J
Joe_5859
Guest
You’re correct with the math, but I don’t think you’re right to conclude that Wisconsin is do-or-die for Cruz. Possibly you’ve been hearing stuff like “If there’s a contested convention, then they should give the nomination to Donald Trump automatically” (it is hard *not *to hear that, given how often it is said on mainstream media). However that is based on two assumptions, both of which are false:
- That Trump will have a plurality on the first ballot
- That whoever has a plurality on the first ballot should automatically get the nomination
Thanks. So it’s looking increasingly unlikely that Cruz will win the majority of delegates before the convention, but it is conceivable for him to prevent Trump from doing so either and forcing a brokered convention.Donald Trump has 739, so he needs 498 more delegates to win the nomination outright. If Cruz can win 314 more delegates, Mr. Trump cannot win on the first ballot. So then it goes to a brokered convention and things are up in the air. If Cruz can make a big run, and win even more, he will look much stronger as a candidate going into the convention.