Clinton Up 6 on Trump in Two-Way Race in Bloomberg National Poll

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Sy_Noe said:
This illustrates the difficult road ahead for Donald Trump. The site below has 10 tossups. And while I don’t necessarily think he will win all of these states, even if he wins 9 of the 10, Ohio, PA, NH, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada. Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, he loses if Hillary Clinton wins FL.

270towin.com/maps/gG32E
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It doesn’t look good. I don’t know why people have stated that the Democrats are afraid. What’s to be afraid of?
 
Good_Tidings said:
It doesn’t look good. I don’t know why people have stated that the Democrats are afraid. What’s to be afraid of?
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Chuck Todd was saying today that even though Republican registrations are up in some places that does not translate into new votes for the Republican at the top of the ticket. Because some of those are simply people who have been voting Republican for quite some time and are just updating their registrations this year or did so to vote in the primary. OTOH Latino registration is up in places like FL and they represent new Democratic voters this year. In defense of Donald Trump though, I imagine it’s not easy opening a campaign by comparing Mexicans to rapists and calling for the deportation of 11 million people, many of whom have built lives here and have families here, some of whom might even be in our church pews, and then expect to have an easy time of it. And going around having criticized a judge because of his Mexican heritage and going around to white crowds acting as if a majority of blacks are in such dire straits, along with other commentary by Donald Trump, probably doesn’t exactly help matters either.
 
Good_Tidings said:
I agree with most of what you wrote. I don’t want to live in an echo chamber either; but why do you think the country needs a strong, principled, unified conservative voice. Why not a progressive voice?
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The country needs both, GT. The Progressive voice is, imho, strong, principled and unified. We need the opposite for things to work properly. I’m heartbroken at what has happened to the Republican Party of my youth.
 
Good_Tidings said:
It doesn’t look good. I don’t know why people have stated that the Democrats are afraid. What’s to be afraid of?
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Certainly not the current Republican Party standard bearer. I bear him no ill will, but as a politician, he’s a fraud. And he’s running his fraud against the most powerful political machine of my lifetime. There’s no chance that this ends in his victory.
 
gilliam said:
Actually, lately he has calmed down on what he posts to Twitter, and it looks like he got the message.

It looks like the Democrats are starting to worry, that is why, I think, the personal attacks now are being increased on Trump and those around him.
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Well, no. He did something similar to what he did after the Orlando shooting.

He politicized the shooting death of the cousin of a NBA player.
Dwyane Wade’s cousin was just shot and killed walking her baby in Chicago. Just what I have been saying. African-Americans will VOTE TRUMP!
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The condolence tweet came after about an hour.

In the film, Dangerous Liaisons, Valmont is a scoundrel. Yet he knows how to sway public opinion of him to positive by publicly giving some bread and coins to a beggar.

Trump didn’t even do that. If he said, “How can I help?” to the family, he would have perhaps gotten some positive PR for his campaign, maybe from those who are undecided.

But his tweet, really was a campaign push, devoid of empathy.

Sigh.
 
Mary_Gail_36 said:
Well, no. He did something similar to what he did after the Orlando shooting.

He politicized the shooting death of the cousin of a NBA player.

The condolence tweet came after about an hour.

In the film, Dangerous Liaisons, Valmont is a scoundrel. Yet he knows how to sway public opinion of him to positive by publicly giving some bread and coins to a beggar.

Trump didn’t even do that. If he said, “How can I help?” to the family, he would have perhaps gotten some positive PR for his campaign, maybe from those who are undecided.

But his tweet, really was a campaign push, devoid of empathy.

Sigh.
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Seems like Trump got it right, unfortunately this incident happened to prove what he’s been saying
 
Sy_Noe said:
This illustrates the difficult road ahead for Donald Trump. The site below has 10 tossups. And while I don’t necessarily think he will win all of these states, even if he wins 9 of the 10, Ohio, PA, NH, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada. Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, he loses if Hillary Clinton wins FL.

270towin.com/maps/gG32E
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I clicked your link, and looked at the “2012 actual” map and then gave Trump Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Michigan. All states that he could conceivably win. That gave Trump 272 to Clinton with 266 and in that map Clinton would win Wisonsin, New Hampshire, Virginia and Florida. States that Trump is also competing in.
 
