Given how things are going, and that Cain and Perry are probably on their way out, it seems to be shaping up as a race between Romney and Gingrich.
Perry is on the way out. His debate performances killed it. The rest of that is unlikely, though.
Cain’s not going anywhere thanks to the overreach on this scandal. Two of accusers went public and in less than a week half-hearted scrutiny has destroyed all credibility on their claims, which only drastically reinforces the “establishment is out to lynch Cain” narrative.
Meanwhile Newt’s caught in the flip-side of the equation - he’s moving forward by benefiting from a lack of scrutiny. Yes, he’s the smartest guy in the room, but in the end, he can’t go toe-to-toe with Mitt Romney in the primary because he’s an also-ran to Romney with the establishment crowd, Ron Paul’s people aren’t going to support him, and the non-Romney bandwagon will spit him back out because of his unfaithfulness to conservative interests between his exit from congress and his presidential run. Making an ad with Nancy Pelosi to help legitimize the cap-and-tax movement was a huge mistake. Taking an easy $300,000 took from infamous GSE’s Fannie and Freddy for “advisement” looks bad too, and then there is the unfunded Medicare Part D expansion that people always criticize Bush for that Newt endorsed.
And that’s not starting with the “baggage” Newt carries strung around his neck like an albatross.
Either could do well against Obama.
Newt could mop the floor with Obama in debates, but Obama’s paid advertising and partisan media support would crucify Newt in the majority of air-time where he’s not allowed to defend himself. All Obama has to do to beat Newt is keep debates to a minimum and in bad time spots while letting the DNC machine keep reminding people over and over how Newt resigned from his congressional position in “disgrace” or pound on any number of narratives about his divorces and affairs.
Seriously, Team Obama will play the “hypocrite for going after Clinton while seeing your own mistress on the side” and “started a divorce on his first wife while she was in the hospital after tumor surgery” and then the “Republicans are just corrupt old white men with no hearts,” narrative sticks to Newt like a rare-earth magnet.
It isn’t true or fair, but David Axelrod isn’t interested in truth or fairness.
In the end, if Romney can be called the Man of Plastic then Newt is the Man of Clay. The establishment won’t back him because he’s fragile. The conservative base won’t embrace him whole-heartedly because he’s a political porcupine and they still haven’t pulled out all the quills from last time. Newt is going to make someone a very good VP or cabinet secretary, but he’s not going to top a Republican ticket.
