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Ridgerunner
Guest
Sounds like Putin is saying “give me Ukraine by degrees and I promise I won’t take it all immediately.”
The sad thing is, Obama might well agree to that if Putin gives him a way to sugar coat it.
- Status
The sad thing is, Obama might well agree to that if Putin gives him a way to sugar coat it.
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gilliam
Guest
Yes, or at least the parts historically part of Russia.
To be frank, there is nothing we can do about it. We aren’t going to go to war with Russia over the these parts of Ukraine; and the EU is too dependent on Russian gas and oil to impose meaningful sanctions (which probably wouldn’t work anyway.)
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Ridgerunner
Guest
I realize that. But that does not mean the U.S. should aid in giving Russia a fig leaf to hide the fact that it’s conquering its neighbors.
I realize this is a ridiculous fantasy, but I had hoped that Obama went to Saudi Arabia to persuade the king to drastically lower natural gas prices and raise production and shipment of LNG to Europe.
I know, I know.
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pepipop
Guest
As a Western source, I’ll take the ‘spin’ on this, with a pinch of salt. Interesting to see how the Guardian reporters have access to these presently, on-going talks to witness the Russians DEMAND their TOUGH conditions.
They’re either having a discussion to agree a diplomatic solution or they’re not. Yes, Russia can suggest federalisation of Ukraine at the ‘diplomatic meeting’ but they will not be setting out a series of ‘tough conditions’. It’s a ‘diplomatic’ meeting, not a ‘you do as we say, or else’, meeting. When it’s all said and done, Ukraine shall decide what it wishes to do, whatever anyone else advises. They may take a referendum about the issue, or the newly elected government may calm tensions and they will remain as they are.
Guardian’s spin on words…
*Russia set out a series of tough conditions on Sunday night for agreeing a diplomatic solution to the crisis over its annexation of Crimea, demanding that the US and its European partners accept its proposal that ethnic Russian regions of eastern and southern Ukraine be given extensive autonomous powers independent of Kiev.
*
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister’s words…
“Frankly speaking, we don’t see any other way for the steady development of the Ukrainian state apart from as a federation,” he added. Under the Russian plan, which Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin reportedly discussed in a phone call initiated by Moscow on Friday, each region would have control of its economy, taxes, culture, language, education and “external economic and cultural connections with neighbouring countries or regions,” Lavrov said. “Given the proportion of native Russians [in Ukraine], we propose this and we are sure there is no other way.”
Building a federal Ukraine
washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/19/building-a-federal-ukraine/
*There was a turn against ethnofederalism in the 1990s that is ripe for a reassessment. Prior to the collapse of communism, there was a dominant paradigm that federalism as “self rule and shared rule” has positive “win-win” effects on promoting stable politics, and indeed, that it was the constitutional order (following the U.S. example) that was most conducive to democracy. Federalism was also seen as an essential constitutional design for the “politics of accommodation” in “deeply divided” or “plural” societies.
The Ukraine crisis offers an opportune moment to reassess the value of autonomy and federalism to peacefully manage conflict and enhance state stability. It is of note that the federal concept is now central to how policymakers see the way forward not just in Ukraine but in other places of conflict in the post-communist space, and beyond (for example, Iraq, Syria, and Libya).*
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pepipop
Guest
Seems like Lavrov ‘chickened out’ from making Russia’s ‘demands and conditions’, in relation to Ukraine, at the meeting with Kerry.
reuters.com/article/2014/03/30/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2S0K020140330
*Both Kerry and Lavrov said the Ukrainian government has to be part of the solution.
“Neither Russia, nor the United States, nor anyone else can impose any specific plans on Ukrainians,” Lavrov told a separate briefing as quoted by the RIA news agency.*
reuters.com/article/2014/03/30/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2S0K020140330
*Both Kerry and Lavrov said the Ukrainian government has to be part of the solution.
