Petroleum and the future of civilization

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(1) Population reduction through comprehensive education and voluntary family size limitation.

(2) Development of alternative energies that don’t depend on petroleum infrastructure. In particular, develop nuclear generation capacity.

(3) Relocalize to eliminate suburban expansion and long commutes.

(4) Develop high speed electric inter-city rail, and extensive local light rail networks.

(5) Revamp agriculture to be organic and sustainable for the time when petro-chemical fertilizer is no longer available.

Failing these five, we can count on famine, epidemics, water shortages, mass migrations, and resource wars.

Take your pick.

Petrus
You know it seems to me since the Church is suppose to repsond to the times in which it live (sign of the times) it could easily addopt a postion of encuraging smaller families.

BTW the ASPO Houston conference’s DVD are for sale, just got mine and so far it very informative. There’s 12 DVD’s; On the righthand side of the following link are the list of speakers at this conference.
aspousa.org/proceedings/houston/
 
You know it seems to me since the Church is suppose to repsond to the times in which it live (sign of the times) it could easily addopt a postion of encuraging smaller families.

aspousa.org/proceedings/houston/
Nope.

Guess again.

Read “Fatima and the Great Chastisement” by John Vennari. Call (905) 871-6292 to request a copy.

I’ll see if I can find it on-line. It’s in the January 2008 issue of “Catholic Family News”. It deals with the punishment for denial of the immutability of objective truth; punishment for teaching a new doctrine contrary to and different from that which the Chruch always held.

We must:
  1. Accept the immutibility of objective truth;
  2. Accept the fact that the Catholic truth does not change with the times;
  3. Pray for those infected with modern errors and publicly resist them;
  4. Live the Fatima Message of daily Rsary, Five First Saturdays of Reparation, offering daily duty to God as an act of sacrifice.
Read Pope St. Pius X’s landmark documents against Modernism issued on 4 July 1907 - and “Pascendi”, the Encyclical Against Modernism, issued on 8 Sept 1907.

Read also, the encyclical letter of Pope Pius XI “Divini Redemptoris” … - Atheistic Communism.
 
Sorry for the delay, but I finally got the link to Catholic Family News.

Very interesting Web site with a lot of very interesting Catholic news stuff:

And also the link to the encyclical on the syllabus on errors of modernism. Very important especially today when in almost every secular field of endeavor folks seem to be “making business decisions” to not keep their word. Walking away from every committment ranging from marriages to mortgages. Anyway, worth a read.

And it directly relates to this business of petroleum … and relying on bogus forecasts and doing business with unstable “governments” [like the members of OPEC], and thinking about forcing “educating” ] folks to a one-child per family policy.

papalencyclicals.net/Pius10/p10lamen.htm

cfnews.org/cfn.htm

Anyway, they’re worth a click or two.
 
You know it seems to me since the Church is suppose to repsond to the times in which it live (sign of the times) it could easily addopt a postion of encuraging smaller families.
Doug50, you’re quite right. The mandate incorporated into the Genesis story, to “go forth and multiply” was enunciated at a time when the Hebrew people were struggling even to survive, as were other cultures at the time. Keith Thomas notes in Man and the Natural World that it wasn’t even until the eighteenth century that humans managed to control some of the vectors of famine, disease, and natural disaster that had always threatened human survival.

When these vectors were brought under some degree of control, the human population began to grow rapidly, and skyrocketed with the commercial exploitation of oil after 1859. It may be time to revisit that old maxim, as obviously the planet cannot support infinite human population growth.
 
Al, since you like to research your own stuff but not even look at mine, google catechism sings of the times
 
Al, since you like to research your own stuff but not even look at mine, google catechism sings of the times
Doug, can you give a URL, please? I’m coming up empty-handed, or empty-screened
 
Doug, can you give a URL, please? I’m coming up empty-handed, or empty-screened
vatican.va/archive/catechism/p3s1c1a6.htm

ARTICLE 6
MORAL CONSCIENCE

1776 "Deep within his conscience man discovers a law which he has not laid upon himself but which he must obey. Its voice, ever calling him to love and to do what is good and to avoid evil, sounds in his heart at the right moment. . . . For man has in his heart a law inscribed by God. . . . His conscience is man’s most secret core and his sanctuary. There he is alone with God whose voice echoes in his depths."47

III. TO CHOOSE IN ACCORD WITH CONSCIENCE

1786 Faced with a moral choice, conscience can make either a right judgment in accordance with reason and the divine law or, on the contrary, an erroneous judgment that departs from them.

