The new Coronovirus, Covid-19 and its spread globally

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I’m with Dr. Drew on this. It isn’t 2% of people who catch the virus dying, it’s 2% of people with significant symptoms dying. Given the relatively mild nature of the illness and the fact that its appearance coincided with cold and flu season I would not at all be surprised if there aren’t hundreds of thousands of infected people who don’t even realize they had this illness.

Yes, it is dangerous to those with compromised immune systems, but so is the cold. Wash your hands and stay home if you’re feeling sick, just as you should anyway under any circumstances.

I am a nurse living and working in the area most affected by Corvid-19 in the U.S. and I’m not any more worried about this than I was about the flu season in general.

Peace and God bless!
 
Ghosty1981 said:
I would not at all be surprised if there aren’t hundreds of thousands of infected people who don’t even realize they had this illness.
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My household had a crazy thing at the end of 2019 with symptoms like Covid19. It definitely was not flu.

The only way to ascertain this is if CDC reviewed nasal swabs and blood tests dating back.

Would current blood samples show antibodies?

Maybe more Americans have died from Covid 19 than previously suspected?

Could US health care be that amiss?
 
In Australia a doctor has caught it from her patient in the first case of human to human transmission in that country.

Again we should not be comparing this with flu and the behaviour of flu because it is way too early for statistical comparisons, the stats on that wont hold up yet. Sure in a couple of years they will, but not now, especially since it is just starting to spread outside of China.

What we do know anecdotally because the stats are just being written now.
It is spreading outside China much faster then it spread within China.
It is more contagious than the flu
It is more serious than the flu for those who experience complications.
It has a higher death rate then the flu from what the toll shows , however, most health bodies believe the death toll is being suppressed in certain countries and deaths are going unrecorded in others as from the virus.

No one should panic, for sure, but the global community should be treating this seriously and be aware of the path this virus is taking.
Donkey said:
Could US health care be that amiss?
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This virus is traced back to November last year, I think global health care can be a bit amiss here.
 
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OurLadyofSorrows said:
In Australia a doctor has caught it from her patient in the first case of human to human transmission in that country.
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In the first confirmed case; if Australia is anything like the U.S. then the virus has been spreading within the community for almost two months already at this point. It is not true that the virus is only just now beginning to spread outside of China, but rather testing and tracking is just now beginning to show how widespread it is outside of China.

Keep in mind that the current tests apparently only work for active cases (speaking for the U.S.), and a sample must be specifically selected for testing. Given that we’ve been in cold and flu season in the U.S. we’ve had countless cases of people with symptoms who weren’t tested for this novel virus because they were deemed to be likely related to the existing cold and flu. It was presumed that recent contact with someone who travelled to certain regions was needed for transmission, but we now know that is false and that local community spread is at least as old as the first recorded U.S. case in Washington State.

While the CDC’s apparently inept response is troubling, it is so because of errors in the rollout of widespread testing, not so much because the virus is especially deadly. People with a cough and a mild fever weren’t being tested for this virus in the U.S. six weeks ago when it began spreading through the community locally, so it’s quite possible that the “bad cold” we had here recently was actually this virus all along. It is also possible that we are only just now seeing it spread, but the genetic evidence indicates otherwise.

I doubt we will ever have a clear picture of the spread of this disease because the severity and death rate wasn’t initially high enough to make it rise above the background noise of the seasonal cold and flu in the U.S.

Of course I could be wrong, but I hope not!

Peace and God bless!
 
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Ghosty1981 said:
In the first confirmed case; if Australia is anything like the U.S. then the virus has been spreading within the community for almost two months already at this point. It is not true that the virus is only just now beginning to spread outside of China, but rather testing and tracking is just now beginning to show how widespread it is outside of China.
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This is not their first confirmed case, just first human transmission within the country. The doctor was caring for an Iranian originate corona virus case All other cases there are external origin atm.

Right now the virus is spreading outside China faster then it did in China, does that mean China did a better job of containment.

