Obama and Romney Hit the Final Stretch PT 2

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Our lights just flickered briefly. I hope Dominion Virginia Power stays on top of the situation here in Fairfax County! If I disappear from the CA Forum, you’ll know I lost my power …
 
GOP Rout In Pennsylvania Absentee Ballot Returns
In 2008 the GOP edged the Democrats by just 2% in absentee returns. As of today the GOP’s lead is 18.8% — a 16.9% bump in a state Obama won by 10% in 2008. Republicans have turned in 55.2% of the absentee ballots to date while the Democrats have returned just 36.4%
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Fighting in blue states is a good sign for Romney

Are Bogus Early Voting Poll the New Bogus Exit Polls?
Remember back in 2004 (how young we all were then), all the exit polls showed Sen. John Kerry defeating President George W. Bush in Ohio and winning the presidency? Those exit polls dispirited Bush supporters and caused so much controversy, because they were consistent and consistently wrong, that news organizations changed how exit polls were done in subsequent elections.
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Are we seeing the same thing play out now in these “early voter” polls?
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I don’t know, but it is worth asking the question when these early voting polls keep skewing the way those exit polls skewed before, favoring Democrats.
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Today, the Democrats are touting a SurveyUSA early voter poll in Ohio, for instance, that claims Obama is winning among early voters by a whopping 62-38. If that number is right, things look bad for Romney to win Ohio and thus the presidency. But is the number right?
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Election Insight says hold the phone, the SurveyUSA number may not be right at all. You’ll need to read their entire post, but this gives the flavor of it.
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The SurveyUSA data suggests that 60.32% of the early vote from those with No Party ID/Independents have voted for Obama. As of today, most polls suggest that that Romney is leading Independents by +8%. Even in Survey USAs poll, they report Independents breaking for Romney by +8%. We can only conclude that early voting polling, at this point, cannot be trusted to provide accurate results. The flaw may lie in the oversampling of Democrats to Republicans and overestimating who has already voted or who will be voting on Election Day.
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With a 6% lead in Registered Democrats over Republicans, there is no doubt Obama is probably winning the early voter turnout. However to get a +8% Independent support for Romney, Obama’s early lead would probably be around 50% to 46% or 47% for Romney. Perhaps a better indication of how the early voting is going, and for whom it is breaking , is to look at the total number of Democrat and Republican Party affiliated voters and infer the total early votes received. Given how early voting turned out in 2008, Romney is in good shape to carry Ohio in 2012.
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The Romney campaign’s take is that Obama is significantly underperforming now compared to 2008, and may also be cannibalizing his strong voters in early voting, leaving him weak when the final days comes. If they’re right, then these early vote numbers are actually bad news that the Obama campaign is spinning. The bottom line on this is obvious: Vote. Early if you can, on Election Day if you can’t. Don’t let what may be inaccurate and even possibly bogus polling dissuade you.
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rlg94086 said:
Well, Rich, I still believe in miracles, so I will pray that she heals completely. Our Lady of Ransom, pray for us.
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I believe that, at times, God can heal.

Rich, I will pray for the intercession of Augustine Tolton.

God Bless you and your wife Rich.
 
Tampa_Dave said:
Our lights just flickered briefly. I hope Dominion Virginia Power stays on top of the situation here in Fairfax County! If I disappear from the CA Forum, you’ll know I lost my power …
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When I lived in Richmond- not near you I know- we ALWAYS lost power.

Winds get above 10 mpr. and BOOM, no power. I don’t know what the problem was.
 
ringil said:
When I lived in Richmond- not near you I know- we ALWAYS lost power.

Winds get above 10 mpr. and BOOM, no power. I don’t know what the problem was.
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Dominion Virginia Power is historically very responsible. During our great blizzard in the DC area a few years ago, we never lost power. Some Maryland residents with PEPCO and BGE lost power for nearly two weeks, as I recall. I am praying we have similar luck this time.
 
Tampa_Dave said:
Dominion Virginia Power is historically very responsible. During our great blizzard in the DC area a few years ago, we never lost power. Some Maryland residents with PEPCO and BGE lost power for nearly two weeks, as I recall. I am praying we have similar luck this time.
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Well, I wouldn’t be surprised if NOVA has superior services to the rest of the state.

NOVA is really an entity in and of itself. Not necessarily in a bad way. It just is culturally different.

Some folks up there barely have southern accents!
 
New York Times liberal Nate Silver
“Romney, clearly, could still win,” Silver told politico today
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Colorado poll: Romney 48% – Obama 47%
A new poll released Monday indicates Mitt Romney has a narrow edge over President Barack Obama in Colorado, a little more than a week before Election Day.
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Forty-eight percent of likely voters in the state back the GOP presidential nominee, compared to 47% who support the president, according to the American Research Group survey.
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The one-point margin is well within the sampling error, leaving the two candidates statistically tied in the crucial battleground, a state Obama turned from red to blue in 2008.
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Four percent, meanwhile, say they are undecided, while one percent say they prefer another candidate. Among independents, the survey shows Obama ahead of Romney, 50% to 42%.
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ringil said:
Well, I wouldn’t be surprised if NOVA has superior services to the rest of the state.

