on.

Anyone who said Donald Trump was a shew-in was guessing and got lucky.

A two person race is much easier to predict.
 
Good_Tidings said:
He is extremely accurate. But this makes me nervous because the Republicans can see the same data. I wouldn’t be surprised if they replace Trump at the convention.
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I think that would not only guarantee a loss, but a dismantling of the party for them.
 
And choice two is Cruz at the convention. :eek: The odds anyone else is even a remote thought doesn’t seem realistic. That ought to chew up a good amount of that cash Hillary stockpiled resetting.
 
Good_Tidings said:
Can you summarize your points?
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He said Trump had only a 5% chance of winning the Republican nomination. Based on that it appears he is saying that Trump has almost as big a chance of beating Hillary then he did of getting the Republican nomination.
 
oliver927 said:
Did he make those predictions in June of those years too, or much closer to the actual election? I think polls this far out are essentially useless for predicting the winner on election day.
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He updates his predictions as time goes on. The uncertainty in the data is partly why Trump is given such a relatively high chance. If Hillary were to be 7 points ahead in late October, then Trump wouldn’t be a one in five chance to turn it around.

Silver’s final predictions will come in the last couple of days of the campaign, and likely to be much more confident about who will win.
 
Both sides have reasons to be nervous this far out. This is likely to be a unique election and probably the only one that someone as unlikable as Hillary can have a chance at winning.
 
Good_Tidings said:
He is extremely accurate. But this makes me nervous because the Republicans can see the same data. I wouldn’t be surprised if they replace Trump at the convention.
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I don’t find that a strong possibility.
 
It seems a couple of centrist-populist parties should emerge to pick apart the two major ones on issues, I wonder why this hasn’t happened yet.
 
Thorolfr said:
What about Donald Trump? Does he deserve to be in the White House?
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I would say that as individuals, neither one of them deserves to be in the White House. They are both morally flawed individuals. However, I view Trump as a lessor evil. Not much of a lessor evil, but lessor nonetheless.
 
SyroMalankara said:
It seems a couple of centrist-populist parties should emerge to pick apart the two major ones on issues, I wonder why this hasn’t happened yet.
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3rd parties have to fight tooth and nail to get on the ballot at the local levels. Check this article out:

tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2015/07/02/federal-court-agrees-tn-ballot-law-onerous-third-parties/29638071/
One of the highest courts in the land agreed with a Tennessee court’s ruling that the state’s law governing which political parties may have candidates on the ballot “imposes a greater burden” on third parties.
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The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit, a court at a judicial level below only the U.S. Supreme Court, ruled Thursday that Tennessee’s requirements for “minor” parties such as the Green Party or Constitution Party violate the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment.
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Silver wasn’t just wrong about Trump in the beginning, he stayed wrong about Trump well into the actual primary season. I would take this one with a grain of salt.

That said, it’s the swing states that are key. Trump must take most if not all of them to have a chance.
 
With a good number of Sanders’s supporters pledging to not vote for Clinton, this prediction could be off.
 
adawgj said:
With a good number of Sanders’s supporters pledging to not vote for Clinton, this prediction could be off.
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I think this will be driven by future FBI revelations, that will turn them to the Green Party or keep them home.
 
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