Ukraine

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josie_L said:
From the same article:
Mr Putin no longer felt bound by it. Ukraine’s revolution, he claimed, has produced a new state with which Russia has no binding agreements.
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Is this true or isn’t it?
Is Putin right or isn’t he?

PS:
Honestly today I don’t know all of the facts about Russia and my sympathy for Russia started about when my foreman at work made a callous remark concerning the Chernobyl disaster with my response being that we should try to help them and we did with our relationship with them seeming to improve from thereafter.

They even had to import wheat from us back then and the latest I’ve heard is that Russia out-produces us now, but does that production include the wheat production of the Ukraine …
without Crimea would Russia have to import wheat again?

rex
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esieffe said:
Good point.

I don’t know if it has been discussed,… I have been away for a few days, but there was an article discussing Russia’s stock market tanking over this situation and how Russia’s billionaire club was quite unhappy about the financial beating they were taking over the Ukraine impasse.

Cold war Soviets did not have to worry about market fluctuations… Russia does. The US has been asked about stepping up natural gas exports. It should be interesting to see if the “world-wide 1%” has the power to force a quick end to this situation.
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Here is an article on the Russian stock market
money.cnn.com/2014/03/06/investing/russian-economy-damage/

In the long run, it will depend on who is perceived to have won this.
 
gilliam said:
Condoleezza Rice:

The longer-term task is to answer Putin’s statement about Europe’s post-Cold War future. He is saying that Ukraine will never be free to make its own choices — a message meant to reverberate in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states — and that Russia has special interests it will pursue at all costs. For Putin, the Cold War ended “tragically.” He will turn the clock back as far as intimidation through military power, economic leverage and Western inaction will allow.

After Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, the United States sent ships into the Black Sea, airlifted Georgian military forces from Iraq back to their home bases and sent humanitarian aid. Russia was denied its ultimate goal of overthrowing the democratically elected government, an admission made to me by the Russian foreign minister. The United States and Europe could agree on only a few actions to isolate Russia politically…

This time has to be different. Putin is playing for the long haul, cleverly exploiting every opening he sees. So must we, practicing strategic patience if he is to be stopped. Moscow is not immune from pressure. This is not 1968, and Russia is not the Soviet Union. The Russians need foreign investment; oligarchs like traveling to Paris and London, and there are plenty of ill-gotten gains stored in bank accounts abroad; the syndicate that runs Russia cannot tolerate lower oil prices; neither can the Kremlin’s budget, which sustains subsidies toward constituencies that support Putin. Soon, North America’s bounty of oil and gas will swamp Moscow’s capacity. Authorizing the Keystone XL pipeline and championing natural gas exports would signal that we intend to do precisely that. And Europe should finally diversify its energy supply and develop pipelines that do not run through Russia.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/condoleezza-rice-will-america-heed-the-wake-up-call-of-ukraine/2014/03/07/cf087f74-a630-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html
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It would help as well if we greatly encouraged exploration for shale gas in western and central Europe. I recently read that there are huge deposits in the Netherlands; possibly enough to supply all of Europe for many years. But fracking is banned there based on a high degree of environmentalist opposition. Perhaps they’ll rethink that.

Poland has significant deposits, but not the capital with which to develop them. That is something we could certainly help with.

I agree that the threat runs beyond eastern Ukraine. The Soviet Union placed a lot of ethnic Russians in the Baltic States. Estonia, I believe, is 40% Russian. If I was an ethnic Estonian, I would be considerably worried.
 
Russia invaded Georgia as a direct result of the latter having invaded South Ossetia first.
 
I don’t think there is much chance that Crimea will be returned to Ukraine. Russia essentially power grabbed it and intends to incorporate it into Russia. Russian soldiers are already setting up minefields and fences along the new Ukraine / Crimea border.

They may opt to set up a puppet government and it make it look like an independent state, but they won’t fool anyone.

It seems like the best we can do is rachet up sanctions and punish Putin. Then hope it might drive them to the bargaining table.

I don’t have any hope that Putin will give up Crimea. This is very sad 😦
 
smichhertz said:
I don’t think there is much chance that Crimea will be returned to Ukraine. Russia essentially power grabbed it and intends to incorporate it into Russia. Russian soldiers are already setting up minefields and fences along the new Ukraine / Crimea border.

They may opt to set up a puppet government and it make it look like an independent state, but they won’t fool anyone.

It seems like the best we can do is rachet up sanctions and punish Putin. Then hope it might drive them to the bargaining table.

I don’t have any hope that Putin will give up Crimea. This is very sad 😦
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It’s hard to have a rebellion though, and expect a whole nation to agree on one single ideology/culture. McCain probably expected this when he held talks with the rebels before the rebellion. Why he didn’t explain this to Obama is a mystery to me. Or if he did, why did Obama seem unprepared? 🤷

Or were sanctions against Russia part of the whole plan to begin with. 🤷 perhaps this is payback for Russia’s ‘getting in the way’ in Syria -which became a ‘problem’ for the U.S. 🤷
 
gilliam said:
Looks like Latvia is next

Russian ambassador: We’re making it easier for Latvian ethnic Russians to get citizenship

hotair.com/archives/2014/03/10/russian-ambassador-were-making-it-easier-for-latvian-ethnic-russians-to-get-citizenship/
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That would be interesting since Latvia is already a formal member of the EU and NATO. So what’s going on, are ethnically Russian people living in Latvia going to migrate to Russia?

