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Rockoh22
Guest
I am not sure you read the NYT. This election was called off due to vote by mail fraud. The whole election was called off.
What percentage is it ok to have error?
What percentage is it ok to have error?
Trump encourages North Carolina residents to vote twice to test mail-in system
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TMC
Guest
I saw your admission of no evidence. I am aware that there was a problem in one district in NJ. I am also aware that some voting districts have issue with in person voting. Again, do you have any actual evidence that mail in voting has systemic problems that exceed the error rate of other voting methods? We have been using mail in voting for 150 years, so if there were systemic issues one would expect them to have been noticed before now.
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PaulinVA
Guest
Mr. Trump’s campaign cited the Paterson corruption case as a reason not to expand voting by mail. “By ordering universal vote-by-mail, he has created a recipe for disaster,” the suit said.
With more voters than ever eligible to vote by mail because of the outbreak, Mr. Trump has repeatedly warned, without any evidence, that mail-in ballots would lead to widespread fraud and would call into question the results of the November election.
But some election experts said it was somewhat misleading to use the Paterson scandal as a cudgel to discredit mail-in voting, noting that election fraud is extremely rare and, as the case in New Jersey shows, is usually easy to detect.
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Rockoh22
Guest
???
All I am asking is, what percentage of the vote can be error? 1%, 2%? What percentage is acceptable to have a valid election?
If we have the November Election and a simple 10 counties of the whole United States is caught with Vote by Mail fraud. Is that ok.
10 Counties is minuscule. That is less than .0001% of the USA.
What percentage of “Fraud” is acceptable?
All I am asking is, what percentage of the vote can be error? 1%, 2%? What percentage is acceptable to have a valid election?
If we have the November Election and a simple 10 counties of the whole United States is caught with Vote by Mail fraud. Is that ok.
10 Counties is minuscule. That is less than .0001% of the USA.
What percentage of “Fraud” is acceptable?
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MikeInVA
Guest
Wasn’t there a recent primary in NY where 20,000 mail-in votes - 25%, were thrown out due to administrative or other errors? Talk about voter suppression!
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TMC
Guest
I am not happy with any “fraud,” but you have not provided any reason to believe that mail voting is more fraudulent. Around 25% of all votes nationally are cast by mail. That has been true for a while. Have all the national elections been fraudulent? This year, maybe 30 or 35% of people vote by mail. Does that increase in mail voting cause some problem that the consistent vote by mail of the last 150 years did not? If your premise is that voting by mail is inherent untrustworthy, seems like you should be able to support that premise. With 150 years of data, there should be evidence if that were true.
And I agree with Trump on this one.
He wasn’t saying, “try to get your vote counted twice”; he was saying something like “track your mail-in vote to make sure it’s counted, and if not, cast a vote in person to ensure your vote will be counted.”
In fact, my state, in its instruction to voters, suggests that if you vote by mail, to track your ballot on line, and, if it isn’t counted on Election Day, go to the polls and follow an alternate procedure.
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QContinuum
Guest
Trump didn’t say “Mail a provisional ballot.” Probably because “provisional” has too many syllables.
If a person doesn’t understand “he was saying something like…” and goes into his local poll on election night, is told his ballot hasn’t been counted yet, or they cannot yet confirm it (because, of course, it’s election night), or are unable to access any tracking information, and that person goes to cast another ballot, he voted twice.
“Provisional” is the key word. Trump didn’t say it three times.
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Rockoh22
Guest
I agree with most of what you wrote. Here is what I understand. All the numbers I post are made up by me, no real numbers. I am only using them to give an idea, because I am not an expert, I am just trying to reason some stuff.
Some people argue that vote by mail has been done for many elections. True. What it is not said, is the system that was used. I request the ballot and they send it. But that is not what is being done. The state sends ballots to the last known address of a person by mail for them to cast votes. This ballots have not been requested, they were just sent. People are already showing how they have received ballots that are not theirs. And also vote by mail is very easy to manipulate. Supper easy, with the right people and a bit of patience, a single person can alter more than 100 votes.
