Cruz Thread

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You’re correct with the math, but I don’t think you’re right to conclude that Wisconsin is do-or-die for Cruz. Possibly you’ve been hearing stuff like “If there’s a contested convention, then they should give the nomination to Donald Trump automatically” (it is hard *not *to hear that, given how often it is said on mainstream media). However that is based on two assumptions, both of which are false:
  • That Trump will have a plurality on the first ballot
  • That whoever has a plurality on the first ballot should automatically get the nomination
Donald Trump has 739, so he needs 498 more delegates to win the nomination outright. If Cruz can win 314 more delegates, Mr. Trump cannot win on the first ballot. So then it goes to a brokered convention and things are up in the air. If Cruz can make a big run, and win even more, he will look much stronger as a candidate going into the convention.
Thanks. So it’s looking increasingly unlikely that Cruz will win the majority of delegates before the convention, but it is conceivable for him to prevent Trump from doing so either and forcing a brokered convention.
 
You can feel that way if you choose. For the rest of us, we recognize it as a joke between two longtime friends that is in no way serious.
I don’t know why we’re talking about Glen Beck. But since we are, personally I’m not so sure it was alright for him to joke about attacking his producer like that. Mightn’t it have helped pave the way for a presidential candidate to say “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose voters” (which, after all, wasn’t a “serious” comment either)?
 
The only people claiming it was a threat to Trump are rabid Trump supporters. So it IS clear to most people.
TMC is not a rabid Trump supporter, not even close, so you might want to find a different argument. But really, never mind, we won’t agree.
 
In a speech Trump spelled it “Lyen”.
:rotfl: Yes he did. And his deliberate, slow (IMO arrogant) delivery of that “punch” line made it particularly funny in a way he doubtless did not intend.

But he’s made of teflon. It’s all but forgotten.

By comparison poor Dan Quayle’s “potatoe” spelling will never be forgotten. 🤷

(I felt bad for Quayle … who was merely pointing out the misspelling he had on the flash card he was issued). < Given the “new spellings” issued by such publications as the AP Style Guide etc., how would Quayle know if that was the “new” approved spelling of the word)? It still looked bad to be correcting the 5th grader who’d spelled potato correctly.

With Donald’s money, don’t be suprised if lyen or ly’en becomes an approved optional spelling in the next edition of somebody’s dictionary. 😉

(Please Note: This uploaded content is no longer available.)

" Lyin’ Ted … L-Y-E-N ! "
 
Crunching some numbers from Wikipedia, I see that Cruz has 465 delegates. It also looks like there are currently 811 delegates yet to come in upcoming primaries.

If Cruz wins all of them, he ends up with 1276 delegates—which is 39 delegates more than the 1237 needed to secure the nomination.

Now if, say, he loses Wisconsin in two weeks, he loses out on 42 delegates. Wouldn’t this mathematically eliminate him from winning the nomination outright?

Am I correct with the math? Is Wisconsin do-or-die for Cruz?
Donald Trump has 739, so he needs 498 more delegates to win the nomination outright. If Cruz can win 314 more delegates, Mr. Trump cannot win on the first ballot. So then it goes to a brokered convention and things are up in the air. If Cruz can make a big run, and win even more, he will look much stronger as a candidate going into the convention.
Good point. If we’re going to say that getting 1237 delegates is “do or die” for Ted Cruz, then why wouldn’t we say the same about Donald Trump (unless “What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander” has been thrown out the window)?
 
It is particularly irresponsible for a public figure to joke about assassinating a presidential candidate.
I agree that Beck lost it on that comment; it was highly inappropriate. I gave up as a supporter/admirer of Beck’s brand of social conservatism years ago. He is a little out there. But that is not to say that he reflects Cruz’ views. Trump has had to contend with the whole David Duke/KKK debacle. And Trump has made many highly inappropriate comments that are similar in tone, including the ‘I could kill a man on 5th Avenue and not lose support’. I wonder if Beck would have made this comment about Rubio or Kasich, if they were the front runner? In other words, the goalposts have been moved on what is acceptable (‘effective’) rhetoric. The punch of political incorrectness is the new ‘cool’ campaign lingo.

And, back to the election, I was happy to see Cruz’ numbers in Utah. Arizona included early voting going to back to before Rubio dropped out of the race - between Super Tuesday and pre Florida. Rubio had 17% of the early AZ voting. Utah votes where fresh from yesterday. The battle goes on…

But, alas, this GOP vale of tears is still doomed either way. Everyone is so worried about fracturing the party at the convention - we are so already there. And no one is going to put us back together again. It is time to accept our new post-fracture world. The battle continues in earnest, but is now about what the GOP stands for, identity, not winning in November - that is that fuzzy little dot in the rear view mirror…
 
Thanks. So it’s looking increasingly unlikely that Cruz will win the majority of delegates before the convention, but it is conceivable for him to prevent Trump from doing so either and forcing a brokered convention.
It seems to me that in a constitutional democracy the number of delegates necessary should have been predetermined to be proportional to the number of candidates involved
And so if a candidate with less regular delegates is picked over Trump I certainly can’t blame his following if they start throwing around some rotten vegetation. :eek: 😛
 
Let’s dispense with the personal remarks as per forum rules.
Do you agree with Cruz’s statement that Muslim neighborhoods in the US should be routinely ‘patrolled’ and ‘secured’?
I think it was an appalling, un-American statement, and one of the reasons I am wary of Cruz. For someone who is such a constitutionalist, he blew it on this one.