…or will they remain living in Latvia while considering themselves Russian citizens?:confused: (that sounds like a consensus nightmare)

…how on earth would Russia be able to authorize citizenship to anyone there without official representation, the internet?
 
Oh, I get it! An uprising or “rebellion”… 😃

…because Russia ‘mimics’. :D:thumbsup:
 
TEPO said:
That would be interesting since Latvia is already a formal member of the EU and NATO. So what’s going on, are ethnically Russian people living in Latvia going to migrate to Russia?

…or will they remain living in Latvia while considering themselves Russian citizens?:confused: (that sounds like a consensus nightmare)

…how on earth would Russia be able to authorize citizenship to anyone there without official representation, the internet?
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Just another “Agggghhhhhhh, Russia’s going to be the world’s No 1 super power”, knee-jerk, theory.
 
TEPO said:
That would be interesting since Latvia is already a formal member of the EU and NATO. So what’s going on, are ethnically Russian people living in Latvia going to migrate to Russia?

…or will they remain living in Latvia while considering themselves Russian citizens?:confused: (that sounds like a consensus nightmare)

…how on earth would Russia be able to authorize citizenship to anyone there without official representation, the internet?
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They will simply have 2 passports. Many Russians in America do this. They leave the US using the Russian passport and use the U.S. passport on the way back. The other option is to cancel your Russian citizenship by paying a fee. I can’t imagine anyone actually doing that though as I’d imagine getting back into Russia may be a problem.
 
josie_L said:
Were those people ousted while under foreign occupation and replaced with people who would favour that country?

No, the whole thing didn’t start with the overthrow of the Ukrainian government, it started with a corrupted government led by an even more corrupted leader whose political machinations led millions onto the streets of Kyiv. The fact that you want to reduce this event to mere neo-Nazi/anti Russian sentiment, begs the question, are all those millions of Ukrainians just radicals?

The new government attempted to restrict the Russian language which was wrong, but if they are as fanatically anti-Russian as you make them out to be why did they repeal the law. And this before Russian occupation? And another thing the law would not only have restricted “Russian” but other languages as well:

One also has to question why Yanukovych did such a volte face with regards to the EU, was it all for show that he argued for the EU, i.e., to show his people that he was not as pro-Putin as they believed him to be, I don’t know, but I do know this, he is a duplicitous man, and a weak one too, i.e., one that could be easily manipulated by greed.
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Actually, I’ve just watched an American economist on TV, Dr. John C. Hulsman, political analyst and expert on international relations, answer in relation to your last paragraph:. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hulsman

Russia offered Ukraine 15 billion, EU made their offer (I don’t think he said), Yanukovich was promised the sun, moon and the stars when first negotiating with the EU/USA, but the EU would not go beyond 700 million. Yanukovich and the Ukrainian people, were also under the impression they would become a member of the EU and that was also not on the cards, hence with limited options he changed sides to Russia.

He said the EU is seen as the Wizard of Oz but in reality it is a failing economic model and Europe is in the middle of an existential crisis, with limited resources to keep helping out poorer economies. He also said the EU/USA dropped the ball with Ukraine, due to other interests they each had, e.g. Syria, etc… and hence it all blew up - as no-one was paying attention to detail.

So the fairy-tale ended, unfortunately the Ukrainian people were not aware of any of the problems with the EU deal and still thought of the EU as their ‘saviour’. In reality, a lot of the people from countries wishing to join the EU, do so so that they may immigrate for work, however this will not be an option.
 
pepipop said:
Actually, I’ve just watched an American economist on TV, Dr. John C. Hulsman, political analyst and expert on international relations, answer in relation to your last paragraph:. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hulsman

Russia offered Ukraine 15 billion, EU made their offer (I don’t think he said), Yanukovich was promised the sun, moon and the stars when first negotiating with the EU/USA, but the EU would not go beyond 700 million. Yanukovich and the Ukrainian people, were also under the impression they would become a member of the EU and that was also not on the cards, hence with limited options he changed sides to Russia.

He said the EU is seen as the Wizard of Oz but in reality it is a failing economic model and Europe is in the middle of an existential crisis, with limited resources to keep helping out poorer economies. He also said the EU/USA dropped the ball with Ukraine, due to other interests they each had, e.g. Syria, etc… and hence it all blew up - as no-one was paying attention to detail.

So the fairy-tale ended, unfortunately the Ukrainian people were not aware of any of the problems with the EU deal and still thought of the EU as their ‘saviour’. In reality, a lot of the people from countries wishing to join the EU, do so so that they may immigrate for work, however this will not be an option.
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Dr. Hulsman, really? Everybody is experiencing some financial hardships. We are all still adapting to the post 2008 world.