“Neither Russia, nor the United States, nor anyone else can impose any specific plans on Ukrainians,” Lavrov told a separate briefing as quoted by the RIA news agency.*
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Seamus_L
Guest
Ron Paul on bailouts for Ukraine original.antiwar.com/paul/2014/03/30/aid-to-ukraine-is-a-bad-deal-for-all/
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pepipop
Guest
Well, knock me down with a feather.
nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/tour-ukraine-russia-border-finds-no-signs-military-buildup-n67336
Tour of Ukraine-Russia Border Finds No Signs of Military Buildup
*According to dire warnings from U.S. military and intelligence officials, Russian President Vladimir Putin, fresh from his daring annexation of Ukraine’s strategic Crimean Peninsula, has concentrated tens of thousands of his forces on the border with Ukraine. Camouflaged and concealed to throw off U.S. spy satellites, the warnings say, the heavily armed combat troops and special operations forces are coiled and ready to spring across the border into restive regions of Eastern and Southern Ukraine such as Kharkov and Donetsk, where pro-Russian populations are eager to be annexed by Russia, just like Crimea.
Top Russian officials – including Putin himself – have denied any such troop concentrations near the Western border. One minor Ministry of Defense official, who didn’t want to be named because he wasn’t authorized to comment, told NBC News that there had been training exercises – war games – in the border region but, once ended, those troops and armor returned to their bases. “All of this international hype is completely unfounded,” he told us earlier in the week.
We went to look for ourselves. Cameraman Dmitry Solovyov, sound engineer Alexei Gordienko and I packed our bags, devices and news-gathering gadgets into the back of our grey, nondescript bureau minivan and began a journey along the 1,200 mile border between Russia and Ukraine – many segments of which give no indication that it’s an actual border between two countries.
We had apparently wandered into a prohibited, 3-mile wide security zone. But the agents of the former KGB were polite, even willing to talk on background.
“Look over there, ‘’said the regional chief, pointing toward the border crossing. “The Ukrainians have tanks just inside. Can you imagine if a trained, Right Sector (Ukrainian ultra-nationalist militant) commandeers the vehicle and fires on us?”
Did he think that Kiev would give that order, I asked?
“No, I don’t. But we have no faith that Kiev can prevent such an incident,” he replied. After some two hours of discussion, we were let go, each with a photocopy of the law we’d broken. ‘’You’re not the first ones,’’ said the chief, seeing us off.*
nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/tour-ukraine-russia-border-finds-no-signs-military-buildup-n67336
Tour of Ukraine-Russia Border Finds No Signs of Military Buildup
*According to dire warnings from U.S. military and intelligence officials, Russian President Vladimir Putin, fresh from his daring annexation of Ukraine’s strategic Crimean Peninsula, has concentrated tens of thousands of his forces on the border with Ukraine. Camouflaged and concealed to throw off U.S. spy satellites, the warnings say, the heavily armed combat troops and special operations forces are coiled and ready to spring across the border into restive regions of Eastern and Southern Ukraine such as Kharkov and Donetsk, where pro-Russian populations are eager to be annexed by Russia, just like Crimea.
Top Russian officials – including Putin himself – have denied any such troop concentrations near the Western border. One minor Ministry of Defense official, who didn’t want to be named because he wasn’t authorized to comment, told NBC News that there had been training exercises – war games – in the border region but, once ended, those troops and armor returned to their bases. “All of this international hype is completely unfounded,” he told us earlier in the week.
We went to look for ourselves. Cameraman Dmitry Solovyov, sound engineer Alexei Gordienko and I packed our bags, devices and news-gathering gadgets into the back of our grey, nondescript bureau minivan and began a journey along the 1,200 mile border between Russia and Ukraine – many segments of which give no indication that it’s an actual border between two countries.
We had apparently wandered into a prohibited, 3-mile wide security zone. But the agents of the former KGB were polite, even willing to talk on background.
“Look over there, ‘’said the regional chief, pointing toward the border crossing. “The Ukrainians have tanks just inside. Can you imagine if a trained, Right Sector (Ukrainian ultra-nationalist militant) commandeers the vehicle and fires on us?”
