Clinton Up 6 on Trump in Two-Way Race in Bloomberg National Poll

[_Abyssinia]

The recent Monmouth poll in Florida showed that blacks supported Clinton 91-5 and the CBS poll had it 85-4. The poll you mention seemed to oversample black Republican and Independent voters significantly (36% vs. just 18% of the Florida population) and is massively out of whack with the other polls, so I think we’re dealing with an outlier, if not outright flawed poll.

I presume from your comments that you think the Monmouth and CBS polls are more credible/accurate polls? Is that right? What is it about the internals of those two polls which make them better polls than the Florida Atlantic Univeristy poll?

Putting the Florida Atlantic University poll aside because it does appear to be oversampled, and based on the Monmouth and CBS polls that you cited, what those numbers mean is Trump is doing NO worse in Florida among Black people than Mitt Romney did. In fact, the Monmouth poll shows Trump getting one point more than Mitt Romney did. According to the following, 4% of Black voters voted for Mitt Romney in Florida in 2012:

elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/florida/president/

 

[_Abyssinia]

He is not reaching out to black voters. He is trying to get white voters either on the fence about him or those against him to think he cares about black voters. He does very well with whites without college degrees. He is underperforming among whites with college degrees though. Or if he is trying to make an effort, he isn’t pitching it well.

nytimes.com/2016/08/25/us/politics/donald-trump-black-voters.html?_r=0

washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/20/its-hard-to-imagine-a-much-worse-pitch-donald-trump-could-have-made-for-the-black-vote/

In the Fox News interview (on ‘Justice with Judge Jeanine’), Boris Epshteyn was asked by Melissa Francis whether the reaching out to Black people was attempt to reach out to moderates etc. and reassure them etc. and not specifically about trying to reach out to Black people and he said “absolutely not.” He said the campaign was “trying to reach out to all communities and as far as the African American community goes, of course we’re trying to reach out to them.”

 

[Al_Moritz]

Keep dreaming.

 

[Little_Sheep]

If you are right, then I guess Trump will do well with black voters.

Hahahahaha! Thanks for the morning chuckle.

Truth be told, the best thing Mr. Trump’s advisor’s could do for his campaign is shut down his Twitter account. The ongoing damage he does to his run via that platform is unbelievable.

 

[sallybutler]

Hahahahaha! Thanks for the morning chuckle.

Truth be told, the best thing Mr. Trump’s advisor’s could do for his campaign is shut down his Twitter account. The ongoing damage he does to his run via that platform is unbelievable.

 

[gilliam]

Hahahahaha! Thanks for the morning chuckle.

Truth be told, the best thing Mr. Trump’s advisor’s could do for his campaign is shut down his Twitter account. The ongoing damage he does to his run via that platform is unbelievable.

Actually, lately he has calmed down on what he posts to Twitter, and it looks like he got the message.

It looks like the Democrats are starting to worry, that is why, I think, the personal attacks now are being increased on Trump and those around him.

 

[DeniseNY]

It looks like the Democrats are starting to worry, that is why, I think, the personal attacks now are being increased on Trump and those around him.

With Clinton losing seven points in some polls, it might be time to worry. We’ll also see what happens when Assange drops whatever it is he has on her.

 

[Michael68]

Actually, lately he has calmed down on what he posts to Twitter, and it looks like he got the message.

It looks like the Democrats are starting to worry, that is why, I think, the personal attacks now are being increased on Trump and those around him.

I agree. The media complains about issues as they defame Trump and his supporters. Yes, they (Clinton and her media) are worried

 

[Good_Tidings]

I agree. The media complains about issues as they defame Trump and his supporters. Yes, they (Clinton and her media) are worried

How is it defamation to point out what they actually say and write?

 

[Michael68]

How is it defamation to point out what they actually say and write?

How about a little fairness? Black Lives Matter is a racist organization the media has made mainstream. The Black Panthers are the black KKK and so on.
Talk about the pot calling the kettle, um black

 

[dasoul]

I presume from your comments that you think the Monmouth and CBS polls are more credible/accurate polls? Is that right? What is it about the internals of those two polls which make them better polls than the Florida Atlantic Univeristy poll?