1787 Man is sometimes confronted by situations that make moral judgments less assured and decision difficult. But he must always seriously seek what is right and good and discern the will of God expressed in divine law.

**1788 To this purpose, man strives to interpret the data of experience and the signs of the times assisted by the virtue of prudence, by the advice of competent people, and by the help of the Holy Spirit and his gifts. **
 
Not yet.

Still working on how you have attempted to make the Catholic Catechism show that one can use it to justify immorality.

However, I have listened to, watched and/or participated in many roundtables. Listened to many eminent experts. Only to learn that they were … wrong.

There is actually a group, the name of which is the “Man Will Never Fly Society”. They have a dinner meeting on the day before the anniversary of the Wright Brothers’ first flight. I don’t know if they mostly drink or mostly eat. ]

Not to mention the list of eminent worthies who were emphatic up to the very day, that the atomic bomb would never work.

To recap my thinking on this issue … you have stated that without petroleum, civilization will collapse. To prevent that collapse, we must, without delay, reduce the population … and do that with education which is a code word for birth control, abortion and euthanasia ] which you state is permitted by the Catechism of the Catholic Church. The jist of your posts has been that there are no subsititues for petroleum … Neither coal, nor methanol, nor natural gas, nor nuclear may be substituted in any combination or in any reprocessing or chemical modifications. There are no other liquid fuels possible. And our knowledge of the existing geology is perfect at this time. And the abiotic, R-U theory, Thomas Gold theory of continuously generated petroleum is false and has no validity.

And basically we’re doomed because all the existing petroleum will run out in about seven years. Or maybe 20 years.

Which is what the experts have been saying for at least 70 years.

And no new developments are possible.

And I have pointed out that there have been NUMEROUS new developments in numerous fields of science … from Hall to Tesla … and that there will be more of them, unless of course, we have aborted some future inventor of a new energy source. Or frozen him/her in a gulag.
 
No wait … I clicked on the Vatican document and read the part you omitted:

So I guess you all used selective quotations to try to justify immoral actions.

You’re going to have to quit doing that.]

III. TO CHOOSE IN ACCORD WITH CONSCIENCE

1786 Faced with a moral choice, conscience can make either a right judgment in accordance with reason and the divine law or, on the contrary, an erroneous judgment that departs from them.

1787 Man is sometimes confronted by situations that make moral judgments less assured and decision difficult. But he must always seriously seek what is right and good and discern the will of God expressed in divine law.

1788 To this purpose, man strives to interpret the data of experience and the signs of the times assisted by the virtue of prudence, by the advice of competent people, and by the help of the Holy Spirit and his gifts.

1789 Some rules apply in every case:
  • One may never do evil so that good may result from it;
  • the Golden Rule: "Whatever you wish that men would do to you, do so to them."56
  • charity always proceeds by way of respect for one’s neighbor and his conscience: "Thus sinning against your brethren and wounding their conscience . . . you sin against Christ."57 Therefore "it is right not to . . . do anything that makes your brother stumble."58
IV. ERRONEOUS JUDGMENT

1790 A human being must always obey the certain judgment of his conscience. If he were deliberately to act against it, he would condemn himself. Yet it can happen that moral conscience remains in ignorance and makes erroneous judgments about acts to be performed or already committed.

1791 This ignorance can often be imputed to personal responsibility. This is the case when a man "takes little trouble to find out what is true and good, or when conscience is by degrees almost blinded through the habit of committing sin."59 In such cases, the person is culpable for the evil he commits.

