The new Coronovirus, Covid-19 and its spread globally

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Below is an interesting comparison of cities for 1918 Flu

Be hygienic, practice social distancing, and stay home if you are sick

www.biomerieuxconnection.com

How Public Health Policies Saved Citizens in St. Louis During the 1918 Flu Pandemic - bioMérieux Connection

If geography truly is destiny, this saying was never more true than during the influenza pandemic of 1918. Where you lived often determined if you survived, with high fatality rates in large cities, overcrowded military bases, and the congested refugee camps that housed the displaced during...
www.biomerieuxconnection.com www.biomerieuxconnection.com
 
Some thoughts:
Be at least somewhat fit. Anyone who cannot climb a couple of flights of stairs without stopping is likely at risk of a worse outcome if they get infected. The virus apparently directly impacts the ability of the lungs to transfer oxygen to the blood. Meaning if one does not start with sufficient oxygen absorption capacity when in good health, one is more likely to be in need of medical intervention. Those who have incurable lung ailments like COPD and emphysema will be in deep trouble; this population may suffer the worst outcomes.

For the rest of us not in assisted living facilities, which is most of us, the usual guidelines of getting enough sleep, exercising enough to maintain oxygen capacity, washing hands and otherwise maintaining first world hygienic practices, should ameliorate the worst of this along with the arrival of warmer weather. I expect the most fit people to have a mortality rate not much different from the current influenza strains while those with compromised immune systems may experience greater issues and will have to work harder to avoid infection.

There are apparently at least two strains out there. A less severe version that feels like a bad cold and a more severe version that takes longer to recover from and can be lethal. This likely explains how people who apparently recover to the point of getting a negative test can reacquire the virus. There does not seem to be much if any cross-immunity between these two strains. The question of which one is better to get first is unsettled. Also the question of what happens when one contracts influenza before, during or after getting infected by the coronavirus is unsettled as well.

Regarding skill nursing and assisted living facilities:
First, by definition, just about everyone in those facilities has at least somewhat compromised immune systems. Figure this is the largest population of the oxygen-challenged among us.
Second, there is some evidence of fecal transmission and this has to be considered a possible vector in these facilities. Think how often care assistants have to help patients with their bathroom activities and how well (or not well) they’re cleaning up around that.
Third, what will happen if enough of the care staff gets infected that the rest don’t want to work in the facility? For those with loved ones in these facilities, these are not warm thoughts. But they have to be considered.

I still expect this to recede at least somewhat with warmer weather. Look at Thailand and Singapore as examples here. Thailand was the first country outside of China to get an initial spike in cases thanks to the millions of Chinese visitors during the Chinese New Year period. But look their count since.
 
Now that more time has passed and we get a better idea of things, the symptoms are unusual. Very few people who get infected actually get sore throats unlike colds or flu. Fever is the give away symptom for those not asymptomatic. And the cough is a dry one.
SymptomPercentage
Fever87.9%
Dry cough67.7%
Fatigue38.1%
Sputum production33.4%
Shortness of breath18.6%
Muscle pain or joint pain14.8%
Sore throat13.9%
Headache13.6%
Chills11.4%
Nausea or vomiting5%
Nasal congestion4.8%
Diarrhoea3.7%
Haemoptysis0.9%
Conjunctival congestion0.8%
 
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What are the symptoms of the new coronavirus?​

Fever, dry cough, and trouble breathing are the common symptoms of COVID-19. There have been some reports of gastrointestinal symptoms (nausea, vomiting, or diarrhea) before respiratory symptoms occur, but this is largely a respiratory virus.
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Can people who are asymptomatic spread coronavirus?​

A person who is asymptomatic may be shedding the virus and could make others ill. How often asymptomatic transmission is occurring is unclear.

Can the coronavirus live on soft surfaces like fabric or carpet? What about hard surfaces?​

How long the new coronavirus can live on a soft surface — and more importantly, how easy or hard it is to spread this way — isn’t clear yet. So far, available evidence suggests it can be transmitted less easily from soft surfaces than frequently-touched hard surfaces, such as a doorknob or elevator button.

