The new Coronovirus, Covid-19 and its spread globally

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Something better work soon. I keep reading and hearing about worst case scenarios. Half the California population getting the virus. Over a million deaths in the US alone. Millions of deaths worldwide. Stay at home orders of up to 18 months.
 
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We all have the same hope.
It is unchartered territory, Zach.
It is not bad that we prepare for worst case scenarios as for resources , and anticipate,what is not so good is to read about them all over.
 
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AlNg said:
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HarryStotle:
Sample of 30 patients: COVID-19 patients who took hydroxy-chloroquine were free of the disease in 6 days.
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Where do we buy the hydroxy-chloroquine ?
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I believe it is by prescription only, although it is a generic and commonly available drug. However, owing to the potential for successfully and quickly treating severe case, the medical community is holding the amounts currently available for the most severe cases.

Since the drug is readily manufactured, hopefully large quantities will come on stream in the relatively near future.
 
Germany has a medical system that is the envy of the world. It is already almost overwhelmed.

www.spiegel.de

The Big Wave of Corona Cases Will Hit German Hospitals in 10 to 14 Days

The German health-care system is considered one of the best in the world. But the coronavirus is mercilessly exposing its weaknesses, with some hospitals already facing difficulties. Can Germany prevent the kind of collapse seen in Italy?
www.spiegel.de www.spiegel.de

I think it is time for us to get really religious.
 
I don’t go out of my way to read about the worst case scenario. Just reading articles and watching news it’s being brought up.
 
It is experimental at the moment, for Covid 19. The right doses to be effective , and how effective they are, are still to be determined. Years ago everyone in the tropics would be issued this drug when there was a malaria outbreak. My big sister and I were just discussing it. She has fond memories of it. they would all take it, but still get RRF and the like. On a good note, the DNA sequencing of Covid 19 has been done. It contains some bat sequences and some other animal, she forgot which one.
You would likely be issued this drug if you were at risk for malaria, had malaria, and or needed it if travelling to a malaria area in the past, I am not sure if this is still the drug used, I will ask my sister. It is an old drug , it was used for a long time.

HIV drugs are also proving to be useful too. Again, correct dosing and effectiveness are still being determined.
 
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I will also say for infected people, more then 1 test is required, people are continually tested until they come up negative, and that usually happens over an extended period with several tests.
 
Pattylt said:
I’m interested that someone is now saying it is contagious only by contact, not aerosols or droplets…I need to see that confirmed before I’d tell anyone to feel safe going out. That’s a great mistake if it’s wrong!
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Not sure where that information came from. Perhaps it is a lack of understanding of the difference between airborne and aerosols. It is not an airborne virus, but it can be spread through aerosol (fine water droplets.)

The distinction is that the virus does not survive long in the air so breathing, unless someone is breathing directly on you from very close quarters, it would not be a problem. That is why social distancing is important — 2 metres is recommended.

The term aerosol, as far as I understand, means that the virus requires some liquid within which to live. Human breath is not sufficient, but a cough or sneeze will create sufficiently sized water droplets to provide a survivable amount of liquid for the virus to live for a while. Even dental work — polishing, drilling, etc., — will create aerosol (fine liquid droplets) that could enable the virus to survive. I am sure there is a technical definition of aerosol that defines the minimum size of droplets to count as aerosol. Human breath won’t because it basically amounts to condensation or individual water molecules in the air.

Someone walking down a hallway and breathing will not pose a hazard for others using that same hallway. Not for this virus. I believe measles is airborne and that is the reason it is so infectious.
 
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Here is information about how the coronavirus can be transmitted based on recent research:

The new coronavirus can survive for several hours in air particles and last days on surfaces, according to a new federally funded study published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Researchers from the National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, UCLA and Princeton University examined how long COVID-19 survives in the air as well as on copper, cardboard, plastic and stainless steel and then compared it with SARS, the coronavirus that emerged in late 2002 and killed nearly 800 people.

