Lockdowns never again: Sweden was right, and we were wrong

[Cathoholic]

Lockdowns never again: Sweden was right, and we were wrong​

Basically, Sweden did the exact opposite of what most Americans tragically still believe are the necessary requirements to reach the outcome that Sweden has achieved.

Fri Aug 14, 2020 - 8:41 pm EST

(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

ALEXANDRE SCHNEIDER / GETTY IMAGES

By William Sullivan

August 14, 2020 (American Thinker) — In life, we encounter things that may work in theory but not in practice. Communism is famously one of those things. Time travel is another. With any luck, Americans will soon come to realize that strict social distancing, economic lockdowns, and mask-wearing all belong in that category of supposedly sound ideas that simply don’t work in reality.

For evidence, let’s look to Sweden. As Dr. Sebastian Rushworth, an E.R. doctor at a hospital in Stockholm, writes on his blog, “COVID is over in Sweden. People have gone back to their normal lives and barely anyone is getting infected anymore.”

Unlike so many other countries, “Sweden never went into complete lockdown,” Dr. Rushworth writes. Non-essential businesses remained open, people continued frequenting restaurants, the kids stayed in school, and “very few people have bothered with face masks.”

Basically, Sweden did the exact opposite of what most Americans tragically still believe are the necessary requirements to reach the outcome that Sweden has achieved.

He argues what should now be obvious to any rational, thinking person, which is that “the size of the response in most of the world (not including Sweden) has been totally disproportionate to the threat.”

Naysayers may point to Sweden’s mortality rate to discount its success. But the virus has taken nearly 6,000 people in a country of 10 million, and one that tallies about 100,000 annual deaths each year. Given that 70 percent of those who died with COVID were over the age of 80 and very unhealthy, he argues, “quite a few of those 6,000 would have died this year anyway,” making COVID a “mere blip in terms of its effect on mortality.” And while Sweden will likely continue to see deaths from COVID, it will likely never see anything close to those numbers again. The large number of deaths can be clearly attributed to a “complete lack of any immunity” to this novel coronavirus.

A few months ago, Dr. Rushworth says, “practically everyone who was tested had COVID,” even if the presenting symptom was a “nose bleed” or “stomach pain.” Today, he reports that he hasn’t seen a COVID patient in over a month, and even when he tests patients with fever or cough, the “tests invariably come back as negative.”

To be clear, Sweden’s economy is wide open. No one is social distancing or wearing a ridiculous mask. Life is back to normal, and the infection rate is still falling. It’s pretty safe to say the population in Sweden has now built some level of immunity to the virus . . .

Lockdowns never again: Sweden was right, and we were wrong - LifeSite

 

[umamibella]

Sweden has 572 deaths per million and is one of the very few countries in the world with a higher death rate than the US and we should follow their lead? That doesn’t make sense.

Makes no sense at all, The reporter has not thought this through.

 

[AuldP]

It’s pretty safe to say the population in Sweden has now built some level of immunity to the virus . . .

…antibody surveys suggest only about 20 per cent of people in Stockholm have been infected, similar to levels in London and New York. That is far short of near [the 70 per cent level estimated to be needed (to achieve herd immunity).
Read more: Is Sweden's coronavirus strategy a cautionary tale or a success story? | New Scientist

 

[Roselle]

I hope so. It would be nice if we followed the Swedish model if such a situation happens again in the future. The economic shut down in the US has had several negative consequences too. They make a good point too that over 70% of those who passed from COVID were 80 years and older, in poor health, and likely would have passed this year from other conditions if it wasn’t for the virus. Glad that Swedish death rate continues to fall.

The other day I read an article about the latest Wuhan virus data in the US. Glad that we are improving here in the US also.

Pro Perspectives 8/13/20 | Billionaire's Portfolio

excerpt:

August 13, 2020

About a month ago, as all of the “spiking cases” hysteria was being peddled by the media, we took a sober look at the raw data (from Harvard, here), and concluded that the rise in cases, was simply representing the slow closing of the gap between the reported infection rate and what the CDC believes to be the real infection rate (at least 10 times as many), while revealing a death rate that is converging toward the annual flu death rate.

