The new Coronovirus, Covid-19 and its spread globally

  • Thread starter Thread starter OurLadyofSorrows
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
Here are the predicted cases for Australia in the next few weeks, whoxh will make that country in a bigger covid19 crisis then Italy

this is what doctors are saying is going to happen in Australia

“On current growth rates the 370 cases in Australia today will be 750 on Friday, 1500 on Tuesday next week, 3000 next Saturday, 6000 on the 1st of April and 12,000 by the 4th of April,” the open letter read before total numbers climbed to 452 on Tuesday.

“This is less than three weeks from now and puts us in a worse position than Italy is currently in.”
Australia took the same position as the UK, wait till it gets too bad, then act, they will be feeling it soon with their death toll
 
Australia put social distancing in and the next few days the beaches were full. A characteristic of Young people is being under the misconception of bulletproofness .
 
I understand that we shouldn’t panic and there is no reason why we should however downplaying it is just as bad and irrational as panicking wouldn’t you agree? Also what i have noticed on many right ring pages of FB by the likes of Ben Shapiro and others which claim to be Pro life aswell as on here is that they feel that trying too hard to control the spread of this virus is draconian and wrong and an overreaction, i have even heard many blame Italy’s socialist hospital system for the death toll when in reality it’s because like the US Italy was complacent and the infection rate grew too fast for their hospitals to handle.
I see, so you are railing about those who think some control measures are draconian, while at the same time shaming Italy for being “complacent?”

Besides China (and a few of its neighboring countries,) Italy was one of the first two to be really hit hard early (Iran was the other). Most of the other countries had Italy to look at which gave them more time and the opportunity to react with serious consideration and implement more drastic measures. By then most of the population was on board because of what was happening in Italy.

You are attempting to distill down the difficulty Italy is in currently, to one cause. That isn’t exactly a reasonable analysis of the issue.

As to your predictions, you sound very certain about a “similar scenario” in the US. Perhaps you are trying to frighten people into responding, but I don’t think painting such a dire portrait as with near certain terms will strengthen resolve, it may do the opposite.

Being positive but realistic and cautious is a better psychological approach for everyone.
 
Last edited:
40.png
Paddy1989:
I understand that we shouldn’t panic and there is no reason why we should however downplaying it is just as bad and irrational as panicking wouldn’t you agree? Also what i have noticed on many right ring pages of FB by the likes of Ben Shapiro and others which claim to be Pro life aswell as on here is that they feel that trying too hard to control the spread of this virus is draconian and wrong and an overreaction, i have even heard many blame Italy’s socialist hospital system for the death toll when in reality it’s because like the US Italy was complacent and the infection rate grew too fast for their hospitals to handle.
I see, so you are railing about those who think some control measures are draconian, while at the same time shaming Italy for being “complacent?”

Besides China (and a few of its neighboring countries,) Italy was one of the first two to be really hit hard early (Iran was the other). Most of the other countries had Italy to look at which gave them more tie and opportunity to react with more drastic measures.

You are attempting to distill down the difficulty Italy is in currently to one cause. That isn’t exactly a reasonable analysis of the issue.

As to your predictions, you sound very certain about a “similar scenario” in the US. Perhaps you are trying to frighten people into responding, but I don’t think painting such a dire portrait as with near certain terms will strengthen resolve, it may do the opposite.

Being positive but realistic and cautious is a better psychological approach for everyone.
Yes Italy, the US, UK, France and Spain were complacent, we know this from the rising cases and deaths that is occurring compared to Asia which reacted differently. I’m railing the people who claim the shutdown is Draconian and not needed when clearly it is and the longer you try to avoid it and let the virus spread the longer your shutdown will last when it finally spreads. It’s common knowledge to act hard, act fast to keep the curve down.

