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queenofheartscv
Guest
If hillary is truly that far ahead in the polls, you’d think the media will chill a little in their efforts to campaign for hillary day and night.
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Peter_Plato
Guest
And stop Photoshopping additional attendees into Hillary’s rally shots to make the crowds look larger than they actually are.If hillary is truly that far ahead in the polls, you’d think the media will chill a little in their efforts to campaign for hillary day and night.
Desperate times, I guess.
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_Abyssinia
Guest
Always correct election forecast model predicts Trump win, 51%-48%
washingtonexaminer.com/always-correct-election-forecast-model-predicts-trump-win-51-48/article/2599203
washingtonexaminer.com/always-correct-election-forecast-model-predicts-trump-win-51-48/article/2599203
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_Abyssinia
Guest
App maker: Trump will win election
usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker—trump-win-election/88640044/
This reminds me of what pollster Kellyanne Conway says in this article about a “secret Trump vote”:
Trump pollster: ‘There’s a big hidden Trump vote’
washingtonexaminer.com/trump-pollster-theres-a-big-hidden-trump-vote/article/2598805
usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker—trump-win-election/88640044/
This reminds me of what pollster Kellyanne Conway says in this article about a “secret Trump vote”:
Trump pollster: ‘There’s a big hidden Trump vote’
washingtonexaminer.com/trump-pollster-theres-a-big-hidden-trump-vote/article/2598805
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estesbob
Guest
One wonders if are going to see a variation of the “Bradley effect”App maker: Trump will win election
usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker—trump-win-election/88640044/
This reminds me of what pollster Kellyanne Conway says in this article about a “secret Trump vote”:
Trump pollster: ‘There’s a big hidden Trump vote’
washingtonexaminer.com/trump-pollster-theres-a-big-hidden-trump-vote/article/2598805
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Al_Moritz
Guest
Hope springs eternal for Trump fans, apparently.App maker: Trump will win election
usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker—trump-win-election/88640044/
This reminds me of what pollster Kellyanne Conway says in this article about a “secret Trump vote”:
Trump pollster: ‘There’s a big hidden Trump vote’
washingtonexaminer.com/trump-pollster-theres-a-big-hidden-trump-vote/article/2598805
No, there isn’t a hidden Trump vote. See Stuart Stevens, campaign manager for Romney 2012:
There Aren’t Enough White Voters for GOP Win
From his article:
*But still the myth survives that there are these masses of untapped white voters just waiting for the right candidate. Call it the Lost Tribes of the Amazon theory: If only you paddle far enough up the river and bang the drum loud enough, these previously hidden voters will gather to the river’s edge. The simple truth is that there simply aren’t enough white voters in the America of 2016 to win a national election without also getting a substantial share of the non-white vote. Romney won 17 percent of the non-white vote. Depending on white voter turnout, a Republican needs between 25 percent and 35 percent of the non-white vote to win. RealClearPolitics has a handy tool so you can play with the percentages.
*
Also note a fact that Stevens could not yet know at the time he wrote the article (March 2016): Hillary now leads among white colllege-educated women, the first time for a Democrat since Harry Truman (!). That makes the myth of the ‘missing white voter’ even harder to believe.
And non-white minorities are turned off by Trump big time as should be known by now.
And as far as online polls go that supposedly bring out the hidden Trump vote: in the latest NBC/SurveyMonkey poll Hillary leads by 10 points. So there you have it.
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Peter_J
Guest
Never! Trump is the most true-blue Republican since Sarah Palin.Clearly Trump is just being progressive and smart by using a tried and true leftist, relativist and liberal technique.
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Millie123
Guest
bigstory.ap.org/article/82da0641576240a7806b7e949f8b4041/mcconnell-gop-chances-keep-senate-are-very-dicey
McConnell: GOP chances to keep Senate are ‘very dicey’
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Thursday that GOP prospects for keeping control of the Senate after the November elections are “very dicey,” sounding an alarm amid mounting Republican concerns about presidential nominee Donald Trump,
Speaking to a Louisville-area civic group in his home state, McConnell said Senate Republicans were going to be “on defense” in this year’s election, regardless of who led the ticket as the party’s presidential candidate.
Twenty-four GOP-held seats are on the ballot this year, compared with 10 for Democrats, he noted. McConnell was promoted to majority leader two years ago when a Republican surge wrested Senate control from Democrats.