1792 Ignorance of Christ and his Gospel, bad example given by others, enslavement to one’s passions, assertion of a mistaken notion of autonomy of conscience, rejection of the Church’s authority and her teaching, lack of conversion and of charity: these can be at the source of errors of judgment in moral conduct.

1793 If - on the contrary - the ignorance is invincible, or the moral subject is not responsible for his erroneous judgment, the evil committed by the person cannot be imputed to him. It remains no less an evil, a privation, a disorder. One must therefore work to correct the errors of moral conscience.

1794 A good and pure conscience is enlightened by true faith, for charity proceeds at the same time "from a pure heart and a good conscience and sincere faith."60

The more a correct conscience prevails, the more do persons and groups turn aside from blind choice and try to be guided by objective standards of moral conduct.61
IN BRIEF

1795 “Conscience is man’s most secret core, and his sanctuary. There he is alone with God whose voice echoes in his depths” (GS 16).

1796 Conscience is a judgment of reason by which the human person recognizes the moral quality of a concrete act.

1797 For the man who has committed evil, the verdict of his conscience remains a pledge of conversion and of hope.

1798 A well-formed conscience is upright and truthful. It formulates its judgments according to reason, in conformity with the true good willed by the wisdom of the Creator. Everyone must avail himself of the means to form his conscience.

1799 Faced with a moral choice, conscience can make either a right judgment in accordance with reason and the divine law or, on the contrary, an erroneous judgment that departs from them.

1800 A human being must always obey the certain judgment of his conscience.

1801 Conscience can remain in ignorance or make erroneous judgments. Such ignorance and errors are not always free of guilt.

1802 The Word of God is a light for our path. We must assimilate it in faith and prayer and put it into practice. This is how moral conscience is formed.
 
Not yet.

Still working on how you have attempted to make the Catholic Catechism show that one can use it to justify immorality.

However, I have listened to, watched and/or participated in many roundtables. Listened to many eminent experts. Only to learn that they were … wrong.

There is actually a group, the name of which is the “Man Will Never Fly Society”. They have a dinner meeting on the day before the anniversary of the Wright Brothers’ first flight. I don’t know if they mostly drink or mostly eat. ]

Not to mention the list of eminent worthies who were emphatic up to the very day, that the atomic bomb would never work.

To recap my thinking on this issue … you have stated that without petroleum, civilization will collapse. To prevent that collapse, we must, without delay, reduce the population … and do that with education which is a code word for birth control, abortion and euthanasia ] which you state is permitted by the Catechism of the Catholic Church. The jist of your posts has been that there are no subsititues for petroleum … Neither coal, nor methanol, nor natural gas, nor nuclear may be substituted in any combination or in any reprocessing or chemical modifications. There are no other liquid fuels possible. And our knowledge of the existing geology is perfect at this time. And the abiotic, R-U theory, Thomas Gold theory of continuously generated petroleum is false and has no validity.

And basically we’re doomed because all the existing petroleum will run out in about seven years. Or maybe 20 years.

Which is what the experts have been saying for at least 70 years.

And no new developments are possible.

And I have pointed out that there have been NUMEROUS new developments in numerous fields of science … from Hall to Tesla … and that there will be more of them, unless of course, we have aborted some future inventor of a new energy source. Or frozen him/her in a gulag.
You’re amazing, AL. Just how many imagined dragons do you slay every day? I said nothing of “To prevent that collapse, we must, without delay, reduce the population” and then with this you dreamed up I’m covertly pushing for “birth control, abortion and euthanasia”? You are a crank.

But as far as that argument goes there is nothing wrong with a couple choosing to limit the size of their family. What matters is how they choose byzantinecommunications.com/adamhoward/homework/highschool/birthcontrol.html
According to Catholic social teaching, and Christian values, of all the forms of birth control, there is only one which is considered right and moral. All of the rest are artificial, and according to Catholic beliefs, are not morally acceptable. The only acceptable one is completely natural. It is called Natural Family Planning, or NFP for short. This method, completely natural, is the only one endorsed by the Roman Catholic Church. According to Catholic doctrine, the artificial means of birth are immoral, and these means must and ought to be replaced by the moral type, Natural Family Planning.
 