FIRST EMERSON POLL OF THE GENERAL ELECTION SHOWS A CLOSE RACE IN OHIO, MICHIGAN, AND PENNSYLVANIA; GOP SENATE SEATS LOOK SAFE
BOSTON, MA - Three new Emerson College polls show a tight race shaping up between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump in the key Rust Belt States of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The two are deadlocked at 43% in Ohio. Clinton leads by three points in Pennsylvania (46% to 43%) and by five in Michigan (45% to 40%). The Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson garners 7% of the vote in Pennsylvania and Michigan and 10% in Ohio. Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2% of the vote in Ohio and Pennsylvania and 3% in Michigan. Each poll consisted of 800 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
These are Emerson College’s first general election polls since the primaries; Bloomberg Politics ranked Emerson as the most accurate collegiate polling group in the U.S. during the primary season, with a record of correctly predicting the primary winner 94% of the time.
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media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_865ec63b1c494be78da4af7d7834766c.pdf
 
From today’s Guardian:
The New York Times Upshot model gives Democrats a 57% chance of winning the Senate, and may even seriously erode the Republican party’s tighter grip on the House of Representatives.
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Such is the worry that more than 70 Republicans recently sent an open letter to the party’s national chairman, Reince Priebus, urging him to divert resources away from the race for the White House and towards protecting the lead in Congress.
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“If it’s truly a [Clinton] landslide, even the House may be at risk as well,” former Bob Dole spokesman Andrew Weinstein, a vocal anti-Trump Republican who helped organise the petition, told MSNBC last week.
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“This guy is the Titanic. He is sinking, and right now the RNC is locking everyone in the boiler room and claiming we’ll all be fine. What we should be doing is putting out the lifeboats.”
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theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/29/donald-trump-nascar-north-carolina-republicans
 
_Abyssinia said:
I clicked your link, and looked at the “2012 actual” map and then gave Trump Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Michigan. All states that he could conceivably win. That gave Trump 272 to Clinton with 266 and in that map Clinton would win Wisonsin, New Hampshire, Virginia and Florida. States that Trump is also competing in.
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According to Nate Silver’s historical chart, there was a very short period where Trump’s chances of winning were greater (just barely) than Clinton’s. But that was around the time of the RNC. There are still three debates left. Maybe the last debate can give him that slight edge again. Just sayin… I am voting for neither.
 
Thorolfr said:
From today’s Guardian:

theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/29/donald-trump-nascar-north-carolina-republicans
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In a way I’m a little surprised it’s only 57% at this time given how much more favourable the map is for a Democrats retaking a majority in the Senate. Time will tell but Republicans had a tough map with the Senate before Trump was ever the nominee. Republicans have a much better map in 2018. According to the following infomation, Democrats have at tough map in 2018 and not a great map in 2020 either:
If Democrats don’t retake the Senate majority this year, they face the prospect of a long winter in the minority, because the 2018 map puts them at a severe disadvantage that could leave them even further from the majority and any pick-up opportunities for the foreseeable future.
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Just as this year’s Senate field offers ample opportunity for Democrats to pick up seats, the next election is stacked for the Republicans, and the one that follows has limited possibilities for Democratic gains.
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If Democrats have a narrow victory for a majority this year, it seems doubtful they will keep it much longer than 2 years.
 
The Clinton media is more interested in a tweet than the tragic death of a black mother in Chicago. Disgusting!
 
_Abyssinia said:
If Democrats have a narrow victory for a majority this year, it seems doubtful they will keep it much longer than 2 years.
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Of course the first two years of a Clinton administration would be very important since more than a thousand appointments to positions in the federal government requiring Senate confirmation would take place then not to mention the confirmation of a new Supreme Court justice.
 
_Abyssinia said:
In a way I’m a little surprised it’s only 57% at this time given how much more favourable the map is for a Democrats retaking a majority in the Senate. Time will tell but Republicans had a tough map with the Senate before Trump was ever the nominee. Republicans have a much better map in 2018. According to the following infomation, Democrats have at tough map in 2018 and not a great map in 2020 either:
If Democrats have a narrow victory for a majority this year, it seems doubtful they will keep it much longer than 2 years.
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Assuming a Democratic majority in the Senate during those two years, there will be a lot of judges and other administration nominees affirmed by the Senate. As for the legislative agenda, if the GOP retains a majority in the House, there will be minimal movement on legislation, I suspect.
 
_Abyssinia said:
I clicked your link, and looked at the “2012 actual” map and then gave Trump Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Michigan. All states that he could conceivably win. That gave Trump 272 to Clinton with 266 and in that map Clinton would win Wisonsin, New Hampshire, Virginia and Florida. States that Trump is also competing in.
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I agree if you give Trump all of those states. Even Kellyanne Conway told Chris Matthews recently that her paths include PA. The thing is most of the polls that RCP tracks over the past month have shown Clinton up by double digits in PA. With an average advantage for Clinton of +8.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

And MI is a similar story.

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html
 
adowcday said:
Assuming a Democratic majority in the Senate during those two years, there will be a lot of judges and other administration nominees affirmed by the Senate. As for the legislative agenda, if the GOP retains a majority in the House, there will be minimal movement on legislation, I suspect.
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Maybe minimal movement on legislation is a good thing. How often, for example, does the Texas legislature meet? Isn’t it every two years, and then only for a short time?
 
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