Ukraine (cont.)

[Vouthon]

Edward Lucas, a British journalist who writes for The Economist and who was its Moscow bureau chief from 1998-2002, has written a very alarmist article in the Daily Mail.

Sadly in view of the astounding and disturbing events of the past few weeks, he may be onto something. He is essentially right in saying that the West is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. If we do nothing, Putin will dismember Ukraine and eventually try the same policies in the Baltics. If we do try to respond by flexing our military muscles and sending strong warning signals over and above sanctions, Putin will characterize us as the “aggressors”, leading to a potentially catastrophic military escalation:

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2605578/Edward-Lucas-I-hope-Im-wrong-historians-look-say-start-World-War-III.html

 

[Vouthon]

A few excerpts:

**EDWARD LUCAS: I hope I’m wrong but historians may look back and say this was the start of World War III

‘Vladimir Putin is striking at the heart of the West’
‘We can chose to surrender any responsibility we have to protect Ukraine and the Baltic states’
‘Or we can mount a last-ditch attempt to deter Russia from furthering its imperial ambitions’
‘If we choose to resist Putin, we will risk a terrifying miltary escalation’
‘I do not think it an exaggeration to say this could bring us to the brink of nuclear war’**

*Deep in the flat and featureless landscape of eastern Ukraine, it is all too possible that the outline of World War III is taking shape.

Whipped up by the Kremlin *propaganda machine and led by Russian *military intelligence, armed men are erecting road blocks, storming police stations and ripping down the country’s flag…

We are soon to face a bleak choice. We can chose to surrender any responsibility we have to protect Ukraine and the Baltic states — almost certainly Putin’s next target — from further Russian incursion. Or we can mount a last-ditch attempt to deter Russia from furthering its imperial ambitions.

If we do choose to resist Putin, we will risk a terrifying military escalation, which I do not think it an exaggeration to say could bring us to the brink of nuclear war.

Putin knows that. And he believes we will choose surrender. For the real story of recent events in Ukraine is not about whether that country has a free-trade deal with Brussels or gets its gas from Moscow.

But the bitter truth is that Russia did not reform its ambitions in 1991. The Kremlin has always retained its imperialist outlook.

While modern Germany has *forsworn militarism and empire, and is liked and admired even by countries such as Poland, which suffered horribly at Hitler’s hands, Russia has not.

Putin believes its historic destiny gives Russia the right to seize land, intimidate and blockade its neighbours. The Russian leader sees Ukraine not as a real country, just a territory, and one he is determined to dominate…

Any bloodshed against a single Russian soldier will give Putin a pretext to use his military might.
For her part, Russia has played a brutally clever game. She has *deliberately sought to humiliate and destabilise Ukraine.

Now Putin can claim his soldiers must be allowed to intervene because the very social disorder his outriders have engineered demonstrates that the authorities cannot maintain order.

The hypocrisy is breath-taking. But the Ukraine adventure is *stoking a patriotic frenzy at home which *distracts the public from his regime’s incompetence and thievery.

But the biggest benefit to the *Russian president lies abroad. He makes no secret of his hatred for the West. He is contemptuous of, yet fears, our soft power. He resents the laws, liberty and prosperity that our citizens enjoy. They throw into bleak contrast the dismal life that his own *corrupt and incompetent rule offers Russians.

He also despises our weakness. He sees a Europe and America that talk tough but have failed to *provide a united response to the growing catastrophe. Yes, we talk a good game — Foreign Secretary William Hague has called for ‘a clear and united international response’ — but our deeds do not match our words, and Putin knows it.

In his bleak world view, only force and money count. He believes we in the West are too weak to defend ourselves when threatened. So far, his assessment looks right. Even Nato — the bulwark of our security since 1949 — is creaking under the strain of the Ukraine crisis…

Having taken Ukraine, he will turn his attention to the Baltic states. Members of the EU and Nato, their lawful societies, elections and *thriving economies are an implicit rebuke to those who preside over sleaze and brutality in Russia.

**Now Putin sees a chance to humiliate them — and the West. He does not need to invade, just to provoke. Using social division and agitation he will raise the pressure — whether economic or political — on one or more of the Baltic states until it becomes unbearable.

Nato and the EU — on current form — will merely appeal for *dialogue and threaten sanctions. *But nothing will happen. Which means the Baltics will buckle, and Putin will take back lands which he believes are rightly Russia’s.