 
TigerLily-1 said:
Here is information about how the coronavirus can be transmitted based on recent research:

The new coronavirus can survive for several hours in air particles and last days on surfaces, according to a new federally funded study published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Researchers from the National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, UCLA and Princeton University examined how long COVID-19 survives in the air as well as on copper, cardboard, plastic and stainless steel and then compared it with SARS, the coronavirus that emerged in late 2002 and killed nearly 800 people.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/cor...-and-days-on-surfaces-new-us-study-shows.html
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Let’s be very specific…
They found that COVID-19 was detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper and up to 24 hours on cardboard. The new coronavirus can also last up to three days on plastic and stainless steel, the scientists concluded, adding the amount of the virus left on those surfaces decreases over time. Aerosols are solid or liquid particles that hang in the air, including fog, dust, and gas commonly used in medical procedures like ventilation and nebulizers.
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Human breath does not aerosol liquids. Aerosol is typically a mechanical process that creates tiny droplets (aka “particles”) of liquid. Sneezing and coughing can aerosol liquids, but breathing doesn’t have the force required to create droplets of a size to sustain a virus. Breathing condenses liquid into water molecules but not droplets. That would be a key distinction.
 
JoeFreedom said:
Fearmongering does no one any good.
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We need to stop attempting to discredit and close down conversations about covid19 with claims of fear mongering, or its like flu, or a cure will be available soon, or winter would mitigate it, or summer would mitigate it, or only old people die from it, or young people are not affected badly.
When I started this thread I had an idea, based on the Chinese experience, of what this could or would become. It is now confirmed what this virus is and what impact it will have on peoples lives.
This impact is here now, we are at the beginning. One third of Covid 19 hospital beds are occupied by young people critically ill. This contagion has an extremely effective way of getting into its human host.

We must be concerned. As Catholics we must also pray to God for mercy during this health crisis.

We are not being hysterical, we are being realistic here, this virus is here to stay, will and is infecting people, resulting in death and lasting health effects, will and is causing job losses.
It is something to be taken very seriously. It is not the flu.
California and and New York, Italy, China, many countries are in part or full lockdown because of a microscopic virus that cannot survive without a host, a human host.

We wont panic, be hysterical, but we wont bury our head in the sand and pretend this thing is not happening on a global scale. We will all do our part.

We will quash the myths doing things like seeing people dump their pets at shelters or a vet for euthanasia because they will get this from their dog or cat or chicken.
 
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HarryStotle said:
The distinction is that the virus does not survive long in the air so breathing, unless someone is breathing directly on you from very close quarters, it would not be a problem. That is why social distancing is important — 2 metres is recommended.
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The fine droplet mist can survive in the atmosphere for some length of time. Social distancing is great, However if you walk through a droplet mist present in the atmosphere, your social distancing procedures have failed. A person expelling Covid19 virus by droplet will expel a mist and this mist will be expelled into the atmosphere for a given period of time in one location,
Ever stuck an agar petri dish in a public throughfare and the incubated it? I have, it is not a pretty result.
The virus is also able to enter the body through the eyes.
Patty is right to be concerned.
Stay home if unwell is the recommendation.
Dont touch face or eyes.

Good news is there is no evidence at this point that the virus has mutated @Pattylt
 
Recall incoming flights from China were suspended on January 31.

As of yesterday, total known infections cases in:
British Columbia: 348
Washington state: 1524
Oregon: 137
California: 1224
Las Vegas: 126

This data is from government department of health websites and is current as of yesterday.

Total population 57m. Vancouver, Seattle, San Francisco, LA and Las Vegas were major incoming Chinese transit points.

Incoming flights from Europe were not stopped until this past week.

As of yesterday, total known infection cases:
New York state: 10377 as of today
New York city: 5683 as of yesterday

JFK airport is the largest US transit point for incoming flights from Europe.
 
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Further: if I go back to the southern California tri-county area that I grew up in, I see little reason to be more than careful and watchful and wash my hands a lot.

At one time, the LA County Public Health Department was monitoring well over 10,000 contacts for possible Covid-19 transmission. As of yesterday, just 292 confirmed cases in all of LA County. Out of 10.1 million population. 19 for Ventura County, 65 for Orange County. Given the time to becoming symptomatic, I would guess that the crisis is past for most of those 10000. My relatives don’t mind the social distancing, the hygiene measures and the caution around senior facilities. But they think the local lockdown is at least a bit overdone and I tend to agree with them.
 
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