I think it is important to look at a multitude of polls instead of a single poll. If one poll gives a result that is a lot different than other polls, then it is important to question it. You point to a Florida Atlantic poll. So, I thought, golly, that is different than what I’ve seen in other polls nationally. I could cite those, but I take it you are well versed in poll reading, so you can go look those up. Now is this a Florida thing? I can’t think of any reason that Florida would be different than the rest of the country. So, I look at the 3 most recent polls on Real Clear Politics for Florida and found that 2 had breakdowns by race and I listed those. So, the FAU poll goes against both national trends and other recent state polling, so I examined the tabs to look for discrepancies and found the oversampling, so I mention that as an issue.

It is important to look at many polls. A poll’s margin of error is a 95% confidence level and that means that there is a 5% chance the poll falls outside the MOE. Furthermore, even though it is unstated, the MOE is larger in the subgroups (like blacks) because only a portion that is surveyed are in that subgroup. So, when you get an odd result, it might be part of that 5% and you need more data. Also, it is unwise to cherry pick a poll that gives you a result you like.

Putting the Florida Atlantic University poll aside because it does appear to be oversampled, and based on the Monmouth and CBS polls that you cited, what those numbers mean is Trump is doing NO worse in Florida among Black people than Mitt Romney did. In fact, the Monmouth poll shows Trump getting one point more than Mitt Romney did. According to the following, 4% of Black voters voted for Mitt Romney in Florida in 2012:

elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/florida/president/

It is possible that Trump will do no worse than Romney among blacks. The challenge (IMO) for Trump in Florida is that many Hispanics see him as racist and that he cannot underperform Romney with minorities and expect to win Florida

 

[_Abyssinia]

I think it is important to look at a multitude of polls instead of a single poll. If one poll gives a result that is a lot different than other polls, then it is important to question it. You point to a Florida Atlantic poll. So, I thought, golly, that is different than what I’ve seen in other polls nationally. I could cite those, but I take it you are well versed in poll reading, so you can go look those up. Now is this a Florida thing? I can’t think of any reason that Florida would be different than the rest of the country. So, I look at the 3 most recent polls on Real Clear Politics for Florida and found that 2 had breakdowns by race and I listed those. So, the FAU poll goes against both national trends and other recent state polling, so I examined the tabs to look for discrepancies and found the oversampling, so I mention that as an issue.

It is important to look at many polls. A poll’s margin of error is a 95% confidence level and that means that there is a 5% chance the poll falls outside the MOE. Furthermore, even though it is unstated, the MOE is larger in the subgroups (like blacks) because only a portion that is surveyed are in that subgroup. So, when you get an odd result, it might be part of that 5% and you need more data. Also, it is unwise to cherry pick a poll that gives you a result you like.

It is possible that Trump will do no worse than Romney among blacks. The challenge (IMO) for Trump in Florida is that many Hispanics see him as racist and that he cannot underperform Romney with minorities and expect to win Florida

You commented on post #118 about Independents and Black Republicans being 18% of the population in Florida, (I am not sure why you mix Black Republicans and Independents as one percentage when they are two different groups and how do you know what percentage of Floridians are Black Republicans?), but according to the following analyses, in 2012, 33% of the voters in Florida considered themselves, “Independent or something else”: elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/florida/president/

You pointed out in that post that the poll has 36% of Independents… well that is closer to what the actual voter turnout was of Independents in Florida in 2012. I am not sure actually that the Florida Atlantic Univeristy is not credible in regards to the sample.

There appears to be room for Trump to improve with White voters in Florida. What this article calls “missing voters”: “In the case of Florida, Trump would need to win only 58 percent of “missing” whites to erase Obama’s 2012 margin” - fivethirtyeight.com/features/missing-white-voters-might-help-trump-but-less-so-where-he-needs-it/

I don’t know what percentage of minorities Trump would need to win if he improves with Whites there, it depends…

 

[_Abyssinia]

You commented on post #118 about Independents and Black Republicans being 18% of the population in Florida, (I am not sure why you mix Black Republicans and Independents as one percentage when they are two different groups and how do you know what percentage of Floridians are Black Republicans?), but according to the following analyses, in 2012, 33% of the voters in Florida considered themselves, “Independent or something else”: elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/florida/president/

You pointed out in that post that the poll has 36% of Independents… well that is closer to what the actual voter turnout was of Independents in Florida in 2012. I am not sure actually that the Florida Atlantic Univeristy is not credible in regards to the sample.