That will be the end of Nato — and the dawn of a terrifying new world in which international rules count for nothing and the strong dominate the weak. Russia — ruthless and greedy — can play divide and rule for decades to come**…

**If the West does stand up to *Russia, Putin will put its nuclear forces on alert, all the while decrying our ‘aggressive behaviour’.

As the centenary of the Great War in July approaches, historians are vying to p(name removed by moderator)oint the chain of events which started that conflict.

I may be wrong, but in 100 years time, will their successors look back at the events in Ukraine to make sense of the beginnings of the next world conflagration?**

 

[pepipop]

Russia has made numerous statements expressing its deep concern for the treatment of Russian-speakers in Baltic countries. Considering that in Ukraine statements of concern for Russian-speakers have been followed by Crimea’s annexation and widespread unrest that the Baltic countries (and most every other country except Russia) believe to be coordinated/provoked/whatever word of choice by Russia, I’d say they’re pretty worried about parts of their countries being destabilized and annexed.

Everyone knows Putin went into Crimea because 1) Crimea wanted out of Ukraine and 2) he wanted permanent access to the naval base. Putin has no intention of going anywhere else in Ukraine, even less so anywhere else - but c’est la vie, he used the ‘excuse’ (albeit partially true) so they’ll now use it against him to stir it all up.

 

[oldcatholicguy]

Everyone knows Putin went into Crimea because 1) Crimea wanted out of Ukraine and 2) he wanted permanent access to the naval base. Putin has no intention of going anywhere else in Ukraine, even less so anywhere else - but c’est la vie, he used the ‘excuse’ (albeit partially true) so they’ll now use it against him to stir it all up.

I’m sure you’ll post something similar once Russia takes over eastern Ukraine and starts licking its chops over another location.

 

[Miserissima]

I’m sure you’ll post something similar once Russia takes over eastern Ukraine and starts licking its chops over another location.

Well, it will be for a good cause. You see, all the Russian speakers will have fled the fighting, moving deeper into Ukraine, and Putin will have to catch up to them to “protect” them some more.

Here’s the latest US State Department fact sheet:
state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/04/224759.htm

 

[AnastasiaRomano]

“SBU predicts Russian-backed murder to justify full-scale invasion”
kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/sbu-predicts-russian-backed-murder-to-justify-full-scale-invasion-343855.html

The invasion of Ukraine’s eastern regions is made in Moscow, the Security Service of Ukraine said on April 16, and they came for blood.

The state agency, known as the SBU, says that a special reconnaissance and operations unit within the Moscow-based 45th Detached Reconnaissance Regiment of Russian Airborne Troops and military intelligence units from southern Russia are leading the insurgency.

Their objective is to “cause bloodshed on the streets of our cities” and kill “100-200” Ukrainians to provide a pretext for Russia to mass an invasion of eastern Ukraine, said Vitaliy Naida, a high-ranking member of the SBU’s counter-intelligence department. Then, he predicted, “in an hour-and-a-half, tanks and armored personnel carriers of the Russian army will appear on the territory of Ukraine."

Naida of the SBU said that Russian military intelligence officer Igor Strelkov is commanding terrorist and subversion activities in eastern and southern Ukraine, including a network of Russian and Ukrainian saboteur agents.

Strelkov commandeered a group of 30 Russian subversive soldiers and gave the order “to destroy” the Alpha group on April 13, said Naida, referring to a successful ambush during which SBU captain Hennadiy Bilichenko was mortally wounded. The brief firefight took place at a roadblock near the entrance to Semenovka, a village adjacent to Slovyansk.

…]

Communication that the SBU intercepted after the ambush allegedly shows Strelkov, the Russian forces leader in Ukraine, being congratulated for a “job well done on Palm Sunday.”

 

[pepipop]

I’m sure you’ll post something similar once Russia takes over eastern Ukraine and starts licking its chops over another location.

The un-elected Ukraine government has been saying Russia have been ready to invade every day for the past 8 weeks - still no sign. It was definitely the 8th of March, that date passed then onto the next one. Maybe once Putin takes Sweden, Finland and crosses nearer to the Irish sea he’ll take Ireland, too.

 

[pepipop]

korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/3350490-rehyonaly-na-sezde-podderzhaly-referendum-v-donetskoi-oblasty

*Regionals at the Congress supported the referendum in the Donetsk region.

Representatives of Donetsk on the eve of the republic established by the CEC and prepare for a referendum on May 11.
Party of Regions supports the initiative of holding a referendum in the Donetsk region, scheduled for May 11. Told delegate OL Roman Kovalenko during the extraordinary congress of deputies of the Party of Regions at all levels of the Donetsk region. “I believe that we need to support the initiative to hold a referendum of the people” - said Kovalenko.