But accepting that there will be fraud, Let me give them a small number of fraud each.
Now we have
1% voter fraud in person voting.
1% voter fraud by Absentee Ballots.
1% voter fraud voting by mail.
A quick engine search told me that only 138,884,643 people voted in the 2016 election. How true is that, I do not know, ask the internet.
I was generous and ask what is 2% of 138,884,643. The result is 2,777,692.
Let’s say Biden wins election night with 1,000,000 votes, but the vote by mail count says Trump wins by 2,000,000.
Oy Vey! What now?
Look I do not have clear reasoning all the time. But this is what makes me think about plausibilities.
Edit: Just in case it was not obvious. I tried to keep the person wining the election within the margin of error from Voter Fraud. Meaning both will cause the other party of voter fraud, within the margin of error. Who will win?
And if Biden Wins will Republicans accept it? If Trump Wins will Democrats accept it? Or will we have another four years of fighting each other?
Some people argue that vote by mail has been done for many elections. True. What it is not said, is the system that was used. I request the ballot and they send it. But that is not what is being done. The state sends ballots to the last known address of a person by mail for them to cast votes. This ballots have not been requested, they were just sent. People are already showing how they have received ballots that are not theirs. And also vote by mail is very easy to manipulate. Supper easy, with the right people and a bit of patience, a single person can alter more than 100 votes.
But accepting that there will be fraud, Let me give them a small number of fraud each.
Now we have
1% voter fraud in person voting.
1% voter fraud by Absentee Ballots.
1% voter fraud voting by mail.
A quick engine search told me that only 138,884,643 people voted in the 2016 election. How true is that, I do not know, ask the internet.
I was generous and ask what is 2% of 138,884,643. The result is 2,777,692.
Let’s say Biden wins election night with 1,000,000 votes, but the vote by mail count says Trump wins by 2,000,000.
Oy Vey! What now?
Look I do not have clear reasoning all the time. But this is what makes me think about plausibilities.
Edit: Just in case it was not obvious. I tried to keep the person wining the election within the margin of error from Voter Fraud. Meaning both will cause the other party of voter fraud, within the margin of error. Who will win?
And if Biden Wins will Republicans accept it? If Trump Wins will Democrats accept it? Or will we have another four years of fighting each other?
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F_Marturana
Guest
In my state I have to officially request a ballot.
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TMC
Guest
This is not universally true. It is true for some states, I think, but most states still make the voter request a ballot.
I don’t know if this is true or not, but I don’t see it as much easier than manipulating in person voting. Also, why would this happen in this election, if it has not happened in the previous 40 or so presidential elections?
I think that the vast majority will accept the result, but that we will have lots of years of fighting regardless.
LeafByNiggle
Well-known member
That was not the meaning of the post at all. The claim was only that “some” of them are dumb enough to try. This is no broad claim on “anyone who supports Trump”. People that might fall for an illegal suggestion can be found in both parties. The PaulinVA’s post did not say more than that.How rude,but pretty much what I suspected.The Dems re anyone who supports Trump as stupid.That you posted this comment,should I assume you think the same?
That Trump enjoys getting a reaction from his illegal suggestions is no excuse for those illegal suggestions. In fact, it casts some very real doubt on his sense of morality and justice.
You left out a very important and still powerful group - those dedicated public servants who put the good of the nation above their own political leanings. Yes, there are still plenty of them, and they do investigate voter fraud.
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LeafByNiggle
Well-known member
The first is not a bad reaction. It is a correct reaction. Election officials have said what Trump asked his followers to do is in fact a fellony. Your second point is a misreading of the tweet in question. It said “some”, not “all”.
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Dovekin
Guest
Why 2%? Your made up numbers only suggest 1% of total votes? No big deal.
The question to ask is if the vote count is within the margin of error for the process used. What % of fraud would mean the vote count might be wrong?
The polling system in this country is terrible, as anyone who remembers 2000 can attest. People do their best to get an accurate count. This 2018 aarticle discusses accuracy of ballot counts.