NOVA is really an entity in and of itself. Not necessarily in a bad way. It just is culturally different.

Some folks up there barely have southern accents!
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“Culturally different” is an understatement! NOVA is not like the rest of Virginia, believe me. Northern Virginia should evolve into a separate state. NOVA natives do not speak with a classical Southern drawl. We don’t consume Southern foods or culture. Nothing is Southern in Northern Virginia, particularly the people. As an example, Fairfax High School is about 40% Caucasian, 27% Asian, and 30% students of other ethnic origins. The closest strip mall is 95% Korean-owned or occupied. Now, the blend of peoples can be a blessing at times, notably when its time to select a restaurant for evening dining. I also have numerous friends of varied backgrounds, (most of my friends are black Catholic lawyers from DC). Many people are transients, like myself, though I’ve been here since 1988. When asked where I’m from, I always tell people ‘Ohio’ or ‘Florida’ (where I spent my college time and a few years thereafter). We do have good schools, I must say. However, our road rage and traffic in NOVA is unbelievable. Overall, I am not fond of Northern Virginia and I look forward to my retirement in Florida. Otherwise, the Commonwealth of Virginia is one of the finest and beautiful states in the Union. I just don’t live there!
 
Luigi_Daniele said:
Prayers offered Rich.

Our Lady of Lourdes pray for her (and us).
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I thank you and all the others as well who are offering prayers for my wife’s recovery from what is on the face of it, something one does not recover from. 🙂
 
Tampa_Dave said:
Our lights just flickered briefly. I hope Dominion Virginia Power stays on top of the situation here in Fairfax County! If I disappear from the CA Forum, you’ll know I lost my power …
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With you down here in Prince William County, Fairfax’s dirty little orphan step-brother.
 
Rich_Olszewski said:
I thank you and all the others as well who are offering prayers for my wife’s recovery from what is on the face of it, something one does not recover from. 🙂
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Then pray that she has her spiritual house in order so that when her body fails her, her soul will finally be at peace.
 
Tampa_Dave said:
“Culturally different” is an understatement! NOVA is not like the rest of Virginia, believe me. Northern Virginia should evolve into a separate state. NOVA natives do not speak with a classical Southern drawl. We don’t consume Southern foods or culture. Nothing is Southern in Northern Virginia, particularly the people. As an example, Fairfax High School is about 40% Caucasian, 27% Asian, and 30% students of other ethnic origins. The closest strip mall is 95% Korean-owned or occupied. Now, the blend of peoples can be a blessing at times, notably when its time to select a restaurant for evening dining. I also have numerous friends of varied backgrounds, (most of my friends are black Catholic lawyers from DC). Many people are transients, like myself, though I’ve been here since 1988. When asked where I’m from, I always tell people ‘Ohio’ or ‘Florida’ (where I spent my college time and a few years thereafter). We do have good schools, I must say. However, our road rage and traffic in NOVA is unbelievable. Overall, I am not fond of Northern Virginia and I look forward to my retirement in Florida. Otherwise, the Commonwealth of Virginia is one of the finest and beautiful states in the Union. I just don’t live there!
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You know, if someone didn’t know better they would think we are related. We both live in Northern VA and I have a second home just south of Tampa, in Apollo Beach.
 
Scott_Lafrance said:
With you down here in Prince William County, Fairfax’s dirty little orphan step-brother.
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Oh, you really are our dirty little orphan step-brother! 🙂 My daughters and their classmates always made a thing about living in the “703” (area code). My wife likes McKay’s Used Bookstore and I like the Barnes & Noble right off Rte. 66, both in Manassas. PW County has many nice areas within it; we just don’t get down there often.
 
Tampa_Dave said:
Oh, you really are our dirty little orphan step-brother! 🙂 My daughters and their classmates always made a thing about living in the “703” (area code). My wife likes McKay’s Used Bookstore and I like the Barnes & Noble right off Rte. 66, both in Manassas. PW County has many nice areas within it; we just don’t get down there often.
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It does? I’ve been living here 12 years. I wish someone would tell me where they are. :o
 
Scott_Lafrance said:
I have a Puerto Rican wife, which is almost the same. 😃
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Too funny! An old friend of mine has a Puerto Rican wife who is fluent in six languages. She was in an international choir in her youth, so she picked up several languages. She is particularly fluent in German, French, English and Spanish (of course). Beautiful and talented woman with five great kids.
 
Tampa_Dave said:
My daughters and their classmates always made a thing about living in the “703” (area code).
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Is that area code supposed to be special? I know that a Manhattan or D.C. or L.A. area code is desirable. Mine is 646, lower Manhattan, and has a greater cachet than 718, Brooklyn 😦 where my kids and wife live.

Glad I didn’t get a flyover land 501 (Little Rock) area code! 😃
 
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