McConnell did not mention Trump as being a drag on Republican down-ballot races, but he chided Trump’s campaign tactics. The Kentucky senator said he hopes Trump “settles down and follows the script.”
When asked by a reporter about Trump’s comments labeling President Barack Obama as the “founder” of the Islamic State group, McConnell replied: “I’m hoping that we can make this election about Hillary Clinton. I think if we do, we can win.”
With the election less than three months away, McConnell said Republicans are in “a dogfight,” and listed GOP-held seats in New Hampshire, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and Indiana as “very competitive.”
“I may or may not be calling the shots next year,” McConnell said.
Democrats need to pick up five seats to take back control of the Senate, or four if they also keep control of the White House, since the vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.
McConnell warned that if Republicans lose their grip on the Senate after the November election, their ability “to impact judicial appointments will be considerably diminished.”
McConnell: GOP chances to keep Senate are ‘very dicey’
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Thursday that GOP prospects for keeping control of the Senate after the November elections are “very dicey,” sounding an alarm amid mounting Republican concerns about presidential nominee Donald Trump,
Speaking to a Louisville-area civic group in his home state, McConnell said Senate Republicans were going to be “on defense” in this year’s election, regardless of who led the ticket as the party’s presidential candidate.
Twenty-four GOP-held seats are on the ballot this year, compared with 10 for Democrats, he noted. McConnell was promoted to majority leader two years ago when a Republican surge wrested Senate control from Democrats.
McConnell did not mention Trump as being a drag on Republican down-ballot races, but he chided Trump’s campaign tactics. The Kentucky senator said he hopes Trump “settles down and follows the script.”
When asked by a reporter about Trump’s comments labeling President Barack Obama as the “founder” of the Islamic State group, McConnell replied: “I’m hoping that we can make this election about Hillary Clinton. I think if we do, we can win.”
With the election less than three months away, McConnell said Republicans are in “a dogfight,” and listed GOP-held seats in New Hampshire, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and Indiana as “very competitive.”
“I may or may not be calling the shots next year,” McConnell said.
Democrats need to pick up five seats to take back control of the Senate, or four if they also keep control of the White House, since the vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate.
McConnell warned that if Republicans lose their grip on the Senate after the November election, their ability “to impact judicial appointments will be considerably diminished.”
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_Abyssinia
Guest
Do you think the maker of that app is a Trump supporter?Hope springs eternal for Trump fans, apparently.
No, there isn’t a hidden Trump vote. See Stuart Stevens, campaign manager for Romney 2012:
There Aren’t Enough White Voters for GOP Win
From his article:
*But still the myth survives that there are these masses of untapped white voters just waiting for the right candidate. Call it the Lost Tribes of the Amazon theory: If only you paddle far enough up the river and bang the drum loud enough, these previously hidden voters will gather to the river’s edge. The simple truth is that there simply aren’t enough white voters in the America of 2016 to win a national election without also getting a substantial share of the non-white vote. Romney won 17 percent of the non-white vote. Depending on white voter turnout, a Republican needs between 25 percent and 35 percent of the non-white vote to win. RealClearPolitics has a handy tool so you can play with the percentages.
*
Also note a fact that Stevens could not yet know at the time he wrote the article (March 2016): Hillary now leads among white colllege-educated women, the first time for a Democrat since Harry Truman (!). That makes the myth of the ‘missing white voter’ even harder to believe.
And non-white minorities are turned off by Trump big time as should be known by now.
And as far as online polls go that supposedly bring out the hidden Trump vote: in the latest NBC/SurveyMonkey poll Hillary leads by 10 points. So there you have it.
Romney’s campaign got it so wrong that Romney went into the election thinking he would win apparently: slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/11/why_romney_was_surprised_to_lose_his_campaign_had_the_wrong_numbers_bad.html
They got things disastrously wrong. This was the campaign that Stuart Stevens was the campaign manager for. Doesn’t mean what Stuart Stevens says in the article you posted is wrong, but it would be fantastic for the Trump campaign if there was a high minority turnout of support for him, but that is doubtful. Check out these articles regarding White voters:
a growing body of evidence suggests that there is still a path, albeit a narrow one, for Mr. Trump to win without gains among nonwhite voters.
mobile.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.htmlNew analysis by The Upshot shows that millions more white, older working-class voters went to the polls in 2012 than was found by exit polls on Election Day. This raises the prospect that Mr. Trump has a larger pool of potential voters than generally believed.
