Trump Thread (cont.)

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Does a big Trump win in NY (and surrounding NE states) mark an end for Cruz?:confused:
 
Not unless Trump gets to 1,237 delegates, which is probably impossible.
 
Lily_Bernans said:
Not unless Trump gets to 1,237 delegates, which is probably impossible.
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It is still possible.

Remember, if he makes, say, Kasich or litt…oops Rubio 😃 his VP, he would probably be way over 1237.

Having said that, I haven’t done the math for Cruz, TBH.
 
Agh! Lost my post. Oh well.

What I was saying before noting the previous thread was closed is that I think Donohue has a point. To some, Trump is the “blue collar billionaire”. Maybe he really does share their thoughts, and maybe he doesn’t, but he tells it that way.

I have long thought Trump could make real inroads into the black vote if he does it right. But he’ll have to do it personally and appeal to the right motivations. There is virtually no difference between blue collar whites and blue collar blacks other than the fact that blue collar whites are more used to breaking with the Dem party when given a reason to do it. But this could be the time when a lot of working blacks realize the Dem party has nothing for them, just as a lot of working whites have in this election cycle. We’ll see if Trump capitalizes on that.
 
Whoever is “queenofheartscv”, could you please stop with the demagoguery? This is supposed to be a discussion forum.
 
Luigi_Daniele said:
It is still possible.

Remember, if he makes, say, Kasich or litt…oops Rubio 😃 his VP, he would probably be way over 1237.

Having said that, I haven’t done the math for Cruz, TBH.
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The math I’ve seen even giving Trump rosy scenarios shows he is likely to fall short. And I just heard a lady a bit ago say even if he’s at 1236 there will be a fight to deny him.

Kasich and Rubio have both ruled out VP. Kasich in fact is on record as saying he would be the worst VP ever and Rubio is finishing his Senate career (if you want to call it that) and says next Jan he will be a private citizen.

But at least on CAF Trump is the first to have his candidate thread cont. So I guess that’s something. 👍
 
Luigi_Daniele said:
Does a big Trump win in NY (and surrounding NE states) mark an end for Cruz?:confused:
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No, I don’t think so.

I am resigned to Trump winning in NY and probably pretty much everywhere else in the East. But that was expected all along even by Cruz. Maybe Kasich could make a dent.

I saw kind of a weird story about how Kasich might reallly do well in NY and Pennsylvania based on how the districts are tallied. The popular vote/percentage, particularly statewide, does not matter that much. Kasich is in second in a number of districts (and in first in some) in NY and PA. (remember he did well in NH, right, I actually forgot that). Cruz is 3rd, but we still have a week or so - the NY values thing is a problem. But there are lot of GOP voters who don’t like Trump, even in the East, so don’t count Cruz out. I would not be surprised to see Cruz do ok - not great.

I say it goes to California before we know where Trump and Cruz stand with respect to the 1237 and nomination. If Trump doesn’t get 1237 outright or on the first ballot, I believe the nomination goes to Cruz. Trump is at 70% unpopularity, for some reason his negatives are climbing. I think Trump as nominee is suicide. The bigger problem is that voters either love or hate Trump - not much wriggle room there between the groups, within the party or beyond it. By this time in 2012 Romney had pretty much united the GOP.
 
Sy_Noe said:
The math I’ve seen even giving Trump rosy scenarios shows he is likely to fall short. And I just heard a lady a bit ago say even if he’s at 1236 there will be a fight to deny him.
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That’s possible. But if that’s the case, quite a large chunk of the GOP won’t vote Republican in Nov.

Fortunately the chances of 1236, or 1230 or 1220, on the first ballot are extremely slim.
 
Peter_J said:
That’s possible. But if that’s the case, quite a large chunk of the GOP won’t vote Republican in Nov.

Fortunately the chances of 1236, or 1230 or 1220, on the first ballot are extremely slim.
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Why would Trump supporters vote for Cruz?
 
Peter_J said:
That’s possible. But if that’s the case, quite a large chunk of the GOP won’t vote Republican in Nov.

