The new Coronovirus, Covid-19 and its spread globally

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For what it’s worth: I read something today, not remembering where, that posited that Covid-19 started in northern Italy around Milan because that area had a fair amount of Chinese traffic. It seems that over the last decade or so, the Italians sold a fair number of their textile, leather goods and clothing makers to Chinese buyers who kept the factories in Italy but staffed them with low wage Chinese workers, many of them illegal, so they could sell “Made In Italy” back home. Many Chinese transiting between Milan and Wuhan for this business. Couple that with Italy’s own fertility rate which has declined for many years, leading to a greater percentage of old people there.

Health system is so overloaded in Lombardy that if someone being treated is over 65, has other severe health conditions and goes into cardiac arrest, it is an automatic DNR. That was probably the case in Wuhan as well.

Which points up the need to have already started social distancing here as pointed out by @Theo520 above. Many people here may still get it, but hopefully the getting it is spaced out over a longer period of time so the healthcare system can cope at least somewhat better.

We must continue to pray for the healthcare workers on the front lines.
 
Zzyzx_Road said:
For what it’s worth: I read something today, not remembering where, that posited that Covid-19 started in northern Italy around Milan because that area had a fair amount of Chinese traffic. It seems that over the last decade or so, the Italians sold a fair number of their textile, leather goods and clothing makers to Chinese buyers who kept the factories in Italy but staffed them with low wage Chinese workers, many of them illegal, so they could sell “Made In Italy” back home. Many Chinese transiting between Milan and Wuhan for this business.
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By the same token, this probably explains why Iran is such a hot spot as well: due to sanctions, the Iranians have limited options for their oil exports. China has been buying a lot of it and has started participating in Iranian oil field development. Not to mention Iran is considered a critical nexus in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. So again, that led to a fair number of Chinese traveling between China, Tehran and Qom which iirc is where some of the major Iranian oil fields are.

As with Italy, there is considerable travel between Iran and surrounding friendly countries so that is mostly how those countries are getting their own cases.

It’s interesting that we’re not hearing much about Africa. Either because they have little testing resources or because like Thailand, it’s hot there. Dunno.
 
Until testing is widely available there is no way to get a handle on this. Has anyone read or heard what is the window period from the time of infection to the time a would detect the infection? I have not seen this anywhere.
 
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That was in general a good press conference by the President. Hope you were watching. No more political comment here as the thread title specifically requests that.
Zach said:
Until testing is widely available there is no way to get a handle on this. Has anyone read or heard what is the window period from the time of infection to the time a would detect the infection? I have not seen this anywhere.
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finance.yahoo.com

South Korea’s coronavirus patients will be able to vote from homes and hospitals

The country's election commission approved the social distancing measure for April's general election.
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com

en.yna.co.kr

(5th LD) S. Korea's virus cases rebound amid cluster infection in Seoul | Yonhap News Agency

(ATTN: ADDS reported death toll in para 5, details on call center in paras 18-19) SEOUL,...
en.yna.co.kr en.yna.co.kr

From these two articles:
As of two days ago, South Korea has performed 214,000 tests so far using their test protocol and found that less than 4% tested positive. At that time, they reported 7700 cases, along with another 20,000 in quarantine due to their contact with the infected. Only 60 deaths so far, but I’m thinking they may have undercounted that. They are saying the dead were all old people. Presumably with other issues. They started with people experiencing respiratory symptoms and found that in 96% of test subjects, the symptoms if any belonged to some respiratory ailment other than Covid-19.

Now that doesn’t quite answer your question, but it should give you some idea what it looks like in the heaviest hit part of South Korea.

The South Koreans developed the capability to test 15,000 people per day. Per the President’s press conference this afternoon, the task force is working with Labcorp, Qwest Diagnostics, state labs and other parties to ramp up domestic testing capability in a similar way to how South Korea did it.
 
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Zzyzx_Road said:
It’s interesting that we’re not hearing much about Africa. Either because they have little testing resources or because like Thailand, it’s hot there. Dunno.
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Just now I saw this in the Daily Mail in which the first case is reported for east Africa, in Kenya. She got it in the US and returned home via London.

www.dailymail.co.uk

East Africa's coronavirus case as Kenyan woman tests positive

A Kenyan woman, 27, has tested positive for coronavirus, says Health Minister Mutahi Kagwe (pictured). The patient travelled to Nairobi via London. It is the first case in East Africa.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
 
MrZoom said:
The article cites “15 deaths” in the U.S. Since that was written, deaths in the U.S. from the coronavirus have nearly tripled, and it’s still going up. The number of total cases in the U.S. has taken off in the last week (see link below).

This is really irresponsible reporting by LSN.

United States COVID: 40,703,674 Cases and 664,935 Deaths - Worldometer
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You do realize the LSN article was written on March 9, while you referred to the current data (it says Mar 14th on the worldometers site.) So a change from 14 deaths to 48 in five days isn’t exactly panic inducing. You do realize that between 30, 000 and 50, 000 die from whatever flu bug is circulating in any typical year in the United States.

Perhaps your definition of “irresponsible” ought to be reconsidered?
 
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@MrZoom Note along those lines cited by @HarryStotle that I was was careful to say “as of two days ago” when talking a few posts ago about South Korea. Plus everyone can clearly see the date of the Daily Mail article I posted about Kenya.
 
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Looks like the testing Dam has broke.
my state has done over 6,500 tests
the university is offering to test for any doctor in the country.
This is Washington
 
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The excuse me was not to you 🙂. I was questioning another’s question.

Today USA is under National Emergency Orders, the Covid 19 epicentre is now Europe, Iran is being accused of mass graves and not being accurate on the death toll via satellite, Italians are saying the elderly are not being prioritized, those likely to recover are prioritized

and the run on toilet paper continues .

China is accusing USA of giving it the virus initially,

I am on hopefully my last week in isolation. Anyone else in Isolation?
 
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At the time, all three of those points were true. The New York Times ran an opinion piece today on how western countries wasted the time we had to prepare for this while it was spreading in China. And the Chinese government also delayed action which cost thousands of lives. They failed to contain it and we failed to prevent it.
 
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That’s good info but it made me chuckle at the thought: in China, the government forces people to get tested. In the U.S.A. the people have to force the government to get tests for them.
 
We may be there as well if you are quarantined, our capacity is jumping up now and will soon meet critical demand
 
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