This is in countries experiencing a fast spread of the virus atm, Iran, South Korea, Italy.
USA, Australia, UK, Indonesia etc will experience this if it cannot be contained and I think the only way it can is with complete lockdowns .
Vietnam says it has cured all its cases.
 
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OurLadyofSorrows said:
This virus is traced back to November last year, I think global health care can be a bit amiss here.
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Eventually, we will know the path and how far back it goes. I wouldn’t be surprised to find it was percolating beyond China in October, November and December. Initially, doctors probably dismissed it as the flu. What percentage of people typically get swabbed when they get flu-like symptoms? I bet the percentage is small…not anymore. Now everyone walking in doctor offices with flu-like symptoms gets swabbed.
 
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I saw that Theo520, thanks.
I still prefer John Hopkins ArcGIS Dashboards Classic

It shows the death rate per country. Iran is in a bad sort of way with what appears to be a much higher death rate. Hopefully, the world will learn much and grow from this experience.
 
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Donkey said:
It shows the death rate per country. Iran is in a bad sort of way with what appears to be a much higher death rate. Hopefully, the world will learn much and grow from this experience.
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That is a good link!

Me thinks Iran is lying about their infections, which leads to a higher death rate. It also might be higher because it got it’s foot in their political leadership, who are all old people. Sorta like how the US deaths are coming from a nursing home and thus we have a higher calculated rate.
 
Lack of test kits is probably a greater issue than lying although you never know…people do lie.
Nursing homes, hospitals, assisted living centers for elderly…there are soooo many places I can think of where elderly come together.

It’s going to be really tough to offset this until a vaccine is widely available.
 
Thanks for that link. Looking at the ratio if deaths to recovered is rather scary. As is the ratio of serious/critical to active cases.

For a while it seems people said the mortality rate is under 1% of we don’t know yet. That may be, as the number if unknown cases may be really high and the above ratios would look much better with a larger denominator. But it seems the data and info keeps pointing a high mortality rate.
 
So, listening to nyc mayor now live…
The Westchester guy had respiratory issues for a month before finally seeking help.

The situation sounds ripe.
 
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tafan2 said:
For a while it seems people said the mortality rate is under 1% of we don’t know yet. That may be, as the number if unknown cases may be really high and the above ratios would look much better with a larger denominator. But it seems the data and info keeps pointing a high mortality rate.
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It’s certainly higher than SARS or influenza, but it’s not close to ebola or other pandemics that decimated populations. 1-2% and that’s driven by complications from age and other illnesses. The symptoms are mild in the young and healthy.
 
Florida: Third person with virus with no known travel history to infected areas.
Consider the warm temperatures in Florida.
Some have wondered if the virus will die back in warmer temps.
Let’s watch the Sunshine State closely.
 
Donkey said:
Florida: Third person with virus with no known travel history to infected areas.
Consider the warm temperatures in Florida.
Some have wondered if the virus will die back in warmer temps.
Let’s watch the Sunshine State closely.
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You may want to consider countries like Thailand. They had over 3 million Chinese tourists during the Chinese New Year period. But look at their current case count and consider that they are in their hot season now and have been since January. Following the initial spike, it has definitely leveled off. It’s also like that in Singapore. Philippines hasn’t been hit that hard either and they get a lot of Chinese visitors too. Hong Kong and SE Asia are warming up. But South Korea and Japan are still experiencing chilly and wintry weather as are Iran and Italy.

This will recede when the warmer weather hits. Those of us in the cold weather regions will just have to ride it out until warmer temps arrive for good. At that point, we can step back and consider how to handle it better when the temps start cooling again this fall.

Essentially what happens is that visitors bearing the virus and visiting a warmer region may infect someone in the warmer area, but thanks to the warm weather, it will not be that communicable from there.
 
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At my doctors office. Had to fill out a form about whether I’d been to China recently or been in contact with someone who has had coronavirus. They have masks in case you have.
 
Italy is looking at a high death rate outside China.
Japan is now holding discourse on delaying the Olympics until the end of the year.

Peaking predictions for the virus have begun, for example Australia, NZ, and Oceanic countries are not predicted to peak in cases until August.
 
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