JSRG:
otjm:
One might think that reality should have some bearing on the choices one makes when voting.
If one wants to insist on “reality” then one shouldn’t bother voting at all, at least not in a presidential election, given the
astoundingly low odds your vote would actually decide anything. Spend the time you would’ve spent voting getting a lottery ticket instead; better odds there.
The problem with your over generalization is that it might be true in some places but not in all. It might also be generally true but that doesn’t mean it should be followed everywhere.
In the swing states a few votes could make a huge difference, and in a tight election one swing state could decide the outcome.
No, it’s true everywhere, not just swing states.
Now, the electoral college essentially makes the presidential election a state election rather than a federal one insofar as your vote making a difference. And for your vote to matter in a swing state, the election has to be decided by only 1 vote in your state. Want to know how many times in US history a statewide election has been decided by a single vote? Once, in the Massachusetts governor election in 1839. But that election had far fewer people voting in it than would vote now–obviously, fewer people voting means a higher chance of an election decided by 1 vote. But the smallest swing state, I believe, is New Hampshire, which in 2016 had about 14 times as many people vote as in that Massachusetts election. In other words, the only time it ever happened in US history was once, and in substantially more favorable circumstances.
So the odds of your state’s election being decided by 1 vote, as is required for your vote to make a difference, is essentially zero. In 200+ years of US history it’s only happened once and, again, under far more favorable circumstances.
Now all of that is bad enough and a warrant to not vote at all if the goal is to affect the actual outcome of the election. But it actually gets worse. Not only does the above have to happen with the state election being decided by 1 vote, but then the election has to
also be so close in the electoral college that your state flipping could make a difference. For example, you could flip any single state from Trump to Hillary in 2016 and the result would be the same; even if any state was decided by 1 vote, it wouldn’t have affected the outcome. So not only does the virtually impossible have to happen by the state election being decided by 1 vote, it
also has to be an electoral college victory on a margin smaller than that of your state’s electors.
So if the argument is “don’t vote third party, it won’t affect the election outcome” then you logically shouldn’t bother voting at all given how obviously and astoundingly low the odds that any vote of yours will decide the presidential election.