Ukraine (cont.)

  • Thread starter Thread starter Robert_Bay
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
Seamus_L said:
Fresh clashes in Donetsk and Luhansk as Pro-Russian demonstrators attack government buildings voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_06/Turchynov-cancels-visit-to-Lithuania-over-Donetsk-Lugansk-unrest-3689/
Click to expand...
Yes. I think we have known two things for a long time.

First, that Russia is going to seize eastern and southern Ukraine.
Second, that Russia is the world’s foremost expert nation at disseminating disinformation in order to accomplish its goals. It’s KGB agents, now renamed FSB, did not even shrink from slandering Pope Pius XII and other churchmen, calling them “fascists” and “Nazi sympathizers”. Now they’re using it against the Ukrainian government. Same trick.

None of this is a surprise.
 
Buildings taken over in 3 cities now, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv, and activists saying they will begin choosing there own deputies tomorrow as they do not recognize the acting government in Kiev.
l
 
Unfortunately, it was bound to happen. Remove a government elected by, a fairly evenly split electorate, and the other side with not like it.

Why they’ve waited nearly 3 months to re-elect, is definitely not helping. The new elections should have been carried out as soon as feasibly possible after the over throwing of the government - and still another 7 weeks to go. Move the election forward.
 
pepipop said:
Why they’ve waited nearly 3 months to re-elect, is definitely not helping. The new elections should have been carried out as soon as feasibly possible after the over throwing of the government - and still another 7 weeks to go. Move the election forward.
Click to expand...
I do agree with this and hope they can find a way to move elections earlier. The unfortunate part is, though, that big elections take considerable time to organize, and I think the central government was trying to go about things the right way by waiting until May – that gives enough time for candidates to register and campaign and issues to be debated, proper voter registration lists to be established, etc. Rushed elections like the one held in Crimea are far more likely to have procedural or other issues, and the central government has repeatedly said that it wants to have free and completely fair elections, something that requires time. Hopefully they can find a way to speed up preparations and hold the elections earlier.

Saw an article that noted that the Security Service of Ukraine had announced on Saturday that it seized 300 automatic weapons and arrested 15 people who had been planning to launch armed attacks on April 10 on eastern Ukrainian government buildings. (That’s a ridiculous number of automatic weapons in a country where gun ownership and purchase is far more restricted than Second-Amendment America…) Guess that group decided to move up their plan? kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/turchynov-cancels-trip-to-lithuania-to-combat-pro-russian-separatists-in-donetsk-luhansk-342267.html
 
Ridgerunner said:
Yes. I think we have known two things for a long time.

First, that Russia is going to seize eastern and southern Ukraine.
Second, that Russia is the world’s foremost expert nation at disseminating disinformation in order to accomplish its goals. It’s KGB agents, now renamed FSB, did not even shrink from slandering Pope Pius XII and other churchmen, calling them “fascists” and “Nazi sympathizers”. Now they’re using it against the Ukrainian government. Same trick.

None of this is a surprise.
Click to expand...
Russia will take control of parts of the east and economically strangle the rest of Ukraine. The insurgency will slowly transform. It is as predictable as what has transpired. The bloodshed and the loss of innocent life that happens in an insurgency is a very sad and painful thought. It’s doubtful that any outside force will be able to stop it – other than God.

As was noted earlier, nothing good will come of this.
 
Seamus_L said:
Donetsk will have a referendum on joining Russia on May 11. en.ria.ru/world/20140407/189086720/Donetsk-Peoples-Council-Set-to-Hold-Referendum-to-Join-Russia.html
Code: 
                    Ukrainians can thank the Western invented Euromaidan for escalating tensions in there country.
Click to expand...
Nonsense. This is KGB/FSB all the way. The “referendum” will be as phony as every other Russian fig leaf.

