The new Coronovirus, Covid-19 and its spread globally

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Top infectious disease expert won’t rule out temporary national lockdown
Don’t see any purpose in a national lockdown.

I’m in WA and from what I see we are doing fine
  • Increased social distancing, check
  • better hygiene, check
  • awareness and testing, check
While increased testing is making the numbers jump, we have definitely flattened the infection curve.

A national lockdown would just punish every small business, without benefit health-wise. Most states just need to do the basics (hygiene & distancing), they don’t have to close their schools and make the parents stay home.
 
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Most states just need to do the basics (hygiene & distancing), they don’t have to close their schools and make the parents stay home.
Our schools are closed this week for spring break and the district has added a second week due to the virus. They are using this two week timeframe to thoroughly clean and disinfect the schools. I think it’s a great idea even though I acknowledge the hardship on working parents. Since colds and flu run rampant at this time anyway, knowing the kids will be going back to thoroughly disinfected classrooms should help diminish all the illnesses. Closing schools is basic protocol in a pandemic…and this IS a pandemic!
 
How do you know this?
I’m stating the obvious. We are largely practicing social distancing and increasing hygiene. Many many people are working from home. Yes, it will continue to spread but the rate of infection will drop.

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A national lockdown would just punish every small business, without benefit health-wise. Most states just need to do the basics (hygiene & distancing), they don’t have to close their schools and make the parents stay home.
While that’s definitely what we are doing here, we didn’t see a huge spike at the start.

However we don’t have clear rates in the US/other places due to crappy handling at the start. I can’t speak for a lock down in the States vs Italy, but I do get the logic of minimising as much as you can to flatten the curve
 
I hope you are correct. Certainly it must help some, but if it is an exponential spread, it us not obvious to me that it is yet significant. I thought maybe you had some data to support it.

I pray you are right. The countries that seemed to be successful, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, had a more broad strategy than we have yet implemented.
 
I hope you are correct. Certainly it must help some, but if it is an exponential spread, it us not obvious to me that it is yet significant. I thought maybe you had some data to support it.

I pray you are right. The countries that seemed to be successful, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, had a more broad strategy than we have yet implemented.
The data seems to support me.

The US is about #37 rank of countries by cases per MM people. Italy was thick in the crisis before they started to mandate social distancing.


We will have drive through testing very soon, and we are no where near Korea’s infection rate of 159/MM. Incidentally, we are ramping up our testing the same way Korea did, by partnering with private testing services. Both Korea and the US had to change their Govt mandated regulations to improve testing response. The regulations that were in place were not appropriate for this sort of pandemic.
 
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I hope you are right.

You overstate, by far, any similiaritues in testing problems between Korea and us. They were ready to test 10000 a day almost as soon as the virus hit their country. They ramped up much, much faster than we did. And they used the testing results to better understand where virus hotspots were and could take more targeted and aggressive action with the data. You can’t really compare how bad we have done vs the Koreans.
We are over a month into the disease being in our country and can test barely 1500/day, in a country that is 6 times the population of Korea.

Here is one article that describes their testing:

 
You overstate, by far, any similiaritues in testing problems between Korea and us.
No, I suspect you just don’t know the history.

Korea fixed their bad regulation following the last pandemic where they were hit hard and their Govt testing labs were overwhelmed. We are fixing our bad regulations in this pandemic, but we are taking the same approach.
 
No, I know the history. We are not a fraction as far into testing as South Korea was at this same time relative to the disease hitting their country.

And I have second hand (ie immediate family member) knowledge if how testing us going now. Not close to drive thru resting, despite what the administration says. It is still, very, very broken.
 
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All out effort is characterized by the assumption that the worst will happen. Test kits clearly are an after thought. Some people are simply afraid to wrap their heads around this.

I haven’t said here yet but I will now. America stands to lose a whole bunch of lives. We have enjoyed a health care system that supports many lives in extraordinary ways. Coronavirus doesn’t care about that.
 
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While Japan and Italy have some largest population of older adults, who has more medically assisted than USA?
 
While Japan and Italy have some largest population of older adults, who has more medically assisted than USA?
I am not sure this is what you are referring to, but the lack of excess capacity in our healthcare system is a real concern. We have fewer beds per capita than most developed nations, including Italy and Korea. And most of our beds are occupied on any given day. If the pandemic requires hundreds of thousands of beds, our healthcare system will be in a serious crisis.
 
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I always hear this, and I suppose it is correct, but the number if hospitals that have been built around here the last 20 years is really phenomenal. I suppose they are mostly full, but on the surface, it’s hard to believe.
 
No, I know the history. We are not a fraction as far into testing as South Korea was at this same time relative to the disease hitting their country.
You ignored what I said.

Our testing was greatly hampered by mandated testing by govt labs.

Korea experienced the same problem during the last pandemic and it hit them hard, both the virus and their lack of testing. Korea then changed their regulations to enable govt/private partnership.

The US is making the same regulation changes this pandemic.

If you want to ‘blame someone’ then it should be the Obama era admin for not proactively implementing similar regulation changes as did Korea, when they implemented their changes.

I personally don’t blame Obama era admin because such changes are invariable reactive to your immediate crisis.

I don’t blame Trump era admin because they are now responding and have rapidly implemented the needed regulation changes.
 
The US is making the same regulation changes this pandemic.
Well, that’s a couple months too late. Regardless of the history, your original claim:
Incidentally, we are ramping up our testing the same way Korea did, by partnering with private testing services.
With regards to this pandemic is just wrong. I guess from your perspective, all is hunky-dory if we have effective testing the next time there is a pandemic.
 
There just arent enough test kits to go around at the moment. That is the biggest problem.
 
Part of the problem is that the CDC couldn’t allow other labs to begin testing with their own developed tests because the emergency needed to be declared first. Once President Trump declared it an emergency, the CDC allowed other labs to bypass the usual protocols.
There just arent enough test kits to go around at the moment.
I’m not sure what you mean by test kits. There are no quick tests for the virus. Labs that do the testing now are still in the ramp up phase and there may very well be reagent shortages as the tests are so new. The companies providing the reagents are ramping up as well. I haven’t heard that any labs are unable to test the specimens they are getting…meaning they are running short of reagents. If so, I’d love a link.

The specimens needed are NP swabs and I’m pretty sure there is no shortage yet of these. Even if the labs are running short of reagents, specimens are getting tested, just slower than what they’ll be able to do in another week or so…it’s first come first serve and they will hold any NP swabs until it’s their turn.
 
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