You’re amazing, AL. Just how many imagined dragons do you slay every day? I said nothing of “To prevent that collapse, we must, without delay, reduce the population” and then with this you dreamed up I’m covertly pushing for “birth control, abortion and euthanasia”? You are a crank.
Doug50, I suspect the reason is that confronting the limits to the material growth of human civilization on earth is deeply frightening. It’s frightening to think that we won’t be able to have a human population growing comfortably to 10 billion, or 100 billion, or one trillion. A (Catholic) physicist colleague and I were presenting a paper on the end of affordable oil in June, 2006, and we were screamed at as baby killers by conservative Catholics because we proposed two-child families. We had said nothing about artificial birth control, much less abortion or infanticide. People hear the words “limiting population growth” and they go hysterical, assuming that anyone who contemplates the biological limitations of the planet is a potential serial killer. It’s completely irrational – that’s why I don’t even try to psychoanalyze them.
 
Doug50, I suspect the reason is that confronting the limits to the material growth of human civilization on earth is deeply frightening. It’s frightening to think that we won’t be able to have a human population growing comfortably to 10 billion, or 100 billion, or one trillion. A (Catholic) physicist colleague and I were presenting a paper on the end of affordable oil in June, 2006, and we were screamed at as baby killers by conservative Catholics because we proposed two-child families. We had said nothing about artificial birth control, much less abortion or infanticide. People hear the words “limiting population growth” and they go hysterical, assuming that anyone who contemplates the biological limitations of the planet is a potential serial killer. It’s completely irrational – that’s why I don’t even try to psychoanalyze them.
Yeah, I know some Catholics like this too. It’s sad really. I’ve read a lot of philosophical and theological stuff. One of my favorite programs is EWTN’s Finding God Through Faith and Reason with Fr. Spitzer But I figure very few Catholics even try to learn the reasoning Fr Spitzer is trying to convey. It’s sad, really, since this appolgist’s shows how theists can knock down any atheist’s arguments using the very same phyisics.

But more so I think it’s sad that such Catholics think it makes them more pius, and more devout to hold to erroneous beliefs. As I did earlier in the thread, drawing on Saint Augustine, such beliefs only feeds fuel to the secularists and atheists such as Richard Dawkins who can then point a finger at the irrationality and equate that to all theists.
 
But more so I think it’s sad that such Catholics think it makes them more pius, and more devout to hold to erroneous beliefs. As I did earlier in the thread, drawing on Saint Augustine, such beliefs only feeds fuel to the secularists and atheists such as Richard Dawkins who can then point a finger at the irrationality and equate that to all theists.
Doug, when I participate in scientific conferences I usually get a surprised reaction when people find out that not only am I a theologian, but I’m Roman Catholic as well. Some remain derisive of our faith; others are supportive; still others express amazement that a Catholic can actually entertain post-medieval thoughts about science and theology.
 
Doug, when I participate in scientific conferences I usually get a surprised reaction when people find out that not only am I a theologian, but I’m Roman Catholic as well. Some remain derisive of our faith; others are supportive; still others express amazement that a Catholic can actually entertain post-medieval thoughts about science and theology.
Been there done that. I ususally like to point them in the direction of Catholic scientists such as…oh…Louis Pasteur, Fr Georges LeMaitre , Ken Miller…I wonder if Al will open these links?

Just why won’t you open my links, Al? I mean the Vatican doc was obvious but the others? Why not? Are they the work of the devil? Why?
 
Sorry for not getting back to you sooner.

I was partly laughing, partly crying and partly choking when my coffee went down the wrong pipe.

Look … the simple fact … and we all know it … is that the Planet Earth ran out of petroleum in the year 2003.

Gone.

Finished.

Game Over.

And we only have enough left for … ummm … 20 years. Same as always.

Someone mentioned listening to some expert from Aramco. [That was when my coffee went down the wrong pipe.]