It has to be admitted that the KGB/FSB has always been adept at blaming its victims for its wrongful acts. This is one time the west won’t buy it, just as it didn’t buy “round 1” of the KGB effort to defame Pius XII. (Too early, though it did better later with “The Deputy”) It’s too bad the west has to be awakened from its misperception of Russia in this way. The Ukrainians will be the ones paying the price this time. Europeans in the former soviet-occupied countries will be next unless Europe disengages itself from its foolish reliance on Russian gas and oil, and unless both it and the U.S. realize the KGB/FSB respects only strength and the courage to use it.

The only remaining question in the current Russian aggression-in-the-making is whether it will leave a rump state consisting of western Ukraine, as a long-term dependency on the West. Since Russia is taking over the best agricultural and industrial parts of Ukraine, as well as most of its gas reserves, the western part of Ukraine will be in terrible shape.
 
One way of looking at this is that Russia has been planning these recent actions all along. Another way is the possibility that the Euromaidan’s toppling of the government scared the heck out of Russian speakers in the far South and East of the country.
 
Ridgerunner said:
Nonsense. This is KGB/FSB all the way. The “referendum” will be as phony as every other Russian fig leaf.

It has to be admitted that the KGB/FSB has always been adept at blaming its victims for its wrongful acts. This is one time the west won’t buy it, just as it didn’t buy “round 1” of the KGB effort to defame Pius XII. (Too early, though it did better later with “The Deputy”) It’s too bad the west has to be awakened from its misperception of Russia in this way. The Ukrainians will be the ones paying the price this time. Europeans in the former soviet-occupied countries will be next unless Europe disengages itself from its foolish reliance on Russian gas and oil, and unless both it and the U.S. realize the KGB/FSB respects only strength and the courage to use it.

The only remaining question in the current Russian aggression-in-the-making is whether it will leave a rump state consisting of western Ukraine, as a long-term dependency on the West. Since Russia is taking over the best agricultural and industrial parts of Ukraine, as well as most of its gas reserves, the western part of Ukraine will be in terrible shape.
Click to expand...
Why totally ignore the people on the ground, are they all robots with no thinking processes, are they not allowed a say in what they want for their country/living standards and conditions? The people living in Ukraine have more to lose or gain than any outsiders, it is their country and their right to make their feelings known.

This was inevitable, after what occurred in February and a western ‘assisted’ riot in Kiev against the then elected government, which was overthrown. It would be a similar situation in most countries worldwide where two are more fractions are unhappy or wish totally different relationships or ways forward for their country. The divide in the Ukrainian population’s loyalties has been part of the Ukrainian way of life for years, but was being managed internally with no rioting/terrorist organisations or fighting.

Not anymore though after the West comes blundering in.
 
pepipop said:
Why totally ignore the people on the ground, are they all robots with no thinking processes, are they not allowed a say in what they want for their country/living standards and conditions? **The people living in Ukraine have more to lose or gain than any outsiders, it is their country and their right to make their feelings known.
**
This was inevitable, after what occurred in February and a western ‘assisted’ riot in Kiev against the then elected government, which was overthrown. It would be a similar situation in most countries worldwide where two are more fractions are unhappy or wish totally different relationships or ways forward for their country. The divide in the Ukrainian population’s loyalties has been part of the Ukrainian way of life for years, but was being managed internally with no rioting/terrorist organisations or fighting.

Not anymore though after the West comes blundering in.
Click to expand...
I agree with the bolded part. Ukraine belongs to Ukrainians, and they should be the ones choosing the future of their country. But considering how a good portion of the unrest in southern and eastern regions has been stirred up by Russian citizens who are residents of Russia, not of Ukraine, I think that is becoming increasingly unlikely. (Recall, for example, how the man who raised the Russian flag on the Kharkov gov’t buildings back in late February was found to be a Russian citizen and resident of Moscow – or how when journalists in March interviewed pro-Russia protesters in Donetsk who claimed they were from nearby mining villages, the protesters couldn’t name their home village nor name any of the major mines in the region.) Things have been relatively calm in Donetsk until yesterday, and polls last week had showed that only around 10% of Donetsk region residents wanted to join Russia. Certainly I am not an expert, but that does make me somewhat suspicious…

I do hope, as I posted earlier in the thread, that the Ukrainian central government will be able to move the presidential and parliamentary elections earlier. But I’m not sure that will be able to stop the train at this point.
 
