Poll: Obama leads grow in Ohio, Fla

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Luigi_Daniele said:
Hope the recent trend continues:D
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I did my part this morning to help it along. I have a feeling Romney is going to win Iowa because of a high evangelical turnout and low college turnout.

There is a big push among evangelicals to oust the Surpreme Court judge that is up for retention this year and they reliably vote Republican. Also the college students who tend to vote Dem don’t seem too interested in the election.
 
He_Man said:
I don’t disagree with that, but a swing to the right in recent months I have not seen. The base will turn out against Obama, if not for Romney. He needs the independents, not just the Tea Party.
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I think many Republicans are voting against Obama, versus for Romney. I’m doing both. I like Romney, but I would vote for Mickey Mouse over the present occupant of the White House.
 
From the article:
“This criticism of the polls is craziness. I actually did some research on this today, which is more than you’ve done,” he snapped at Gallagher.
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Ouch,

John
 
Marie5890 said:
Fox New’s Chris Wallace on the controversy with polling…

mediaite.com/tv/chris-wallace-snaps-at-right-wing-host-criticizing-polls-that-show-romney-in-trouble-is-craziness/
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Al Gore was winning in September 16 2000 according to the polls

The Newsweek Poll: Bush Makes No Inroads
Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore leads Republican rival George W. Bush by twelve points, according to a new Newsweek poll conducted Sept. 14 and 15. Among registered voters, Gore holds a 50 percent to 38 percent advantage, statistically unchanged from his 47-to-39 percent edge in last week’s poll
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iun.edu/~mathiho/mathpol/fall00/newsweek-poll.h

To proclaim somebody is winning according to the polls now is ridiclous and Chris Wallace show know better as a news presenter he should know the historical record of polls better than most people

Rasmussen is showing Romney and Obama with in the margin of error because it is using a mix of 2004 and 2008 turn out. Most if not all of the others are using a 2008 turn out model when approval rating among key 2008 demographics thst won the Obama election is way down in swing states, like with youth and Jewish vote. If a poll, like NBC is claming the turn out will be higher in 2012 than it was in 2012 that has to be looked at sceptically but there is no evidence to suggest that is the registering advantage in Ohio. Democrat registration is down from what it was in 2008 in Ohio
 
_Abyssinia said:
Obama is winning! Like Al Gore was winning in September 16 2000 according to the polls

The Newsweek Poll: Bush Makes No Inroads

iun.edu/~mathiho/mathpol/fall00/newsweek-poll.h

Rasmussen is showing Romney and Obama with in the margin of error because it is using a mix of 2004 and 2008 turn out. Most if not all of the others are using a 2008 turn out model when approval rating among key 2008 demographics thst won the Obama election is way down in swing states, like with youth and Jewish vote
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That Newsweek poll used registered voters over likely voters? I wonder why?
 
_Abyssinia said:
Obama is winning! Like Al Gore was winning in September 16 2000 according to the polls

The Newsweek Poll: Bush Makes No Inroads

iun.edu/~mathiho/mathpol/fall00/newsweek-poll.h

Rasmussen is showing Romney and Obama with in the margin of error because it is using a mix of 2004 and 2008 turn out. Most if not all of the others are using a 2008 turn out model when approval rating among key 2008 demographics thst won the Obama election is way down in swing states, like with youth and Jewish vote
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And I think that the turnout will be closer to 2004 than 2008.
 
Is there any data out there that suggests how many people will have already voted prior to Nov 6th?

How will that mess up the pollsters’ exit polls?
 
Marie5890 said:
That Newsweek poll used registered voters over likely voters? I wonder why?
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The BBC Washington correspondent Paul Reynolds says Mr Gore currently has the edge in the campaign, emerging as his own man and finally gaining some credit for the US economic boom.
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The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows Mr Gore receiving 49% support among likely voters, while Mr Bush receives 42%.
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The Gallup organisation says the gap is within the poll’s margin of error, “suggesting that the presidential race remains very close”.
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The average results for the past week show Mr Gore leading Mr Bush by 47% to 43%.
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But among women voters, Mr Gore has an even bigger lead over Mr Bush.
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Gore’s standing in the polls looks very similar to Obama’s standing in the polls now and look how it turned out for Gore
 
_Abyssinia said:
Gore’s standing in the polls looks very similar to Obama’s standing in the polls now, and look how it turned out for Gore
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They actually look even better for Gore than for Obama, TBH.

Show of hands, please:

A fresh, unknown Obama won FL and OH by only 2% or so. I believe VA and NC were similar. This was against the (co) worst Rep candidate in years. (Timidly pro-life. Almost non existant tax cut proposal. Uncomfortable with the Bush tax cuts)

Who thinks that an Obama who now has a dismal record will do better against a real conservative?

Me, either.
 
Luigi_Daniele said:
They actually look even better for Gore than for Obama, TBH.

Show of hands, please:

A fresh, unknown Obama won FL and OH by only 2% or so. I believe VA and NC were similar. This was against the (co) worst Rep candidate in years. (Timidly pro-life. Almost non existant tax cut proposal. Uncomfortable with the Bush tax cuts)

Who thinks that an Obama who now has a dismal record will do better against a real conservative?

Me, either.
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Where is there a real conservative in the race?
 
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