Recounts are usually performed if the accuracy is within the margin of error, which is defined by local law. This is usually 1% or smaller. The state Secretary of State is responsible for certifying the elections accuracy, so it is up to them largely. This can be a problem, as when the Secretary of State won the election to be governor.
Most government workers are honest and want to get an accurate count. The larger the election, the more likely it is that errors will cancel each other out. But the only way to be fully confident is if one candidate wins the election by a number clearly outside the margin of error. If Trump wins 64% of the vote in California, fraud likely is involved. (see Belarus) But most of the fraud being discussed in mail voting is probably not on that level, not enough to make much difference.
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Rockoh22
Guest
Causing voter fraud by mail is very easy.
Take a subject that wants to do this, let’s say he works with the mail system. He collects all the ballots by mail. Takes them home, opens each envelope in a way that causes no tampering. (There are ways by the way, very easy) and then he simply does something to the votes. Either makes them void, or changes their vote, or simply does not send it.
After the malicious fraud is done, takes the mail in voting ballots and places them in the mail, in different locations, different days, so that they will not cause any suspicion. This was the case in a particular election, where many ballots were found in one mail box at the same time. I think that is the one I posted.
Anywho. How many people can do that? How many ballots can be changed that are acceptable? The answer is mostly. We do not want any vote altered.
Many states will have a legit and as fraud free as possible. But what about those states that are sending the ballots to people with out asking for them. I can not remember, but there was a particular place that sent the ballots already pre filled. With out people asking for it. SO all they had to do was to sign it, and vote, because the information was there.
Will this cause mass fraud? Look I do not know. But there WILL be fraud. And it will be contested.
Who do people say will win the mail in Vote? Trump or Biden?
Take a subject that wants to do this, let’s say he works with the mail system. He collects all the ballots by mail. Takes them home, opens each envelope in a way that causes no tampering. (There are ways by the way, very easy) and then he simply does something to the votes. Either makes them void, or changes their vote, or simply does not send it.
After the malicious fraud is done, takes the mail in voting ballots and places them in the mail, in different locations, different days, so that they will not cause any suspicion. This was the case in a particular election, where many ballots were found in one mail box at the same time. I think that is the one I posted.
Anywho. How many people can do that? How many ballots can be changed that are acceptable? The answer is mostly. We do not want any vote altered.
Many states will have a legit and as fraud free as possible. But what about those states that are sending the ballots to people with out asking for them. I can not remember, but there was a particular place that sent the ballots already pre filled. With out people asking for it. SO all they had to do was to sign it, and vote, because the information was there.
Will this cause mass fraud? Look I do not know. But there WILL be fraud. And it will be contested.
Who do people say will win the mail in Vote? Trump or Biden?
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ThinkingSapien
Guest
I believe twitter is flagging his tweets that say this. Facebook has been removing videos of the statements
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Dovekin
Guest
Yes, but to what degree. Altering mail as you describe it would probably be the largest breach of the US postal system ever if there were enough of it to have an impact on a statewide election.
I think you are referring to the state sending out ballot rquests with voter id info, not ballots. I suppose not having an obscure # on the form makes it more secure, doesn’t everyone love passwords and captcha? The harder it is to fill out a form, the more secure it is. I had to root around to find my voter id to fill in my ballot request, something your person stealing the mail might have a hard time doing.
Normally Republicans have a slight advantage among mail in votes. In this election, Biden is likely to win the mail in vote because Trump is opposed to it. Some Republicans were even concerned that opposition to mail in voting would discourage some Republicans from voting! (that is why Trump said the mail in votes in Florida were OK)
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TMC
Guest
You say this but then describe a pretty complicated and difficult process. Regardless, it remains true that we have been doing vote by mail for 40+ presidential elections without serious problems. Still don’t see why that would change now.
Traditionally the mail votes break for the GOP. Not sure if that will be true this time or not. The elderly are more likely to vote by mail, and they trend GOP. The military votes by mail, but its not clear which way that vote will go this time. Will other people vote by mail in large numbers? I guess we will have to wait and see.
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TMC
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Interesting. Maybe I fell for one of those things “everybody knows,” but which turns out not to be so.
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