AnastasiaRomano said:
I agree with the bolded part. Ukraine belongs to Ukrainians, and they should be the ones choosing the future of their country. But considering how a good portion of the unrest in southern and eastern regions has been stirred up by Russian citizens who are residents of Russia, not of Ukraine, I think that is becoming increasingly unlikely. (Recall, for example, how the man who raised the Russian flag on the Kharkov gov’t buildings back in late February was found to be a Russian citizen and resident of Moscow – or how when journalists in March interviewed pro-Russia protesters in Donetsk who claimed they were from nearby mining villages, the protesters couldn’t name their home village nor name any of the major mines in the region.) Things have been relatively calm in Donetsk until yesterday, and polls last week had showed that only around 10% of Donetsk region residents wanted to join Russia. Certainly I am not an expert, but that does make me somewhat suspicious…

I do hope, as I posted earlier in the thread, that the Ukrainian central government will be able to move the presidential and parliamentary elections earlier. But I’m not sure that will be able to stop the train at this point.
Click to expand...
Ukrainian elections won’t change anything, and wouldn’t if they did them this afternoon. Russia and its friends would simply say the 'fascists" won, etc and seize what they want of Ukraine anyway.

A referendum in the parts of Ukraine Russia wants will be even more phony than it was in Crimea. Russia will flood the place with Russian nationals, including Spetznaz soldiers, prevent Ukrainians from voting or have the ballot rigged so that one couldn’t vote “No” to Russia like they did in Crimea. So a 10% favorable to union with Russia will turn into a 90% favorable.

Obama will hide under his desk through all of it, so Putin has nothing to keep him from doing it other than perhaps the prospect of some minor armed resistance by the locals. But since there wasn’t any in Crimea, he won’t expect any in east and south Ukraine either. And I doubt the locals would want to face Russian “Delta Force” types in any event.

This thing is a done deal. The only real question is whether Russia will leave any of Ukraine to govern itself.

I do expect Putin to at least stop at the Polish border. Poland is pretty much “all Pole”, and will fight. The Baltic states might be a different situation.
 
AnastasiaRomano said:
I agree with the bolded part. Ukraine belongs to Ukrainians, and they should be the ones choosing the future of their country. But considering how a good portion of the unrest in southern and eastern regions has been stirred up by Russian citizens who are residents of Russia, not of Ukraine, I think that is becoming increasingly unlikely. (Recall, for example, how the man who raised the Russian flag on the Kharkov gov’t buildings back in late February was found to be a Russian citizen and resident of Moscow – or how when journalists in March interviewed pro-Russia protesters in Donetsk who claimed they were from nearby mining villages, the protesters couldn’t name their home village nor name any of the major mines in the region.) Things have been relatively calm in Donetsk until yesterday, and polls last week had showed that only around 10% of Donetsk region residents wanted to join Russia. Certainly I am not an expert, but that does make me somewhat suspicious…

I do hope, as I posted earlier in the thread, that the Ukrainian central government will be able to move the presidential and parliamentary elections earlier. But I’m not sure that will be able to stop the train at this point.
Click to expand...
The electoral analysis by USAID, Dec 2013, that I have posted before, indicated an equal split between resident Ukrainians wishing to be with Russia or the EU. Russia was the more prominent choice, up to 2012/mid-13 so I can only assume there are a lot of pro-Russian people living in Ukraine - in selective areas and possibly with dual citizenship. It is one of the problems, IMO, of peoples living together under a former regime that split up, where residents from both countries (Ukraine and Russia) had left to live in either country, under the former set-up i.e. they were still all under the same ‘roof’ so to speak and now they aren’t.
 