That has indeed been the case.

As we discussed, the rate of change in cases has only led to the rate-of-change in deaths-to-cases declining, and declining rapidly.

Let’s take a look at some updated charts …

 

[LeafByNiggle]

I can’t believe people are still touting Sweden as a great success when the data shows the opposite:

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Just see where Sweden stands in per capita deaths. The only large nations doing worse than Sweden are Spain, Italy, Peru, and the UK. Everyone else is doing better than Sweden. So much for their “doing it right!”. Polls show a growing number of Swedes are not confident their government is handling this crisis well.

They make a good point too that over 70% of those who passed from COVID were 80 years and older, in poor health, and likely would have passed this year from other conditions if it wasn’t for the virus.

It is a good point if one does not respect life from conception to natural death. We should call this dismissal of elderly deaths “passive euthanasia.” Sweden may indeed reep a great economic benefit in the future because now that their are clearing away all those useless old people, they will not be burdened with the costs of their health care in the future. That is what this line of thinking implies.

Let’s take a look at some updated charts …

Yes, the one I posted above was updated yesterday.

 

[vz71]

Sweden has 572 deaths per million

And how many do they have due to auto accidents…or cancer…or heart disease…or drug use?
If they don’t shut down for those either, why is covid any different?

 

[hvizsgyak]

Sweden discriminates against elderly with COVID-19; 'active euthanasia,' critics say | World News

I hate to disagree with you on this one but Sweden appears to have a “survival of the fittest” mentality. We here in the United States and really across the world should have had a better way to deal with the pandemic. Unfortunately, our economy doesn’t allow for pandemic hiccups. We as a nation should be smart enough to come up with a better plan for dealing with these emergency situations.

 

[Zzyzx_Road]

If we accept that Sweden so far has experienced 572 Covid-19 deaths per million population, then there are at least five individual US states with higher rates, all of whom practiced the full gamut of lockdowns, social distancing and masking:

NJ 1786
NY 1670
MA 1273
AZ 607
PA 586

By comparison, FL is at 431 so far and I think it is likely they will catch up with Sweden in that state.

Now we can qualify four of those five states by remembering that they were the most prominent states to stuff the infected elderly back into care facilities that could not be set up to handle them per CDC guidelines. But Sweden has acknowledged that they goofed with their own handling of the elderly before they righted themselves so that is where a lot of their death toll came from. Just like here.

We can also qualify a good part of the US for having a much higher obesity rate than Sweden’s.

But still, while we can use another year of data, etc., it has to be said that Sweden is looking pretty good today. That is complete and total anathema to anyone who still thinks locking down everything but the most essential activities was the right course of action.

Sweden’s economy still went down, but a lot of the down part was dependent on exports to their neighbors who were all in shutdown mode. Today, their economy is mostly open for business as opposed to nearly every other first world country.

 

[Theo520]

…antibody surveys suggest only about 20 per cent of people in Stockholm have been infected, similar to levels in London and New York

Comparing NY and Sweden is embarrassing (for NY). Sweden has a much lower death rate (30% of NY). Not bad if they have the same community spread and didn’t bother to shut down.

Deaths per mil pop
NY: 1691
Sweden: 572

 

[Regular_Atheist]

There’s a particularly revolting segment of the middle class that is very prepared to sacrifice thousands of lives to ensure the survival of their business.

 

[vz71]

Because COVID has the potential to kill a great deal more people.

Potential?
Why not deal with what actually is instead of whatever scary story we can make up?

This far it has proven less deadly than a number of things society deals with regularly that are not considered an emergency.

 

[vz71]

That was reality.

That was not Sweden.
They are dealing with what has presented itself.
And from my point of view, it looks like things are well in hand.

Why should they treat covid different then anything else?