The good news for Trump is that nationally, there’s plenty of room for white turnout to improve. If non-Hispanic whites had turned out at the same rate in 2012 that they did in 1992, there would have been 8.8 million additional white voters — far more than Obama’s 5 million-vote margin of victory. But before Democrats panic, here’s the catch, and it’s a doozy for Trump: These “missing” white voters disproportionately live in states that won’t matter in a close presidential race.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/missing-white-voters-might-help-trump-but-less-so-where-he-needs-it/There were only three states where the estimated number of “missing” white voters exceeded Obama’s margin of victory in 2012: Florida, Nevada and Ohio. In the case of Florida, Trump would need to win only 58 percent of “missing” whites to erase Obama’s 2012 margin; in Ohio he would need 75 percent, and in Nevada he would need 89 percent.
Florida, Ohio and Nevada make up 53 electoral votes: state.1keydata.com/state-electoral-votes.php
If he increases White Turnout in those three states, who knows what could happen…
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Al_Moritz
Guest
But here’s the problem in the quotes you gave:If he increases White Turnout in those three states, who knows what could happen…
But before Democrats panic, here’s the catch, and it’s a doozy for Trump: These “missing” white voters disproportionately live in states that won’t matter in a close presidential race.
And:
There were only three states where the estimated number of “missing” white voters exceeded Obama’s margin of victory in 2012: Florida, Nevada and Ohio.
The problem though is also about other states:
**These three states are making a Trump win basically impossible
**
From the link:
Four new NBC News/Marist College polls released Friday show Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leading her Republican rival by five points in Florida, nine points in North Carolina and double digits in Colorado (14) and Virginia (13). All four states have been battlegrounds in recent presidential elections.
And really, it’s those last two numbers that show just how massively difficult Trump’s path to the presidency is right now. Because without Colorado and Virginia — and a third state where he trails by double digits, Pennsylvania — he’s all but sunk.
National polls have gone up and down, and a few this week even show Trump within striking distance of Clinton. But national polls aren’t what matter; the Electoral College does. And the numbers in Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania are basically prohibitive for Trump right now.
According to Real Clear Politics, the last four polls in Pennsylvania have shown Trump down by 10 to 11 points. In Colorado, the last three polls show margins of 10 to 14 points. In Virginia, Trump has trailed by double digits in the last two polls and by as much as seven and nine points in other recent polls.
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PRmerger
Guest
And because there is so much to bash Trump about.No Way! They are going to double down on bashing Trump because there is not much to praise about Clinton .
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randomuser
Guest
Isn’t that the reason why PRO-LIFE Catholics are “supposed” to be voting for Trump, since he’s not actually pro-life but because of SCOTUS and Roe v. Wade? I still don’t understand how a Democratic-controlled Senate will approve a “pro-life” judge Trump nominates. We already have a SCOTUS nominee who has yet to be approved.McConnell warned that if Republicans lose their grip on the Senate after the November election, their ability “to impact judicial appointments will be considerably diminished.”
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PRmerger
Guest
This article ^^.
Will be posting that on Facebook to discuss with all my prolife Catholic friends from my parish who have been arguing that Trump will help the prolife movement.
Trump will be no friend to the unborn if, God forbid, he is elected.
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Peter_Plato
Guest
He’s beating progressives at their own game by using their own play book against them.Never! Trump is the most true-blue Republican since Sarah Palin.
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Thorolfr
Guest
The people of Connecticut had better watch out. Trump might never forgive them:
“You know, we are making a big move for the state of Connecticut, just so you understand,” Trump said. “Normally that wouldn’t happen because a Republican, in theory, doesn’t win Connecticut.”
He reflected on the outcome of a loss in Connecticut, and in other swing states where recent polls have shown Clinton with an advantage over Trump.
cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-we-are-making-a-big-move-for-connecticut/“Can you imagine how badly I’ll feel if I spend all of that money, all of this energy, all of this time and lost?” Trump said. “I will never ever forgive the people of Connecticut. I will never forgive the people of Florida and Pennsylvania and Ohio, but I love them anyway. We’ll see. I think we’re gonna do very well.”