According to the WHO, coronaviruses may survive on surfaces for just a few hours or several days, although many factors will influence this, including surface material and weather.
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Coronavirus Resource Center - Harvard Health

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) is a respiratory illness caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It is very contagious, and spreads quickly. Most people with COVID-19 have mild respiratory symptoms that feel much like a cold or flu. But it can be much more serious for older adults, people with...
www.health.harvard.edu www.health.harvard.edu
 
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OurLadyofSorrows said:
Experts have said climate this year wont stay the spread of this virus, given humans have limited immunity to it.
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Explain Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines. The last of which has very little western quality medical care relative to its population. These countries were all exposed to millions of Chinese visitors in the case of Thailand and many tens of thousands in Singapore and the Philippines during the Chinese New Year. But all three are experiencing very little internal transmission. Meaning sick people enter the country, give it to some locals, but very few of the locals are transmitting it on. All three countries have since restricted inbound travel from China. None of the three countries are experiencing increasing internal transmission. All three countries are hot and humid.
 
Zzyzx_Road said:
Explain Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines.
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I would rather leave it to the experts in virology. Their predictions for how this virus is going to play out have been accurate to now.

To reinstate humans have little to no immunity to this virus, its novel. To continue to compare it to flu , colds, other corona virii is an error that blinkers the behaviour of it.

To accurately , (and I question the accuracy of the stated experiences of individual countries in experiencing this virus, a lot,) predict the extent of and the time when a novel virus will take hold is dependent on many factors.

Many countries in Oceana had an influx of Chinese tourism during the new year, and start of the academic year and over Christmas.

The virus is best guess thought to have been incubated in hot humid conditions in pangolins.
 
I am from one of those countries, and I hope that the hot weather here can indeed help kill the virus. Per official news the numbers of those positive more than doubled, but we had weeks of no news of positive cases. It’s known here for cover ups, or people probably not even knowing they are sick already esp among the poor. When you give them medicine for coughs or cold, they would either not take it or not follow the dosage.
 
Australia is on the verge of a pandemic, it is pretty hot there atm. That country is saying all schools will close when it hits.

Shedding the virus means a carrier I think, dont really get sick but shed the virus around to others.
 
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It seems to work for the viruses we get annually but this is like SARS and MERs except much more contagious. If it were killed by warmer temperatures it can still be transferred via droplet method and keep finding hosts. It is going to keep travelling, the experts say, while it can find hosts.
 
Annie said:
What does it mean to shed the virus?
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We all tend to cough over minor things like accidentally choke on our own saliva or something trivial like that. Sometimes asymptomatic people get a bit of dust in their noses and sneeze.
And I think everyone has been guilty of spraying words instead of saying them.
So those droplets could be on surfaces that people touch.
 
We learned about this particular virus shortly after a cluster of severe pneumonia cases were reported on New Year’s Eve 2019 in Wuhan, which is in the Hubei Province of China. On January 9, virologists and other public health researchers identified the strain as a novel coronavirus, which was tied to a specific “wet market” in the city of Wuhan, where they sell fish and other live animals.

These markets have been known to transmit viruses before. For cultural reasons in the region, people want to see the specific animals they’re buying be slaughtered in front of them, so they know they’re receiving the products they paid for. As a result, particles of infectious viruses or bacteria can be aerosolized and, in rare instances, jump from animals to people. It’s how SARS, another coronavirus, started in 2003.
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This video was published a couple of days ago, it discussed two different strains of COVID-19 - one more severe and the other less severe. Felt this is worthy to share.

 
Annie said:
What does it mean to shed the virus?
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I is the time when a person can pass the virus to others. A virus enters your body’s own cells, where it grows and multiplies. It then exits and infects other cells and is present in body fluids, where it can be expelled via coughing, sneezing, etc. (in the case of respiratory viruses) and infect others.

It doesn’t always correspond to the time a person shows symptoms like cough, fever, and others. It may be early on, later, throughout the illness, or intermittently.
 
Temperature, humidity, and UV exposure affect the viability on surfaces, which may help reduce transmission.
 
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