As for my prediction. Spain is now where Italy was days ago losing nearly 300 a day, france is over a week behind and the UK just behind that, each of these nations acted identically in that they waited too late to act so will potentially lose thousands each. If they continue their shutdown they have a real chance of bringing those numbers down by trying to eliminate the spread. I’m not trying to frighten people at all, just to have some common sense to take this seriously enough to expect that they may have to inconvenience their lives for while until we get this to manageable levels. The two dangers are over-reaction and under-reaction
 
Last edited:
40.png
HarryStotle:
The reason for that may be because they were infected with the virus while taking anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen.
Oh please, dont, make, these , assumptions.
The serious cases in young people are patients who have taken anti-inflammatory drugs at the beginning of the disease (ibuprofen, naproxen, voltarene, diclofenac, etc.) should be avoided.
no, just no
Let me qualify my original statement. I think there are good (though not completely proven) reasons for not taking anti-inflammatory drugs.
  • the body’s immune response to a virus of this kind is to release mast cells
  • mast cells are released very quickly from the respiratory tract
  • when mast cells come into contact with the virus, they trigger a broader immune response including inflammatory chemicals being released into the body
  • inflammatory chemicals help tackle the virus in the medium to long term
  • it is the effectiveness of inflammatory chemicals that determines whether a person suffers complications from the virus or makes a full recovery.
  • if medicines that dampen this immune response are taken, the body is not as efficient fighting off the infection
So, I don’t think the “no, just, no” response of yours is appropriate. A better one would be…

“maybe, just maybe”

Let’s be cautious on this.

Edit: I have also heard quite a different position from a respirologist who explained the kind of interstitial pneumonia triggered by COVID-19 as a kind of over-reaction of the body’s immune system to the virus.
 
Last edited:
Yes there are good reasons, I completely agree.

No, just , no because young people are in ICU because of covid19.
 
Really it is kind of surreal. I watched man step on the moon in real time, the first electronic calculator, the first PC, Apple, Dick Tracy’s watch, the trade center towers, and now we are all going to spend some quality time to ourselves, but with a terrible price tag.

No, panic is useless, and I do know what you mean. This will end, and hopefully, like a person who overcame a daunting challenge, we will be a little bit better of a species for it. I certainly hope that we / I become a better Catholic. Like any pain or tragedy we can offer this up in reparation and try to help in some way. And pray.
 
Last edited:
Right now staying at home is mandatory for us. There is police and other forces patrolling streets. As for now, we can only leave eventually to the pharmacy, food stores, and where materials for repairing homes are found. Entering almost one by one. The vast majority is grateful and supports the measures. They can get even stricter if deemed necessary. We strengthen each other by reminding us that it is the way to take care of each other. Thanks God for resources that keep us communicating with each other, relatives and family and friends.Thanks God for those persons who keep doing the research to find the way out from this pandemic.Thanks God for all who are taking care of us in one way or another.
It will pass, everything passes , in the meantime patience …
 
Last edited:
Edit: I have also heard quite a different position from a respirologist who explained the kind of interstitial pneumonia triggered by COVID-19 as a kind of over-reaction of the body’s immune system to the virus
That is a curious but logical response to me. Interested to hear more
 
Make sure they are all doing safe things. And ask God to calm your heart.
 
For everyone, Please listen if you want some real understanding…
Sent to me from a friend & pilot in the military…
Thanks for this post.
I hope that people take a moment to look at this outstanding presentation.
Anyone got projected outlooks for other countries?
There is excellent county by country tacking of confirmed cases, recoveries, and deaths here:


Click on the country name for more details and graphs.

Some countries have been successful in flattening the curve. On the other hand, countries that are (or have been) lax in mitigation efforts are (or had been) seeing a doubling of cases ~ every three days.

In such situations, the outlook in cases, C, d days from now, is C/Co = 2^(d/3), where Co is the number of cases today. For example, over a month of growth at this rate, the number of cases will be ~1000 times what it is today. For the US that would be ~30 million cases.

That is why is important to take the recommendations on mitigation very seriously. Nations that act have been successful in controlling the spread of this virus.
 
Last edited:
A couple of points. First, the WHO is not always the trustworthy organization many think it is. From their own Twitter feed:


That didn’t age well, did it? Want more? Here you go, from the vaunted NY Times:


That’s not aging well either. Here’s more, this one from NPR:


The WHO criticized the US among others for issuing travel bans against China. That didn’t age well.

Finally they are supporting the Chinese in the CCP’s attempt to rewrite the narrative away from itself.


And there’s this detailing the issues raised regarding China and WHO:


So say again why WHO should be the only reference we have on our social media?
 
A: Based on currently available information, WHO does not recommend against the use of of ibuprofen.

(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)
 
Last edited:
Further reading:

 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top