One of my observations is that Pope Francis seems to be employing a different branding strategy. He is de-emphasizing the strident proclamations of infallible certainty and emphasizing emotional appeals to compassion. His message seems to be “become a Catholic to enhance your love of others because Jesus, etc” rather than “submit to the Roman Pontiff and believe these specific dogmas or burn in endless hell, sinners!” The latter strategy doesn’t work too well on increasing numbers of people since the 18th century or so. I think it makes sense to shift emphasis.
That said, it is a tough question to answer whether it is more reasonable to be an atheist or theist. I think a decision chart could be made for this. There are a lot of contingencies and “if-then” operators since there are so many gods to believe in simultaneously. Some of them are exclusivist and others inclusivist. It’s a very tough choice. I guess maybe believing in Allah is the most practical. That way, if Islam turns out to be true, you’re good. If Judaism is true, also good, ditto with atheism, Hinduism, and inclusivist forms of Christianity. I suppose if exclusivist forms of Christianity are true, then you’re outta luck.
But, if you subscribe to any other religious belief and Islam turns out to be true, it’s endless hell for you! So, if you are trying to maximize your chances of avoiding eternal torture, Islam seems like the most reasonable choice.