Seamus_L said:
Protesters now declaring Donetsk a Republic bbc.com/news/world-europe-26919928
Click to expand...
From your article:

At an emergency cabinet meeting, interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk blamed Russia for the seizures.

"The plan is to destabilise the situation, the plan is for foreign troops to cross the border and seize the country’s territory, which we will not allow,’’ he said, adding that people engaged in the unrest have distinct Russian accents.

He said Russian troops remain within 30km (19 miles) of the frontier. The city of Luhansk is just 25km from the Russian border.
 
Seamus_L said:
One way of looking at this is that Russia has been planning these recent actions all along. Another way is the possibility that the Euromaidan’s toppling of the government scared the heck out of Russian speakers in the far South and East of the country.
Click to expand...
Well, with all the Russian propaganda about Nazis and fascists, I wonder, why? Moreover, the actions of those in Donetsk represent the actions of a few, i.e., not the many. I believe it is Russian provocateurs that are instigating the crisis in Donetsk.
 
pepipop said:
The electoral analysis by USAID, Dec 2013, that I have posted before, indicated an equal split between resident Ukrainians wishing to be with Russia or the EU. Russia was the more prominent choice, up to 2012/mid-13 so I can only assume there are a lot of pro-Russian people living in Ukraine - in selective areas and possibly with dual citizenship. It is one of the problems, IMO, of peoples living together under a former regime that split up, where residents from both countries (Ukraine and Russia) had left to live in either country, under the former set-up i.e. they were still all under the same ‘roof’ so to speak and now they aren’t.
Click to expand...
That poll question was about economic agreements (and wasn’t it conducted before November, i.e. before Yanukovych backed out of the EU economic agreement, not in December?). Wanting to join an economic agreement with a particular country doesn’t mean you want to become part of that country. It would be similar to using a poll finding that X percent of Americans favored closer trade relations with Canada to argue that X percent of Americans wish to be Canadian.
 
AnastasiaRomano said:
That poll question was about economic agreements (and wasn’t it conducted before November, i.e. before Yanukovych backed out of the EU economic agreement, not in December?). Wanting to join an economic agreement with a particular country doesn’t mean you want to become part of that country. It would be similar to using a poll finding that X percent of Americans favored closer trade relations with Canada to argue that X percent of Americans wish to be Canadian.
Click to expand...
True but it was very regionalised, i.e. the South and the East preferred Russia and vice versa hence there was a trend.

There were also numerous videos online of the right sector entering (e.g.) the Ukrainian national TV centre and forcing the CEO to resign because he allegedly sided with Russia in relation to the pro-Maidan coverage, and smaller mayor’s/government offices where officials were threatened too, in the pro-Russian regions. All of this did not help, in addition to the new government stating Russia would not be an official language on day one. It was just a question of time before trouble would begin, earlier elections could have helped to contain it - but I take your points in relation to same.
 
pepipop said:
True but it was very regionalised, i.e. the South and the East preferred Russia and vice versa hence there was a trend.

There were also numerous videos online of the right sector entering (e.g.) the Ukrainian national TV centre and forcing the CEO to resign because he allegedly sided with Russia in relation to the pro-Maidan coverage, and smaller mayor’s/government offices where officials were threatened too, in the pro-Russian regions. All of this did not help, in addition to the new government stating Russia would not be an official language on day one. It was just a question of time before trouble would begin, earlier elections could have helped to contain it - but I take your points in relation to same.
Click to expand...
The only government buildings being taken over by anyone are those that are taken over by pro-Russian “factions” (agents) in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine still has a governing parliament and executive, at least for now. Whether Russia will allow that to continue remains to be seen.

I’m guessing Russia will only seize Ukraine to within a few miles of Kiev on the east, a bit more distant to the south. But it will absolutely seize eastern and southern Ukraine. It will go through a bogus “referendum” first, of course…one conducted by Russians, not by Ukraine itself.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top