And then … the bit about Saudi Arabia not setting oil prices … because they have no vested interest in doing so … Come on, guys. Saudi Arabia has only one agenda … financing its madrassas … thousands and thousands of Islamic schools … all over the world. Jihad by selective use of the tap to turn oil on and off and selective use of oil money to “make friends and influence people”.

[By the way, did you know that some MidEast folks are buying Canadian oil companies? Nothing like blocking the competition. ]

Then there was the part about “voluntary population reduction”. And anyone who does not volunteer will have his paycheck garnished.

In the paper this morning someone was complaining about his commute … no mass transit … no sidewalks to get to the sandwich shoppe at lunchtime … and the writer’s answer is HIGH SPEED RAIL … Somehow, I don’t think high speed rail will work for commuting or for getting to the Subway [sandwich shoppe]. The human factors people won’t be able to figure out a way to accommodate standees when a 200mph train has to stop suddenly every few seconds at the next station.

OH, BY THE WAY … apparently the latest member (ex officio) of OPEC is … [drum roll, please] … Cuba … no joke … they are getting something more than $1 Billion per year from oil revenues … no, really … they are working with Les Chinois to drill off the coast of Florida. 60 miles off the coast of Florida, which is a lot closer than U.S. oil companies are drilling. [Can you say … Cayman Islands, baby! … because I’m sure that’s where Raul and Fidel will keep the money for safety. ]

Oh, and the latest estimates of oil reserves have now rearranged the list of oil-rich countries … the new #2 country ranked by size of oil reserves is … 'nuther drum roll, please ] … Canada.

Ya know, … first Cuba, now Canada … the world is just upside down …

… The best golfer is a black guy; the best rapper is a white guy; the Swiss have won the America’s Cup; the tallest basketballer is Chinese; the French have accused the Americans of being arrogant; and the Germans don’t want to fight.

What next???

Yeah, yeah, yeah … I know it’s a few years old … so, while checking the upside down thing for accuracy, I found this:

Q: I heard that cutting down on fat and drinking a little red wine is good for you. Is this true?

A: The Japanese eat very little fat and suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. On the other hand, the French eat a lot of fat and also suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. The Chinese drink very little red wine and suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. The Italians drink excessive amounts of red wine and also suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. Conclusion: Eat & drink what you like . . . it’s speaking English that kills you.

OH, and Fusion: NO! NOT the food thingee. ] The U.S. gave up on fusion decades ago … in the 1980’s. It was boring. Besides there was wasteful duplication with the Europeans. But now there is no competition and after decades of committee meetings, they decided … where to have lunch: France. And that’s about it. No progress. But they do dine well.
 
If your going to keep referring to the Club of Rome, Al, you really need to get the facts right:

The ‘Club of Rome’ Report: The Limits to Growth

Because of its importance in many people’s perception of resource limits, it may be useful here to also discuss the Club of Rome report: The Limits to Growth. 4

This report was a key contributor to the 1970s understanding that resources are finite; that man’s use of these could reach limits within comprehensible time-spans; and that the complex interactions between resources, population, capital and pollution require system thinking if a proper understanding is to result.

Prior to the report, oil use had been growing at around 7% per year, and the calculations of the Club of Rome correctly showed that if this sort of growth rate were to continue, a resource base of almost any feasible size would be exhausted in a surprisingly short time-span.

The authors gave a table (p 58) listing the then-current proved reserves of various minerals, including oil at 455 billion barrels. The authors recognised that the figure they gave for each mineral represented only the resource discovered so far, and suggested that a larger amount, up to perhaps six times as much, might represent the total useful quantity of that mineral. (In oil’s case, co-incidentally, six times 455 Gb is roughly correct for conventional oil’s original endowment, i.e., ‘ultimate’).

