B
Biblepoe
Guest
Make that 35 people. At 50 people, the probability of at least one of them being gay if 2% of the population is gay is 64%. The probability that a typical American knows someone who is gay is 99.9995% (see below).That means that if you know 50 people, at least one of them is likely to be gay. Most people know quite a lot more than 50 people. My husband has more than that counting one side of his family.
Mathematical explanation:
If the probability of someone being gay is 2% (or 0.02), the probability of that person not being gay is the complement 0.98 (1 - 0.02 = 0.98). The probability of none of N number of people being gay is then the probability of an individual not being gay to the Nth power (in this case, the probability of none of 35 people being gay is 0.98^35 = 0.49, or 49%). The probability of at least one of those individuals being gay is the complement of that (1 - 0.49 = 0.51, or 51%).
According to the New York Times, the average American knows about 600 people. The probability that none of them are gay is 0.98^600 = .000005, or 0.0005%. In other words, even if only 2% of the population is gay, there is a 99.9995% chance that you know someone who is gay.
These numbers are based on the assumption that only 2% of the population is gay, but many studies have found the percentages to greatly vary based on research methodology with 2% being on the lower end of the results. Plus, these numbers don’t always include those who are somewhere in between gay and straight.
So, it is safe to assume that you know someone who is gay whether you know that they are gay or not. Your children know gay people. That fact that some of them are going to get married, and that this fact would get reflected in everyday media is hardly surprising.
Not to be a math prude, but I thought I should emphasize the point that everyone knows someone who is gay, whether they know that they know a gay person or not.