Fortunately the chances of 1236, or 1230 or 1220, on the first ballot are extremely slim.
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Unless his future VP releases his (the FVP) delegates to Trump, no?:confused:
 
FollowChrist34 said:
No, I don’t think so.

I am resigned to Trump winning in NY and probably pretty much everywhere else in the East. But that was expected all along even by Cruz. Maybe Kasich could make a dent.

I saw kind of a weird story about how Kasich might reallly do well in NY and Pennsylvania based on how the districts are tallied. The popular vote/percentage, particularly statewide, does not matter that much. Kasich is in second in a number of districts (and in first in some) in NY and PA. (remember he did well in NH, right, I actually forgot that). Cruz is 3rd, but we still have a week or so - the NY values thing is a problem. But there are lot of GOP voters who don’t like Trump, even in the East, so don’t count Cruz out. I would not be surprised to see Cruz do ok - not great.

I say it goes to California before we know where Trump and Cruz stand with respect to the 1237 and nomination. If Trump doesn’t get 1237 outright or on the first ballot, I believe the nomination goes to Cruz. Trump is at 70% unpopularity, for some reason his negatives are climbing. I think Trump as nominee is suicide. The bigger problem is that voters either love or hate Trump - not much wriggle room there between the groups, within the party or beyond it. By this time in 2012 Romney had pretty much united the GOP.
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So is Cruz.

And Cruz has run a dirty campaign but it goes unnoticed for some reason.

Coordinating with Superpacs which they aren’t supposed to do.

And we know how he pulled the chair out from Carson.

Plus he lies every time I see him give s speech.
 
queenofheartscv said:
Demagoguery? you mean this?

mic.com/articles/132670/ted-cruz-hates-new-york-values-unless-he-s-raising-money-from-gay-donors-in-manhattan#.84u3SV9wu

Ted Cruz Hates “New York Values” Unless He’s Raising Money From Gay Donors in Manhattan
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Well, I think it is ok if gay people vote for Cruz, the GOP, right? In France, there were gay people who protested gay marriage. Identity politics is on the way out, be it women, minorities or gays. I think some gay people are actually conservatives.

Besides Cruz just said overturning gay marriage was not one of his top three priorities, which I am ok with. And he is still pushing religious liberty here - defending the rights of those who don’t agree with gay marriage on religious grounds in particular situations. All in all, I would call this pretty darn ‘New York values’ territory for Cruz - a plus.
 
FollowChrist34 said:
Well, I think it is ok if gay people vote for Cruz, the GOP, right? In France, there were gay people who protested gay marriage. Identity politics is on the way out, be it women, minorities or gays. I think some gay people are actually conservatives.

Besides Cruz just said overturning gay marriage was not one of his top three priorities, which I am ok with. And he is still pushing religious liberty here - defending the rights of those who don’t agree with gay marriage on religious grounds in particular situations. All in all, I would call this pretty darn ‘New York values’ territory for Cruz - a plus.
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Of course. There is nothing I don’t agree with in your post. I just wanted to point out the hypocrisy in cruz when he made that NY values statement. He has a holier-than-thou attitude that will turn off many people not just those in NY.
 
Luigi_Daniele said:
It is still possible.

Remember, if he makes, say, Kasich or litt…oops Rubio 😃 his VP, he would probably be way over 1237.

Having said that, I haven’t done the math for Cruz, TBH.
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Neither Kasich nor Rubio would ever go near Trump.
 
queenofheartscv said:
Of course. There is nothing I don’t agree with in your post. I just wanted to point out the hypocrisy in cruz when he made that NY values statement. He has a holier-than-thou attitude that will turn off many people not just those in NY.
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New York values are probably not all that different from Seattle values or San Francisco values or Boston values. 😃 I get where he is coming from. I think most voters in New York do too. Those values annoy me too - it just means liberal to me. If someone said that about Seattle, I would love it actually. I certainly would not feel I had to defend liberal Seattle values.

I agree with you that this is not playing well in New York, but I wonder if it has legs. How offended are Republicans in New York. There are not that many of them anyway. Cruz is too far right for New York, bottom line.

I say Trump wins but Kasich pulls moderates - Cruz pulls conservative anti-Trump votes - we move on to California.
 
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