Trump Thread (cont.)

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But a lot of the recent state polls show Trump doing well in the next two weeks.
Nate Silver has tweeted that “1237 not impossible”, but he also predicts Trump will get to 1160 and:
1160 assumes that Trump:
  • Cleans up in the Northeast
  • Narrowly loses Indiana
  • Gets about half of Calif. delegates
twitter.com/natesilver538/status/720324761910251520

Here is the projection on FiveThirtyEight. If you read the article three weeks weeks this “panel of eight experts” put Trump at getting 1208 delegates, but with a serious of losses since that projection it is not as it was. They now project 1155 or 1159.

By the way, they note that Wyoming is on the 16th of April, which is before the New York primary.
Cruz will probably win the majority if not perhaps even all of the remaining delegates there.
 
Nate silver also predicted long ago that trump would not win a single primary.

Right now, cruz is surging, ehhh, albeit downward.
But when was that? When Donald Trump first announced when he was running for president perhaps?

How is Cruz doing that?
 
journalgazette.net/news/us/Cruz-s-momentum-after-winning-Wisconsin-gone-12559583

Cruz has lost points in the polls and is expected to lose all upcoming primaries. His win in Colorado has solidified his image as an establishment insider.
Cruz not doing well in the Northeast, yes in the polling now, once he campaigns more in some of the states, time will tell what will happen, but Trump sweeping those Northeastern states is taken into calculation into the projection I posted the link to.
 
journalgazette.net/news/us/Cruz-s-momentum-after-winning-Wisconsin-gone-12559583

Cruz has lost points in the polls and is expected to lose all upcoming primaries. His win in Colorado has solidified his image as an establishment insider.
The debacle in Colorado really makes me fear a trump presidency. His main selling point is supposed to be his business smarts and yet he did not even have the competency to organize his campaign enough to compete in Colorado . I would also like to hear him occasionally address the issues facing this country rather than constantly whining how he’s been mistreated . If Trump gets the nomination I may, for the first time in my life, sit out a presidential election
 
When it comes to politics, I couldn’t accurately predict that any particular candidate will put his shoes on before leaving the house.

But I will say I watched the Repub dinner thing last night. Missed most of Kasich and Cruz because I had a visitor. But whoever prepared Trump did an incredibly good job in my opinion. Some people would see it as “bragging”. But that’s what all of the candidates do; point out their past accomplishments.

However, he told some stories out of his business life that were almost like “parables”. It was actually quite interesting to learn what he did with that old Commodore hotel, turning it into the very building where the dinner was being held, and changing the whole neighborhood as a result. Never would I have guessed you could rehab an old building by taking it “down to the steel” while still preserving some beautiful ceilings inside it. The details of the skating rink construction were interesting as well. I had no idea before that story how skating rinks are constructed.

And it all came down to 1) New York is a fabulous place with better people than Cruz thinks, 2) I got some major and really neat things done, against political opposition and stupid rules, before predicted completion time and under budget, (and, under that, “I could do it with the whole country”)

I thought it was really done well. Whoever wrote that deserves a bonus.

As I said, I only saw a little bit of my guy, Kasich. He said the things he needed to say, but it didn’t have that “storytelling/parable” quality. I saw even less of Cruz, but it seemed to be “reheated Cruz”, not very interesting.
 
The debacle in Colorado really makes me fear a trump presidency. His main selling point is supposed to be his business smarts and yet he did not even have the competency to organize his campaign enough to compete in Colorado . I would also like to hear him occasionally address the issues facing this country rather than constantly whining how he’s been mistreated . If Trump gets the nomination I may, for the first time in my life, sit out a presidential election
Trump and Cruz are running two totally different campaigns. Trump is out trying to win people’s votes, and Cruz is hoping against hope that he can get delegates to betray trump and join him on the second ballot. So the perspective of the two campaigns are drastically different.

The political insider game of choosing delegates favors those close to the establishment. It’s a very convoluted process where those who want to be delegates sometimes have to apply a year ahead of time. In Colorado some trump delegates were refused entry; and delegates were only allowed 10 seconds to speak.

Trump is using Colorado as an opportunity to say, let’s not do things this way anymore. Let the people vote and let their votes count for something.

If he indeed comes short of the magic number before convention, I have no doubt you will see his negotiation skills come into play. He’ll know how to win enough unbound delegates to his side. But right now that’s not his focus as is cruz’s. Trump is in stage one fighting for people’s votes mode. Stage two negotiation for delegates mode will come later if necessary.

He did get Megyn Kelly to come to trump tower, didn’t he?
 
Not quite sure how you figure that. Don’t think he had anything to do with the system set up by the party in Colorado. The “establishment” does not like Cruz at all.
Cruz’s poll numbers dropped drastically after wisconsin. He’s supposed to have the momentum, but there is none. He’s been bragging about how he followed the rules and won the delegates in colorado, but the optics out on the street say he won without the people having a vote. The psychology among mainstream people is not helpful for cruz.

The establishment may not like cruz, but they hate trump enough to want to help cruz. People see that and are tired of such anti-trump sentiments.
 
Nearly two in three Republican voters (63 percent) want Donald Trump to support the Republican nominee if he does not get the party’s nomination, even if he arrives in Cleveland with the most delegates but short of the magic number of 1,237, according to the results of a national CBS News poll out Thursday.
In the poll of 1,098 registered voters, one in three said they think Trump should continue his quest for the White House even if he is denied the Republican nomination, in the form of an independent or third-party run. That share jumps to 63 percent among Trump supporters.
So, two-thirds of GOP voters want Trump to give it up if doesn’t win it outright, but two-thirds of his supporters want him to keep on trucking.

Good luck with your primary, Republicans!
 
I’m just afraid they’ll go with Kasich. I can’t stand Kasich. He is definitely a “Washington insider.”
 
Why, Lily? You are going to vote democrat anyway.
True, but we’re not guaranteed a Democratic winner. I dislike Kasich the most of the three Republicans. If a Republican wins, I’d rather it be Trump or, heaven forbid, Cruz.
 
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