Previously reported that in Donetsk created the Central Election Commission, which will deal with the organization and conduct of the referendum . In particular, the Donetsk regional council deputy Irina Popova said that as she became known, the People’s Republic of Donetsk CEC allocated a building next to the regional administration, known in the former home of political education.

“For the list of members of the CEC is now taking shape,” - said Popov. She also said that a referendum will be decided two questions. “First, presumably, would be:” Do you agree with the creation of an independent republic in Donetsk?. “Second,” In which state should be Donetsk Republic - Ukraine or Russia? ". According to Popov, the CEC has to be done “titanic work” as in the Donetsk region with a population of 4.5 million people, about 3.5 million voters.*

 

[Seamus_L]

According to the BBC Ukraine’s “anti-terrorist” operation is looking more and more a non-event - or worse, an outright fiasco. bbc.com/news/world-europe-27053500
I'll say it once again. That Euromaidan bunch really got some people scared and angry in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.

 

[Mickey_Finn]

korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/3350490-rehyonaly-na-sezde-podderzhaly-referendum-v-donetskoi-oblasty

*Regionals at the Congress supported the referendum in the Donetsk region.

Representatives of Donetsk on the eve of the republic established by the CEC and prepare for a referendum on May 11.
Party of Regions supports the initiative of holding a referendum in the Donetsk region, scheduled for May 11. Told delegate OL Roman Kovalenko during the extraordinary congress of deputies of the Party of Regions at all levels of the Donetsk region. “I believe that we need to support the initiative to hold a referendum of the people” - said Kovalenko.

Previously reported that in Donetsk created the Central Election Commission, which will deal with the organization and conduct of the referendum . In particular, the Donetsk regional council deputy Irina Popova said that as she became known, the People’s Republic of Donetsk CEC allocated a building next to the regional administration, known in the former home of political education.

“For the list of members of the CEC is now taking shape,” - said Popov. She also said that a referendum will be decided two questions. “First, presumably, would be:” Do you agree with the creation of an independent republic in Donetsk?. “Second,” In which state should be Donetsk Republic - Ukraine or Russia? ". According to Popov, the CEC has to be done “titanic work” as in the Donetsk region with a population of 4.5 million people, about 3.5 million voters.*

Donetsk is a part of Ukraine. Unless the Ukrainians sign it away it must remain Ukrainian. They can have as many referendums as they please it won’t change this.

ATB

 

[pepipop]

According to the BBC Ukraine’s “anti-terrorist” operation is looking more and more a non-event - or worse, an outright fiasco. bbc.com/news/world-europe-27053500

                                            I'll say it once again. That Euromaidan bunch really got some people scared and angry in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.

Of course the overthrowing of the elected gov. and then the newly elected government’s antics e.g. - banning Russian as an official language, throwing pro-Russian politicians out of office in small towns, the CEO of the Ukraine TV station told to leave, etc… helped to inflame it.

It makes people extremely angry, others worried and frightened when they live in a country with two differing views and one side blatantly takes the upper hand, through undemocratic means.

 

[pepipop]

Donetsk is a part of Ukraine. Unless the Ukrainians sign it away it must remain Ukrainian. They can have as many referendums as they please it won’t change this.

ATB

I would agree and would wonder if this has even been passed by Russia. Yes, Russia wanted Crimea and Crimea wanted to go with Russia - so it seems to be a very ‘off-the-cuff’ move, by the opposition.

 

[pepipop]

Very long article.
How to Save Ukraine
Why Russia Is Not the Real Problem
foreignaffairs.com/articles/141182/keith-darden/how-to-save-ukraine
When Yanukovych and his entire government were ousted back in February, the West welcomed it as a semi-constitutional revolution. The Russians saw it as a right-wing coup d’état. Neither view is entirely incorrect, but each misses the point. The relevant fact for Ukrainian politics is that power shifted in an extreme fashion from one regional base to another.

First, back in mid-February, only 20 percent in the east and eight percent in the south felt sympathetic toward the Maidan protesters; they could not possibly be expected to be pleased with how power changed hands in Kiev. Making matters worse, the new government under Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is dominated by the west. Around 60 percent of its top officials (ministers and above) come from the former Habsburg provinces. A third are from Lviv itself. Only two members of the new government (Interior Minister Arsen Avakov and Minister of Social Policy Lyudmila Denisova) hail from the country’s south and east.