Did he think that Kiev would give that order, I asked?
“No, I don’t. But we have no faith that Kiev can prevent such an incident,” he replied. After some two hours of discussion, we were let go, each with a photocopy of the law we’d broken. ‘’You’re not the first ones,’’ said the chief, seeing us off.*
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Aramis
Guest
The Grand Duchy of Finland was part of the Russian Empire from the early 19th C until 1917. Prior, it had been part of Sweden.
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Aramis
Guest
It’s been independent of Russia only since the 1917 Russian Revolutions, and wasn’t functionally separate until about 1922. It broke off because the bolshevki came to power, not because it was oppressed by Russia.
Wonderful book about the war to be free of the bolsheviks: Krondstat 1921, by Paul Avrich.
Finns were generally fighting to restore the Monarchy of Russia (the White faction) during the Russian Civil War (1917-1922)
That would be all of it including parts west of its current western border, and north into the south of modern Poland
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Ridgerunner
Guest
How far over the Russian border were they allowed to inspect? If they weren’t, and it doesn’t appear they did, this is a worthless “testimony” entirely.Well, knock me down with a feather.
nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/tour-ukraine-russia-border-finds-no-signs-military-buildup-n67336
Tour of Ukraine-Russia Border Finds No Signs of Military Buildup
*According to dire warnings from U.S. military and intelligence officials, Russian President Vladimir Putin, fresh from his daring annexation of Ukraine’s strategic Crimean Peninsula, has concentrated tens of thousands of his forces on the border with Ukraine. Camouflaged and concealed to throw off U.S. spy satellites, the warnings say, the heavily armed combat troops and special operations forces are coiled and ready to spring across the border into restive regions of Eastern and Southern Ukraine such as Kharkov and Donetsk, where pro-Russian populations are eager to be annexed by Russia, just like Crimea.
Top Russian officials – including Putin himself – have denied any such troop concentrations near the Western border. One minor Ministry of Defense official, who didn’t want to be named because he wasn’t authorized to comment, told NBC News that there had been training exercises – war games – in the border region but, once ended, those troops and armor returned to their bases. “All of this international hype is completely unfounded,” he told us earlier in the week.
We went to look for ourselves. Cameraman Dmitry Solovyov, sound engineer Alexei Gordienko and I packed our bags, devices and news-gathering gadgets into the back of our grey, nondescript bureau minivan and began a journey along the 1,200 mile border between Russia and Ukraine – many segments of which give no indication that it’s an actual border between two countries.
We had apparently wandered into a prohibited, 3-mile wide security zone. But the agents of the former KGB were polite, even willing to talk on background.
“Look over there, ‘’said the regional chief, pointing toward the border crossing. “The Ukrainians have tanks just inside. Can you imagine if a trained, Right Sector (Ukrainian ultra-nationalist militant) commandeers the vehicle and fires on us?”
Did he think that Kiev would give that order, I asked?
“No, I don’t. But we have no faith that Kiev can prevent such an incident,” he replied. After some two hours of discussion, we were let go, each with a photocopy of the law we’d broken. ‘’You’re not the first ones,’’ said the chief, seeing us off.*
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pepipop
Guest
I don’t really understand your question, they were in Russia and wandered up and down the length of the Ukraine /Russian border, on the Russian side.
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AnastasiaRomano
Guest
I think Ridgerunner’s question was – how far inside Russia were they? For example, if they were in the no-man’s land/“security zone” or even one mile inside the Russian border, is there any real way they can vouch that there are no troops 5 miles away? It’s good the writers didn’t see any in the parts they traveled through, but does this really prove that there aren’t any troops close by? (I’m also curious to know how the writers would respond to all the amateur photos taken by Russians living near the border that appear to show significant movement of military equipment… But, the writers aren’t here to answer that question.)
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pepipop
Guest
They mentioned below that they sometimes were 30 - 40 miles inland of the border. The troops are either on the border or they’re not and s they made the trip and the reporter is American, I’m sure they would have thought that through themselves and/or asked the locals to direct them to where ‘all’ the troops were and also to show them their photos.