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Millie123
Guest
If it wasn’t for the fact that Trump is a 70 year old man, the way he sounds in this instance, I’d think that he was a troubled adolescent in perpetual angst.The people of Connecticut had better watch out. Trump might never forgive them:
cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-we-are-making-a-big-move-for-connecticut/
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Michael68
Guest
And Hillary Clinton is a friend to the unborn?This article ^^.
Will be posting that on Facebook to discuss with all my prolife Catholic friends from my parish who have been arguing that Trump will help the prolife movement.
Trump will be no friend to the unborn if, God forbid, he is elected.
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_Abyssinia
Guest
I have noted these words from the article you posted, “right now”. The election isn’t now, it’s in November, and all kinds of things can happen from now until then. Dukakis was up 17 points, presumably nationally, coming out of the convention in 1988 and obviously he didn’t end up winning.But here’s the problem in the quotes you gave:
But before Democrats panic, here’s the catch, and it’s a doozy for Trump: These “missing” white voters disproportionately live in states that won’t matter in a close presidential race.
And:
There were only three states where the estimated number of “missing” white voters exceeded Obama’s margin of victory in 2012: Florida, Nevada and Ohio.
The problem though is also about other states:
These three states are making a Trump win basically impossible
From the link:
Four new NBC News/Marist College polls released Friday show Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leading her Republican rival by five points in Florida, nine points in North Carolina and double digits in Colorado (14) and Virginia (13). All four states have been battlegrounds in recent presidential elections.
And really, it’s those last two numbers that show just how massively difficult Trump’s path to the presidency is right now. Because without Colorado and Virginia — and a third state where he trails by double digits, Pennsylvania — he’s all but sunk.
National polls have gone up and down, and a few this week even show Trump within striking distance of Clinton. But national polls aren’t what matter; the Electoral College does. And the numbers in Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania are basically prohibitive for Trump right now.
According to Real Clear Politics, the last four polls in Pennsylvania have shown Trump down by 10 to 11 points. In Colorado, the last three polls show margins of 10 to 14 points. In Virginia, Trump has trailed by double digits in the last two polls and by as much as seven and nine points in other recent polls.
The fact is, what the two articles I posted reveal, is that there is room for improvement in White turnout and it’s not some myth that there are millions of so called “missing” voters. If these voters turnout for Trump, it could make all the difference for Trump in those states.
By the way, the Real Clear Politics average was way off compared to what Trump actually won by in Pennsylvania during the primary:
Pennsylvania - Real Clear Politics Average: Trump +21.8 - Final Results +36.0 = Real Clear Politics was off by 14.2 points.
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_republican_presidential_primary-3788.html
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Peter_J
Guest
“Supposed to” might not mean very much in questions of supporting Trump. If anything, I generally expect Trump to mock people who think about what they are “supposed” to do.Isn’t that the reason why PRO-LIFE Catholics are “supposed” to be voting for Trump,
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Vouthon
Guest
If this is even half - true, then the entire human race is doomed for the next 4 years.App maker: Trump will win election
usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker—trump-win-election/88640044/
This reminds me of what pollster Kellyanne Conway says in this article about a “secret Trump vote”:
Trump pollster: ‘There’s a big hidden Trump vote’
washingtonexaminer.com/trump-pollster-theres-a-big-hidden-trump-vote/article/2598805
Say goodbye to global security measures that have been in place since WWII and kept the peace.
Say hello to useless trade wars between the great powers, macho authoritarianism, the breakdown of the rule of law in the US…
The consequences of a Trump victory are too horrifying for my brain to cope with. It would make Brexit look like a drop in the ocean by comparison.
We live in very frightening and uncertain times.
Truly, I dislike Hillary and don’t want her in the White House but I am praying that Trump doesn’t get in. Novenas, the rosary, you name it. I’m praying harder than I’ve ever prayed about any single issue in my entire life.
I don’t positively desire a Clinton presidency bit I’m not going to lie: I do negatively speaking desire that Trump loses the White House by a landslide so as to make populist nativism of the kind he represents an extinct beast in American and world politics for the forseeable future.
If God does not heed the prayers of millions in regard to Trump then I must conclude that the Almighty is punishing us all, collectively, for our sins.
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