But the authors made no use of these then-current resource numbers in their modelling. Instead they assumed, in their ‘standard computer run’, that all non-renewable resources, lumped together, had a resource base in 1970 of 250 years’ supply at 1970 rates, (p 126). The standard run then showed that society would collapse in less than a hundred years due to resource depletion, itself driven by:
  • population growth,
  • compounded by an increasing per capita use of non-renewable resources,
  • and further compounded by the assumption that the material capital to extract the
    resources increases as the resources themselves are depleted.
    Finally a point is reached where too little capital is left for future growth, as investment cannot keep up with depreciation (p 125), and the industrial base collapses, taking food and service production with it. If the authors doubled the resource base (p 127), society still collapsed, now primarily due to pollution limits, but also to severe restraints on resource availability.
Interestingly, in the sequel: Beyond the Limits,5 estimates are given for oil’s ultimately recoverable reserves (as opposed to then-current proved reserves given in the previous book), with an acceptable range of 1800 - 2500 billion barrels (Table 3-2, p 71). But the authors appeared unaware of the dramatic implication of applying a logistic curve to these data (i.e., of applying the Hubbert ‘decline from the mid-point’ argument).

Overall, to-day, many people’s perceptions of the Club of Rome’s report (unaware of the details of its simulations) are that: since no major resource shortages have appeared, the report was fundamentally flawed; forecasting resource limits is a fool’s game; and that man’s ingenuity and skill will always overcome the outdated Malthusian nightmares of resource depletion. The report would seem to be due for re-consideration.

Conclusions

Nearly all the global oil forecasts made by reputable organisations in the 1970s combined ‘mid-point peaking’ arguments with realistic estimates for the World’s original endowment of conventional oil. Hence these forecasts gave, in quantitative terms, exactly the same warnings of the ‘wolf’s’ approach as given by to-day’s oil depletion calculations; namely, that global production of conventional oil will peak, and then inexorably decline, when roughly 1000 Gb have been produced.

Taken together, past and present oil forecasts based on estimates of the recoverable oil resource base thus constitute a consistent 30-year series of warnings of oil supply difficulties that it would be wise to heed.
 
BTW, Al, you didn’t answer my question. Why do you refuse to open the links I give you?

Here’s Dr Sadad al-Huseini again, just retired as head of production and exploration of Saudi ARAMCO. He knows OPEC as well as anybody.

Listen to the interview with Sadad al-Huseini.
davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=67
 
BTW, Al, you didn’t answer my question. Why do you refuse to open the links I give you?
  1. The answer to your question … is found in Post #451.
Please read again Post #451.
  1. Let us get back together again in the year 2028 after all the petroleum has run out. And when the petroleum reserves will alarmingly be projected to only last until the year 2068.
  2. Please also read again the Catechism of the Catholic Church , only except this time please also read the parts that you find inconvenient to your point-of-view.
  3. I checked your link labeled “Club of Rome Report” … and it’s NOT the Club of Rome Report. It’s some guy quoting Paul Ehrlich (the king of the Malthusians) [and some others] attempting to explain away the forecasts published that deliberately set up the scarcity agenda. And that failed. Miserably.
Your score card is not looking too good at this point.

And finally, Sorry, but I’m not taking the word of folks who get their money from Saudi Arabia. [Aramco … my goodness … :banghead: ]

Folks should buy and read in its entirely Robert Zubrin’s book, “Energy Victory”. It is excellent.

amazon.com/Energy-Victory-Winning-Terror-Breaking/dp/1591025915/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1202329519&sr=8-1

And folks should also take another perusal at the paper by on abiogenic oil. The ideas seem to be working for Russia.

And take a look at the tectonic plate movement in the vicinity of Saudi Arabia … And at the similar plate movements in the vicinities of other major oil discoveries. Shocking.
 
I got timed out while editing my previous post.

Here is the link to Penner’s paper on abiogenic oil:

ABIOGENIC OR BIOGENIC PETROLEUM* by S.S. Penner* Center for Energy Research
… of Research Needs for Shale-Oil Recovery by FERWG-III" by S. S. Penner, … Committee on Advanced Fossil Energy Technologies, S. S. Penner, Chairman, Energy …
ddponline.org/ppt/06penner.pdf

The Saudi’s and their neighbors are buying up Airbus’s production of the A380 super jumbo airliners. Obviously they don’t think they are going to run out of oil any time soon.

Looks like you’re zero for whatever, so far, Doug.
 
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