It is not hard to see why the Russophile regions have raged against the new government, which the regional press calls the Kiev junta, the Maidan government in Kiev, or simply Banderovtsy (the informal name for the anti-Soviet insurgency that was based in the Habsburg west). Indeed, the consequences of the shift in power toward the far west have been entirely predictable. First, Crimea was lost, and not solely because of the presence of Russian special forces. Rather, in early March, the overwhelming majority of Ukraine’s military forces on the peninsula simply followed the newly appointed head of the Ukrainian navy and defected to the Russian side. In Donetsk, even before pro-Russian groups occupied the regional administrative buildings and declared the area the Donetsk Autonomous Republic, the courts were refusing to act on the request of the prosecutors (controlled from Kiev) to charge and try protestors. Elsewhere in the New Russian territories, protesters have taken to the streets and seized administrations buildings despite the high risk of arrest.

According to a recent poll, the idea of joining NATO is popular only in western Ukraine (64 percent in favor). It is deeply unpopular in the south (11 percent in favor) and the east (14 percent in favor). Much the same is true for membership in the European Union. If the matter were up for a referendum, which it will not be anytime soon, 90 percent would vote yes in the west, 29 percent would vote yes in the south, and 22 percent would vote yes in the east.*

 

[Ridgerunner]

Donetsk is a part of Ukraine. Unless the Ukrainians sign it away it must remain Ukrainian. They can have as many referendums as they please it won’t change this.

ATB

It will be as phony a referendum as the Crimean one was.

 

[7_Sorrows]

There is a russian man who shops where I work.
He says that most of the people do side with russia and the govt in crimea was corrupt. He thinks the western media do not understand what is really going on.

 

[Ridgerunner]

The un-elected Ukraine government has been saying Russia have been ready to invade every day for the past 8 weeks - still no sign. It was definitely the 8th of March, that date passed then onto the next one. Maybe once Putin takes Sweden, Finland and crosses nearer to the Irish sea he’ll take Ireland, too.

Some few in Ireland would, no doubt, welcome it, just as some wanted Hitler to invade Ireland.

Russia doesn’t have to “invade” Eastern Ukraine. All it has to do is what it did in Crimea and is doing in Eastern Ukraine now; infiltrate, dispossess Ukrainian governmental units by force, hold a phony Russian-controlled “referendum”, and then annex it to Russia. In other words, what it’s doing right now except for the last two steps. But they will come.

It’s so “Soviet” for Russia to call the anti-Russians in Ukraine “fascists” or “Banderoftsy” (Banderists). Most of the people in the Soviet Gulags were called one or the other or both. Same lies. Same blaming the victims of gross injustice.

Russia seized part of Ukraine and annexed it to Russia, despite its prior agreements that Ukraine’s territorial integrity be respected, including Crimea. That’s a fact, and no rationalization or false accusations against the Russians who ousted the Russian agent Yanukovych will make it otherwise.

It’s a very sad thing for Ukrainians, all of this. No one should take the conquerer’s part. Few in the west do.

 

[pepipop]

Some few in Ireland would, no doubt, welcome it, just as some wanted Hitler to invade Ireland.

Russia doesn’t have to “invade” Eastern Ukraine. All it has to do is what it did in Crimea and is doing in Eastern Ukraine now; infiltrate, dispossess Ukrainian governmental units by force, hold a phony Russian-controlled “referendum”, and then annex it to Russia. In other words, what it’s doing right now except for the last two steps. But they will come.

It’s so “Soviet” for Russia to call the anti-Russians in Ukraine “fascists” or “Banderoftsy” (Banderists). Most of the people in the Soviet Gulags were called one or the other or both. Same lies. Same blaming the victims of gross injustice.

Russia seized part of Ukraine and annexed it to Russia, despite its prior agreements that Ukraine’s territorial integrity be respected, including Crimea. That’s a fact, and no rationalization or false accusations against the Russians who ousted the Russian agent Yanukovych will make it otherwise.

It’s a very sad thing for Ukrainians, all of this. No one should take the conquerer’s part. Few in the west do.