The EU, and Russia are competitors. So, we see them compete over things like land, and resources. For the Ukrainians it was a choice between Gangsters, and Bankers. They seem to prefer Bankers. 🤷 Whether or not the Ukrainians are accepted into the EU depends on how they effect change. Falling short of the goal of Democracy will keep them out. If they qualify, they will be integrated into the EU. But they have a long way to go.

ATB
 
Mickey_Finn said:
Dr. Hulsman, really? Everybody is experiencing some financial hardships. We are all still adapting to the post 2008 world.

The EU, and Russia are competitors. So, we see them compete over things like land, and resources. For the Ukrainians it was a choice between Gangsters, and Bankers. They seem to prefer Bankers. 🤷 Whether or not the Ukrainians are accepted into the EU depends on how they effect change. Falling short of the goal of Democracy will keep them out. If they qualify, they will be integrated into the EU. But they have a long way to go.

ATB
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Yep, I’m afraid Dr Hulsman is now talking to the big, bad, ruskies. It was a very neutral, straight forward and informative interview. He didn’t have any axe to grind, just gave straight forward facts.

rt.com/shows/sophieco/ukraine-economy-rescue-politics-810/
 
pepipop said:
Yep, I’m afraid Dr Hulsman is now talking to the big, bad, ruskies. It was a very neutral, straight forward and informative interview. He didn’t have any axe to grind, just gave straight forward facts.

rt.com/shows/sophieco/ukraine-economy-rescue-politics-810/
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Huh! Go back to the video and see Dr. Hulsmans solution… It states “only confederation can fix constant turmoil”. It’s written at the bottom of the screen. It’s a good idea IMHO.
 
TEPO said:
Huh! Go back to the video and see Dr. Hulsmans solution… It states “only confederation can fix constant turmoil”. It’s written at the bottom of the screen. It’s a good idea IMHO.
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I didn’t see that part - I have a very low boredom threshold. 😃 I read through the transcript again and all I can see in relation to it, is the below referenced: Not that I’m any wiser, as I’m useless at political speak. I believe he was neutral in relation to telling, the on the ground facts in Ukraine. He is situated in Berlin, so most likely has better access to the facts and information.

And there are good guys and bad guys on every side I’ve ever seen involved in politics, and I think to muddy the waters is very important now; if we look at what really went on, certainly there were extremists who were with the people on Maidan, along with a lot of well-meaning, freedom-loving, brave people who wanted a different kind of government. There was a mix of people with a mix of motivations going on there, but that muddies the clean narrative and frankly it ought to; the narrative is never clean, and we all have to be very, very hesitant about making it so. But, bottom-line here is that it certainly needs to be investigated and certainly we need to look into it, and when we are talking to the people in the new transitional government, now in the West, particularly with Europe, there is the moment of maximum influence – you’re offering them market access to Europe, so be sure that you get something for that, and what you need to get is clear assurances that can be backed up on the rule of law, by moderates running things, by opening doors to southern and eastern Ukrainians, by pushing for a confederation that has an inclusive government; now they’ll listen to you, when you write the check, when you’ll let them in, you’ll never have so much leverage again; now is the time to really push for those things, rather quickly.
 
Ukraine crisis: Crimea is just the first step, say Moscow’s pro-Putin demonstrators
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Russian nationalist forces gathered in central Moscow on Monday to ask the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to take more decisive measures in Crimea.
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Several hundred people were holding Russian flags and banners reading “Sevastopol is a Russian city,” while leaders of nationalist movements were pronouncing that Crimea would help Russia "to restore its lost glory."
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**The well-known Russian nationalist Eduard Limonov said from the stage that Russia must return all its territories lost after the USSR collapse. And others agreed with him.
**
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“Kiev is mother of Russian cities, Crimea is just a first step,” said an activist of Velikoe Otechestvo party, while speaking from the stage…
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Several attendees at the rally suggested they had been compelled to attend in order to create the impression there was strong support among Russians for Mr Putin’s actions in Ukraine.
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Roman Kuznetsov, who was holding an anti-American banner, said he came to the rally because he wanted to support Russian authorities. But when asked what he thought about current Ukrainian authorities, he said he liked them.
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“I am not good at politics,” he said eventually.
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telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/10687659/Ukraine-crisis-Crimea-is-just-the-first-step-say-Moscows-pro-Putin-demonstrators.html
 
pepipop said:
Yep, I’m afraid Dr Hulsman is now talking to the big, bad, ruskies. It was a very neutral, straight forward and informative interview. He didn’t have any axe to grind, just gave straight forward facts.

rt.com/shows/sophieco/ukraine-economy-rescue-politics-810/
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It doesn’t really matter who Hulsman is talking to. Anyone associated how ever briefly with the Heritage Foundation must be viewed with a Jaundiced eye.

ATB
 
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