There appears to be room for Trump to improve with White voters in Florida. What this article calls “missing voters”: “In the case of Florida, Trump would need to win only 58 percent of “missing” whites to erase Obama’s 2012 margin” - fivethirtyeight.com/features/missing-white-voters-might-help-trump-but-less-so-where-he-needs-it/

I don’t know what percentage of minorities Trump would need to win if he improves with Whites there, it depends…

Correction for my paragraph regarding Five Thirty Eight link, “missing” not “missing voters”

 

[dasoul]

You commented on post #118 about Independents and Black Republicans being 18% of the population in Florida, (I am not sure why you mix Black Republicans and Independents as one percentage when they are two different groups and how do you know what percentage of Floridians are Black Republicans?), but according to the following analyses, in 2012, 33% of the voters in Florida considered themselves, “Independent or something else”: elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/florida/president/

You pointed out in that post that the poll has 36% of Independents… well that is closer to what the actual voter turnout was of Independents in Florida in 2012. I am not sure actually that the Florida Atlantic Univeristy is not credible in regards to the sample.

I based my comment on this sayfiereview.com/page/Who%20and%20Where%20are%20Floridas%20Democrats%20and%20Republicans.

Now, you can see this only puts 20% of all Floridians as independent as opposed to the 33% in your link. I found this article (sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-republicans-long-for-black-voters-20130608-story.html) that also indicates that the percentage of independent and Republican voters among blacks is about 17%. Two possibilities: one, FAU oversampled non-Democratic blacks or two, the percentage of people that self-report a party affiliation are different than actual party affiliation. I’m sticking by the former, but the latter is possible. That said, I don’t have much faith in that portion of the FAU poll.

There appears to be room for Trump to improve with White voters in Florida. What this article calls “missing voters”: “In the case of Florida, Trump would need to win only 58 percent of “missing” whites to erase Obama’s 2012 margin” - fivethirtyeight.com/features/missing-white-voters-might-help-trump-but-less-so-where-he-needs-it/

I don’t know what percentage of minorities Trump would need to win if he improves with Whites there, it depends…

I’m not particularly buying that Trump is going to find a lot of missing white voters. It seems he is doing worse among Catholic whites than Romney. I think as many that come out to support him that didn’t support Romney will be offset by those that supported Romney and sit this one out. People like Archbishop Chaput for example, seem particularly challenged to support Trump, but I don’t doubt their support for Romney (not as a Church teaching, but rather, as a personal choice).

 

[_Abyssinia]

I based my comment on this sayfiereview.com/page/Who%20and%20Where%20are%20Floridas%20Democrats%20and%20Republicans.

Now, you can see this only puts 20% of all Floridians as independent as opposed to the 33% in your link. I found this article (sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-republicans-long-for-black-voters-20130608-story.html) that also indicates that the percentage of independent and Republican voters among blacks is about 17%. Two possibilities: one, FAU oversampled non-Democratic blacks or two, the percentage of people that self-report a party affiliation are different than actual party affiliation. I’m sticking by the former, but the latter is possible. That said, I don’t have much faith in that portion of the FAU poll.

I’m not particularly buying that Trump is going to find a lot of missing white voters. It seems he is doing worse among Catholic whites than Romney. I think as many that come out to support him that didn’t support Romney will be offset by those that supported Romney and sit this one out. People like Archbishop Chaput for example, seem particularly challenged to support Trump, but I don’t doubt their support for Romney (not as a Church teaching, but rather, as a personal choice).

Why should that number in your link be more accurate or taken more seriously than NBC’s number? NBC do say “Independent to something else” but presumably that is vastly made up of Independents and it comes out at 33% overall for that question.

You may not buy it, but the article I posted says, “there’s plenty of room for white turnout to improve.”

 

[Little_Sheep]

Actually, lately he has calmed down on what he posts to Twitter, and it looks like he got the message.

It looks like the Democrats are starting to worry, that is why, I think, the personal attacks now are being increased on Trump and those around him.

I truly have nothing against Donald Trump. But he’s an entertainer and not an experienced statesman.This has been obvious since the day he threw his hat into the ring. I think most people in our country want someone with governing experience to assume the mantle of POTUS. I understand that not everyone wants that - a real percentage thinks government is corrupt beyond measure. I don’t.

Personally, I think Trump is shocked that he actually ran away with the nomination. And I think he ran away wth the nomination because the Republican Party is deeply fractured and has been for some time, particularly on a national level. Imho, the Republicans have lost the right to lead us. They need to get their own house in order. There is no way in the world that they will order their house behind Mr. Trump.

