From the Daily Beast’s Eli Lake:
*Russia is invading Ukraine with its Spetsnaz—the special operations units and battalions attached to both the military and the country’s intelligence agencies.
U.S. intelligence officials now say Russia’s Spetsnaz are expanding into eastern and southern Ukraine, as well. The intelligence report from February assessed that Russian provocateurs would look to instigate low-level street brawls or “skirmishes” in eastern and southern Ukraine. The report also predicted that Russia’s shadow warriors would seek to pay off Ukrainians to attend pro-Russian rallies and in general fan the flames of separatism. And since then, eyewitnesses say, that’s exactly what’s happened.
One U.S. official said the U.S. military intelligence analysts suspect elements of the 45th Spetsnaz regiment of Russia’s military intelligence service known as the GRU were conducting the provocations in Ukraine. On Thursday the White House added Igor Sergun, the 57 year old chief of the GRU, along with 19 others to a list of Russian officials sanctioned for the invasion of Crimea.
“This is the use of deniable special operators under GRU control to create provocations and really these are quasi-deniable operations,” added John Schindler, a retired NSA counter-intelligence officer and specialist in Russian affairs who now teaches at the U.S. Naval War College.
Last week, the Ukrainian press reported that a member of Russia’s GRU was arrested trying to enter the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson carrying heavy weapons and phony identification documents. According to a second press account, the Security Service of Ukraine arrested a Ukrainian citizen that it claimed was leading a spy ring to conduct surveillance on sensitive military installations in Kherson.
Schindler said the GRU Spetznas were following a similar playbook of provocations or “active measures” taken in the Republic of Georgia following the country’s 2005 Rose Revolution. “This sort of Spetznas special operations, intel-driven exercise is the continuing Russian refinement of the same model used in Georgia,” he said.*
thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/21/u-s-eyes-russian-spies-infiltrating-ukraine.html
Now that article was written over a week ago. Since that time the Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s borders has accelerated, as per Time Magazine:
*American officials are worried that 50,000 Russian troops being massed near the Ukraine border and within Crimea, the pro-Russian peninsula recently annexed by President Vladimir Putin, aren’t there for just a training exercise.
Despite Russian reassurances that Moscow’s troop buildup along Ukraine’s eastern frontier is for a military exercise, its growing scale is making U.S. officials nervous about its ultimate aim.
Pentagon officials say they believe there could be close to 50,000 Russian troops bordering the former Soviet republic and inside Crimea, recently seized and annexed by Moscow. That estimate is double earlier assessments, and means Russian President Vladimir Putin could order a lighting strike into Ukrainian territory with the forces already in place.
*
time.com/41490/russia-ukraine-crimea-putin/
I sincerely do hope Russian military aggression and blackmail against neighboring democracies do not have too many supporters on CAF.