What states are “the Trump states?”
The ones that beat Spade States this hand
:crazy_face:
Speaking statistically, we kind of
planned on this with the whole “curve flattening” thing. That is, we made a
deliberate effort to kick as many cases down the road as we could, so as to have more resources available per case, as well as more experience by the time some came.
This is
not saying that we chose two cases, a now and a later, instead of one, but rather that given the choice of two now, and one now and another later, the second will give us more survivors and fewer of the more serious cases.
Also, as we get better at testing, and test more widely, it would be rather odd if we did
not find more, even if the prevalence was unchanged.
As far as a herd resistance, again speaking statistically, it’s part of the package. The bottom line is to get the R, the number of additional cases from each new case, below 1 (ideally, as far below as possible).
Consider a bunch of people listed on a checkerboard (no, they don’t live there!). Now draw a line between each pair that came into contact with each other. Make the line darker if they came within six feet or were coughing, and lighter if they wore protection. Now, for each of those lines, draw lines half as wide to each person the
other came into contact to, and then again, quarter wide, to each person
those people came in contact with. You could repeat again for eight and sixteenth, but by fourths you nave most of if.
At this point, you will have a web of threads. The thicker/darker the web, the more ways to spread.
Each incremental thing (masks, more distance, sneezing, touching eyes) reduces or increases how much of this web there is. Each other person in a mask makes
you safer by an increment, even though it is no protection to the
wearer.
And when we mix in things like how contagious it is, how many cases are known in time and take extra precautions, general health, wind, and such, thee is an R value.
Each thread we can remove reduces the R. We can remove
all of the lines to people who are not susceptible to catching it, perhaps by still having resistance (but there is evidence that that is less strong for this thing than we’re used to). Each better precaution lightens the threads to which it applies, and so forth. And each unprotected gathering make more heavy lines . . .
The is far from a perfect example, and can no doubt be improved. But I have an
extremely abstract mind, and I’m trying to turn high dimensional math into a visual example . . .