 

[Ridgerunner]

I hate to disagree with you on this one but Sweden appears to have a “survival of the fittest” mentality. We here in the United States and really across the world should have had a better way to deal with the pandemic

Apparently not in New York.

 

[LeafByNiggle]

Thbolt:

Sweden has 572 deaths per million

And how many do they have due to auto accidents…or cancer…or heart disease…or drug use?

I suppose the same proportion as in Norway and Finland. Why would you assume Sweden’s statistics are inflated and not assume the same for every other nation? That fact is that on a side-by-side comparison with other similar nations, Sweden is doing terrible. No way can they be declared a great success.

 

[LeafByNiggle]

If we accept that Sweden so far has experienced 572 Covid-19 deaths per million population, then there are at least five individual US states with higher rates, all of whom practiced the full gamut of lockdowns, social distancing and masking:

NJ 1786
NY 1670
MA 1273
AZ 607
PA 586

These are not comparable, because the NY and NJ experienced their infections much earlier than Sweden and did not have the benefit of the latest medical knowledge that we have now and which Sweden is using to keep their numbers as low as they are (though they are not that low.) Also NY and NJ have much higher population density than Sweden.

 

[Cathoholic]

AuldP . . .

…antibody surveys suggest only about 20 per cent of people in Stockholm have been infected . . .

Is there anything that contributes to immunity in addition to “antibody”?

Yes.

What else contributes?

 

[LeafByNiggle]

AuldP . . .

…antibody surveys suggest only about 20 per cent of people in Stockholm have been infected . . .

So far that is the only measurable characteristic that measures how well Sweden’s policy is doing. If there is something else inherent in the Swedish people that makes them resistant to the virus, that is good, but it is just a lucky happenstance and not the result of Swedish policy, which is what this thread is about.

 

[Cathoholic]

As per Zzyzx_Road . . .

Sweden’s death rate per million . . .

572

New Jersey’s is . . . .

1786

Not LeafByNiggle . . .

“Wow. That is revealing.”

LeafByNiggle making excuses . . .

These are not comparable, because the NY and NJ experienced their infections much earlier . . .

I am surprised a math guy would suggest this Leaf.

If you think “later” is so good, now IS “later” so we should ALSO do away with masks mandates, social distance mandates, etc. in the U.S.

Right?

 

[LeafByNiggle]

As per Zzyzx_Road . . .

Sweden’s death rate per million . . .

572

The population density of New Jersey is 1211 people per square mile. The population density of Sweden is 64 people per square mile. The math says Sweden has 5% of the population density of New Jersey, so Sweden is social distancing already by virtue of the people being so spread out. The experience of an infection is affected by population density in a big way. It is surprising that Sweden is doing as badly as they are, given how spread out they are.

These are not comparable, because the NY and NJ experienced their infections much earlier . . .

I am surprised a math guy would suggest this Leaf.

It is exactly because I am a math guy that I refuse to ignore relevant mathematical details.

 

[Cathoholic]

LeafByNiggle giving you readers irrelevant population density statistics (because it ignores the fact that almost 90% of Swedes are urban dwellers) . . .

The population density of Sweden is 64 people per square mile.

So now it’s the population density’s fault.

Leaf . . .

It is exactly because I am a math guy that I refuse to ignore relevant mathematical details.

Then you need to apply the public health facts to the integral calculus and admit that area under the curve remains the same with these public health measures taken (even though the shape of the curve changes) to “flatten the curve” (which have been draconianly continued despite the health system not being destroyed).

America never signed onto that. It was a bait and switch by leftist politicians (whom I now have even less trust for if that is possible).

Flattening the curve just changes the “when” the infections occur. Not the “if” or the severity.

From here . . .

As Dr. Lisa Maragakis, Senior Director of Infection Prevention at Johns Hopkins Medical School explained, flattening the curve means that “ the same large number of patients arrived at the hospital at a slower rate. [emphasis mine]”