Read the article above, 'not Russia’s fault. about the electoral demographics and history and unrest in Ukraine… Russia has suggested federalisation of Ukraine, but it’s up to the Ukrainians. He can’t do what he did with Crimea to other oblasts/areas, Crimea was already an autonomous republic, declared under ‘an un-elected Ukraine government’ it was a republic, etc…

Of course it’s devastating for the Ukrainians and my heart goes out to them, they are the ones in the thick of it all always the people on the ground that suffer - the EU messing about in December set the whole thing off, reneging on monetary deals, no membership of the EU, etc. Then the EU and the US helped pick the ‘new’ government and the rest is history.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/...V7QCueefQwGnp5ad99GgTMTaKB8SlnL37mYu31OlY0rVr

 

[josie_L]

Of course the overthrowing of the elected gov. and then the newly elected government’s antics e.g. - banning Russian as an official language, throwing pro-Russian politicians out of office in small towns, the CEO of the Ukraine TV station told to leave, etc… helped to inflame it.

Yanukovych fled the country, so they had no choice to elect a new government. Moreover, there was no banning of the Russian language in the Ukraine, i.e., the government proposed to overturn an unpopular law put in place by Yanukovych that would allow Russian or any other minority (Tatar, Polish, Hungarian, Romanian) language (where the population was more than 10%) to be used or spoken in government institutions. As for throwing pro-Russian politicians out of office, well that’s too vague for me to comment on, i.e., I have to see the source in order to understand the context.

It makes people extremely angry, others worried and frightened when they live in a country with two differing views and one side blatantly takes the upper hand, through undemocratic means.

Sorry, but these two differing views were not much of an obstacle prior to the machinations of Putin/Russia, i.e., there isn’t the support for the Russians that you seem to think there is in the Eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, many countries, just like yours, struggle with dichotomous views, usually political (conservative/tradition vs. liberal/
“progress”).

 

[pepipop]

Yanukovych fled the country, so they had no choice to elect a new government. Moreover, there was no banning of the Russian language in the Ukraine, i.e., the government proposed to overturn an unpopular law put in place by Yanukovych that would allow Russian or any other minority (Tatar, Polish, Hungarian, Romanian) language (where the population was more than 10%) to be used or spoken in government institutions. As for throwing pro-Russian politicians out of office, well that’s too vague for me to comment on, i.e., I have to see the source in order to understand the context.

Sorry, but these two differing views were not much of an obstacle prior to the machinations of Putin/Russia, i.e., there isn’t the support for the Russians that you seem to think there is in the Eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, many countries, just like yours, struggle with dichotomous views, usually political (conservative/tradition vs. liberal/
“progress”).

*Yet inattention to Ukraine’s internal demons reflects a dangerous misreading of current events; the struggle between Russia and the West has been a catalyst, but not a cause. The protagonists in this conflict are subnational regions. The EU association process, and especially the protests, repression, and revolution that followed, activated very deep and long-standing divisions between them. Unless Kiev deals with its regions and installs a more legitimate, decentralized government, Ukraine will not be won by the East or the West. It will be torn apart.

Since the problem is an internal Ukrainian problem (and remains so, despite Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the presence of tens of thousands of Russian troops on the country’s borders, and the seizure of city administrations throughout eastern Ukraine by pro-Russian groups), the solution will also be Ukrainian. The country might not be able to fix its centuries-old divides, but it must finally craft institutions to accommodate them.

The most obvious way to do that is through some form of constitutional change. Call it what you want: decentralization, federalization, regionalization. The label makes little difference. Kiev needs to transfer some very substantial powers, including those over education, language, law, and taxation, to the regions. It also needs to make the officials who hold such powers democratically accountable to elected councils and governors. T*

foreignaffairs.com/articles/141182/keith-darden/how-to-save-ukraine

 

[josie_L]

Very long article.
How to Save Ukraine
Why Russia Is Not the Real Problem
foreignaffairs.com/articles/141182/keith-darden/how-to-save-ukraine
*

When Yanukovych and his entire government were ousted back in February, the West welcomed it as a semi-constitutional revolution. The Russians saw it as a right-wing coup d’état. Neither view is entirely incorrect, but each misses the point. The relevant fact for Ukrainian politics is that power shifted in an extreme fashion from one regional base to another.

First, back in mid-February, only 20 percent in the east and eight percent in the south felt sympathetic toward the Maidan protesters; they could not possibly be expected to be pleased with how power changed hands in Kiev. Making matters worse, the new government under Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is dominated by the west. Around 60 percent of its top officials (ministers and above) come from the former Habsburg provinces. A third are from Lviv itself. Only two members of the new government (Interior Minister Arsen Avakov and Minister of Social Policy Lyudmila Denisova) hail from the country’s south and east.*

In the same article you quoted:

This is in sharp contrast to the Yanukovych government, under Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, in which 75 percent of the ministerial-level leadership was from the south and east of the country and 42 percent was from Yanukovych’s home province of Donetsk