IMO Russia has no intention of going into Ukraine, nor do they have troops lined up on the Ukraine border.
We traveled some 500 miles along the border – sometimes right next to Ukraine, at other times 30 to 40 miles from it – before we came across any sign of military activity. As we passed Belgorod’s army base, near the airport, I recognized the same MI-24 choppers I’d seen on the Internet. We got lucky – a pair took off as we drove past. We turned back to see them banking within the base’s perimeter. Nearby, clusters of military vehicles, mostly heavy trucks, were out in the open, but where were the tanks and artillery?
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Ridgerunner
Guest
They said they were in Russia, but also said they sometimes couldn’t tell whether they were in Russia or Ukraine.
The article really doesn’t tell where they were most of the time. Obviously at times within a 3 mile “prohibited zone” which one assumes is right on the border. The writer says sometime or other they were 30 or 40 miles from the border. And because it sometimes looked lackadaisical to the writer and because he “saw lots of trucks but no tanks”, he suggests that the Russians are not thinking to invade Ukraine.
This “personal testimony” tells us exactly nothing about Russian capability or intent. Some would, of course, give more credence to such anecdotal stories than to the intelligence services of western nations, especially that of the U.S.
But no matter what, the fact remains that Russian armed forces seized Crimea, drove out Ukrainians and Tatars, captured Ukrainian forces or obliged them to leave, and annexed the place, despite having twice agreed to Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. At some point, one needs to believe the obvious.
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AnastasiaRomano
Guest
Crimean Tatars, despite call for autonomy, face dilemma in relations with Russia: cooperate or boycott?
kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/crimean-tatars-despite-call-for-autonomy-face-dilemma-in-relations-with-russia-cooperate-or-boycott-341552.html
kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/crimean-tatars-despite-call-for-autonomy-face-dilemma-in-relations-with-russia-cooperate-or-boycott-341552.html
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pepipop
Guest
If the American intelligent forces can show satellite and/or other sourced photographic or other evidence of same, i.e. Russian troops on the border - then yes, I’ll believe it. In this day and age, absolutely nothing has leaked, to prove it.
Putin’s said they’re not there, as has his foreign minister. Why lie and have egg on their face. If it can’t be proven - then it must not be true. The usual media spin,spin,spin…The next story will be, after the NATO meeting tomorrow, that Putin has ‘agreed’ to move his troops from the Ukraine border - i.e. the invisible ones that were never actually there to begin with.
EDIT: Whoops, I spoke too late, I see another post mentioning same… all to save face of the Western media and countries, and to make it look like the Russians are actually doing something when they’re ‘told’ to do it, by the international community.
**Putin pulls some troops back from Ukraine border, Germany says
Ukraine crisis: Putin ‘orders partial withdrawal’***
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Ridgerunner
Guest
Ridgerunner;11852835:
If the American intelligent forces can show satellite and/or other sourced photographic or other evidence of same, i.e. Russian troops on the border - then yes, I’ll believe it. In this day and age, absolutely nothing has leaked, to prove it.
The next story will be, after the NATO meeting tomorrow, that Putin has ‘agreed’ to move his troops from the Ukraine border - i.e. the invisible ones that were never actually there to begin with.
EDIT: Whoops, I spoke too late, I see another post mentioning same… all to save face of the Western media and countries, and to make it look like the Russians are actually doing something when they’re ‘told’ to do it, by the international community.
**Putin pulls some troops back from Ukraine border, Germany says
Ukraine crisis: Putin ‘orders partial withdrawal’**
So, Putin is pulling out some of the troops that “weren’t there” to begin with.
Regardless, Russia has annexed Crimea, and the ethnic cleansing there goes on. Yet, we’re to believe Russia is not an aggressor.
And what is Russia doing flexing its power at Finland? nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/finland-frets-russia-launches-military-drills-its-doorstep-n67866
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josie_L
Guest
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pepipop
Guest
- Status