I do NOT want to live in a Democratic echo chamber. I believe that our country needs a strong, principled, unified Conservative voice. It is good for America to have both sides converse and find the best path. For me, that’s the Middle Way.

I certainly don’t have a sense that Democrats are starting to worry. I personally believe that Trump himself knows his bid is already lost. I wish him the best in whatever comes next, but I can’t even pretend for the sake of argument that our country will elect him as our 45th President.

 

[Little_Sheep]

I think it is important to look at a multitude of polls instead of a single poll. If one poll gives a result that is a lot different than other polls, then it is important to question it. You point to a Florida Atlantic poll. So, I thought, golly, that is different than what I’ve seen in other polls nationally. I could cite those, but I take it you are well versed in poll reading, so you can go look those up. Now is this a Florida thing? I can’t think of any reason that Florida would be different than the rest of the country. So, I look at the 3 most recent polls on Real Clear Politics for Florida and found that 2 had breakdowns by race and I listed those. So, the FAU poll goes against both national trends and other recent state polling, so I examined the tabs to look for discrepancies and found the oversampling, so I mention that as an issue.

It is important to look at many polls. A poll’s margin of error is a 95% confidence level and that means that there is a 5% chance the poll falls outside the MOE. Furthermore, even though it is unstated, the MOE is larger in the subgroups (like blacks) because only a portion that is surveyed are in that subgroup. So, when you get an odd result, it might be part of that 5% and you need more data. Also, it is unwise to cherry pick a poll that gives you a result you like.

It is possible that Trump will do no worse than Romney among blacks. The challenge (IMO) for Trump in Florida is that many Hispanics see him as racist and that he cannot underperform Romney with minorities and expect to win Florida

Nate Silver’s polling is the thing to watch.

 

[dasoul]

Why should that number in your link be more accurate or taken more seriously than NBC’s number? NBC do say “Independent to something else” but presumably that is vastly made up of Independents and it comes out at 33% overall for that question.

I’m not saying it is as I stated two possibilities. Remember that the 33% number was all Florida voters and not just blacks. I found two sources that suggest the number of blacks not registered as Democrats are in the high teens. The FAU poll has them at 36%. I haven’t found a source that suggests that the percentage of black voters that aren’t Democrats is higher, but your 33% suggests it might very well be. Perhaps you want to look for a source that suggests that the number of blacks that are not Democratic is higher, but it won’t change the fact that the FAU poll is very inconsistent with the other available data.

You may not buy it, but the article I posted says, “there’s plenty of room for white turnout to improve.”

I’m not denying there is room to improve. I’m denying that Trump is the one to do it, as you can see good people like Archbishop Chaput struggling to decide if he is worth the vote.

 

[Good_Tidings]

I truly have nothing against Donald Trump. But he’s an entertainer and not an experienced statesman.This has been obvious since the day he threw his hat into the ring. I think most people in our country want someone with governing experience to assume the mantle of POTUS. I understand that not everyone wants that - a real percentage thinks government is corrupt beyond measure. I don’t.

Personally, I think Trump is shocked that he actually ran away with the nomination. And I think he ran away wth the nomination because the Republican Party is deeply fractured and has been for some time, particularly on a national level. Imho, the Republicans have lost the right to lead us. They need to get their own house in order. There is no way in the world that they will order their house behind Mr. Trump.

I do NOT want to live in a Democratic echo chamber. I believe that our country needs a strong, principled, unified Conservative voice. It is good for America to have both sides converse and find the best path. For me, that’s the Middle Way.

I certainly don’t have a sense that Democrats are starting to worry. I personally believe that Trump himself knows his bid is already lost. I wish him the best in whatever comes next, but I can’t even pretend for the sake of argument that our country will elect him as our 45th President.

I agree with most of what you wrote. I don’t want to live in an echo chamber either; but why do you think the country needs a strong, principled, unified conservative voice. Why not a progressive voice?

 

[Sy_Noe]

This illustrates the difficult road ahead for Donald Trump. The site below has 10 tossups. And while I don’t necessarily think he will win all of these states, even if he wins 9 of the 10, Ohio, PA, NH, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada. Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, he loses if Hillary Clinton wins FL.

270towin.com/maps/gG32E