Wisconsin election number, 3.2 million voted out of 3.6 million registered voters

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billsherman said:
Once again, you are either falling to understand the pre-election polling, or are willfully constructing a false narrative to support your evidence-free claims of fraud. Please take a solid look at this article about various pre-election polls. While the possibility of a landslide for Biden existed, it was hardly the only possible outcome (and was generally considered unlikely)
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billsherman said:
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gam197:
Even the pollsters of the left are saying they got it wrong.
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You didn’t read the article I posted. Until you do, I’m afraid you will continue to not understand my point.
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I did read and listen to Nate Silver and he basically says there are margins.
That said, Biden’s current lead of 8 to 9 points nationally is quite large given our highly polarized political environment, so maybe a few of the remaining undecided voters will drift to Trump. Don’t be surprised if Biden drops to 86 percent — or jumps to 94 percent — in our final forecast.
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That is a pretty good average, an 8 to 9 point lead from the polls.
"State polling averages for Clinton pre-election and her final margin of errors in that statistics.

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What if polls are as wrong as 2016? Biden still wins"​

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State polling averages for Clinton pre-election and her final margin in that state. Current state polling averages for Biden, and what the margin would be if the 2016 errors were repeated

Takeaway? Joe Biden would win. In fact, he’d win 335 electoral votes, including those in Florida, Georgia and Arizona. A lot of these wins would be close — he’d win by around 2 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, by and less than 1 point in Florida, Georgia and Pennsylvania, so he’d have to sweat a bit, but he’d win.
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His margins on voting are not off but the number of states is off. Trump did pull Florida , Ohio and Texas even if by small margins.

He does say it is possible that things change and a Trump victory could happen but he does not expect it. He explains different scenarios.

Is there something you wanted me to specifically find in the article?
 
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gam197 said:
Is there something you wanted me to specifically find in the article?
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I wanted you to appreciate two things: 1) that you are way off when you suggest that polls expected an 11-17 point win for Biden (some outliers might have, but exceptions prove the rule), and 2) that polling is not an exact science. Margin of error is a thing. Biden’s victory was well within the bounds of polling predictions.
 
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billsherman said:
I wanted you to appreciate two things: 1) that you are way off when you suggest that polls expected an 11-17 point win for Biden (some outliers might have, but exceptions prove the rule)
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Yes there were some who predicted an even wider margin of victory above the normal 8 to 9 percent range and it is very annoying to keep hearing this. CNN, NBC, and ABC predicted on a regular basic. Here CNN is talking with Pew pollster and asking her but look at the picture projected and all the Biden wins and the margins of win - +!!(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

You have Reuters, USA Today, Quinnepac, , NYT, Susquehanna, and CNN - all these polls and major networks showing their data and stating Biden is way ahead. This is being shown daily on the TV screen.
 
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billsherman said:
I wanted you to appreciate two things: 1) that you are way off when you suggest that polls expected an 11-17 point win for Biden (some outliers might have, but exceptions prove the rule), and 2) that polling is not an exact science. Margin of error is a thing. Biden’s victory was well within the bounds of polling predictions.
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And there have been confessions of Pollees lying to the pollster. Even at least one CAF member here confessed to lying to Pollsters, I remember the conversation…
 
Here is an example of the analysis that is coming out and it is not friendly to Biden.


From the article:
in Wisconsin, data suggests that there are issues that need looking into in 5 counties in particular: Washington, St. Croix, Dane, Waukesha, and Ozaukee Counties.

Why these counties? Well, in particular, these are the counties in which Joe Biden beat Barack Obama’s turnout by double digits. In 57 of Wisconsin’s counties, Biden underperformed Obama’s turnout, in some counties by as much as 28%. In 37 of those counties, Biden underperformed Obama’s turnout by double digits. When factored for population losses, that number rises to 41. In another 16 counties, Biden underperformed Obama by single digits. In 10 counties, Biden overperformed Obama, but in 3 of those counties, when factored for population losses since 2012, did not beat Obama’s 2012 turnout. In Trump’s column, Trump beat the 2012 turnout in every county except 4 and his 2016 turnout in every county in Wisconsin. That means that Trump improved in 95% of counties while Biden lost in 80% of counties. To simplify even further, Trump averaged a 30.31% average increase in Wisconsin over 2012 and a 16.39% increase over 2016. To compare that to Biden’s tally of an average underperformance of Obama by 8.51% over 2012 and a 17.39% increase over Clinton’s 2016 performance. That leaves us with our 5 counties in question.
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Next the author goes through each of the five counties in detail. You can read that there. But he reaches the conclusion that while he can’t call this fraud, it is worth investigating.
What’s the point of all this? Trump’s data follows a natural and reasonable distribution. Where Trump did better, he did better than Romney almost as a rule. When Biden did better, he did better than Clinton in every county, which is to be expected, but still lagged over Obama in the majority of counties, many bordering these massive growth counties. If I were the Trump campaign, I would be looking at each of these counties with a magnifying glass. In totality, in those five counties, Biden beat Obama by 83,291 votes, in a state where Biden beat Trump by just 20,000 votes. Am I saying it is 100% fraud? Without being able to be inside the offices in each of these counties, I cannot, but what I am saying is the statistical nature of this forensic vote audit shows that these 5 counties didn’t just buck the trend, they bucked it by double-digit percentages. That… That is what requires some additional review.

Update: A reader asked about the total turnout in these 5 counties. The state is 92% total turnout. The 5 counties are Washington at 96.6%, St. Croix at 96%(95.99%), Dane at 90.38%, Waukesha at 94.56% and, Ozaukee at 94.96%.
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Rather than casting “ad hominems” against the source, go pull the numbers yourself and see what you come up with. Or find a source that pulls that data and puts your spin on it.
 
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RidgeSprinter said:
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gam197:
I have never been polled but wish they would.
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Would you lie?
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No if I felt a need to lie, say I was having my picture taken, I just would refuse to take the poll. . I get why some people lie, as it could affect their job and they want no controversy but then why even take the poll.
 
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gam197 said:
No if I felt a need to lie, say I was having my picture taken, I just would refuse to take the poll. . I get why some people lie, as it could affect their job but then why even take the poll.
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Majority of Polls are done via the phone.

So I ask again.

Would you lie?
 
People do lie. I do not know the percentages maybe the polls aggravate them and it is their way of getting back. I have no idea on why they lie.

I get angry when I see CNN, NBD ABC, PBC lie, or at least not set an honest picture with polls.

This poll was in regard to Florida and the Cnn commentator is talking to Pew Research.(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

I especially love the bottom headline as they talk about how polls can be trusted. Just plan biased throw on TV day after day and there is no honesty.
 
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