Follow up leads and investigate all of them thoroughly, but the sort of “profiling” he suggests is counterproductive and helps in radicalizing young Muslims, in my opinion.
 
It seems to me that in a constitutional democracy the number of delegates necessary should have been predetermined to be proportional to the number of candidates involved
And so if a candidate with less regular delegates is picked over Trump I certainly can’t blame his following if they start throwing around some rotten vegetation. :eek: 😛
Party primaries are a different animal completely from the general national elections. The Republicans set the number of delegates in each state based on the number of congressional districts, and then on several additional factors.
 
Thanks. So it’s looking increasingly unlikely that Cruz will win the majority of delegates before the convention, but it is conceivable for him to prevent Trump from doing so either and forcing a brokered convention.
It’s very doubtful Cruz can get to a majority. It is unlikely he can stop Trump from getting a majority, but his chances have increased over the last couple weeks. He has some momentum, but he needs to win a few more states. Right now Trump still looks like he will win it outright.
I don’t know why we’re talking about Glen Beck. But since we are, personally I’m not so sure it was alright for him to joke about attacking his producer like that. Mightn’t it have helped pave the way for a presidential candidate to say “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose voters” (which, after all, wasn’t a “serious” comment either)?
No. Donald Trump is responsible for what he says, and his joke to Stu had absolutely zero effect on his 5th Ave shooting comment.
I agree that Beck lost it on that comment; it was highly inappropriate.

I wonder if Beck would have made this comment about Rubio or Kasich, if they were the front runner? In other words, the goalposts have been moved on what is acceptable (‘effective’) rhetoric.
If Kasich or Rubio were the frontrunner, Beck would still have joked with Stu about stabbing him. No matter who is the frontrunner, Beck will joke with Stu. It’s what they do.
 
It seems to me that in a constitutional democracy the number of delegates necessary should have been predetermined to be proportional to the number of candidates involved
And so if a candidate with less regular delegates is picked over Trump I certainly can’t blame his following if they start throwing around some rotten vegetation. :eek: 😛
The GOP doesn’t have regular delegates and super-delegates (you’re thinking of the Dem Party). However, the rules “unbind” certain delegates in certain rounds, which could work in Trump’s favor but seems more likely to work in Cruz’s favor.
 
I agree that Trump deserves the nomination if he comes in short of 1237 but with the most delegates, especially if he has a wide lead on Cruz. But Trump running in the GOP party damages the brand, still alienates over 50% of the party. I don’t think these (Paul Ryan, GOP establishment, media, etc.) folks have much of a choice but to fight for their principles (and to be seen engaging in this fight for the history books). It is that or kiss your principles and party goodbye, along with the election. The GOP does have a right to exist, and not agree with Trump. 🙂

As I noted above, I think we have already fractured too much to gather enough votes to top the Democrats in November, especially unifying behind Trump or Cruz, who both fracture us and mobilize/unite Democrats. This struggle is now about the GOP platform, fiscally, socially, economically, international relations/responsibilities. The GOP base and the elite have increasingly divergent views on social issues (prolife v prochoice, anti v pro gay marriage), foreign policy (interventionism v isolationism), economics (big/small gov’t). Trump is widening the fissure.

Nobody knows where this will end up and how the convention will play out. There is something to the chill pill Kasich argument. Utah could be about more than Mormons disliking Trump; we could be turning a corner as we go into the last stretch; note that both Cruz and Kasich topped Trump. I know this thinking is far-fetched but why not play it out and hope for the best. What else is there to do. I would not be surprised to see Trump stopped yet, but I have been wrong all along, so there is no good reason to take that suggestion seriously…
 
I agree that Trump deserves the nomination if he comes in short of 1237 but with the most delegates, **especially if he has a wide lead on Cruz. **
The thing is, how wide? Mr. Trump has been setting up a slippery slope argument, I.e. that a brokered convention should just automatically give him the nomination, but otherwise who’s to say that Cruz couldn’t be 500 delegates short on the first ballot but eventually get the nomination?
 
I think it was an appalling, un-American statement, and one of the reasons I am wary of Cruz. For someone who is such a constitutionalist, he blew it on this one.

Follow up leads and investigate all of them thoroughly, but the sort of “profiling” he suggests is counterproductive and helps in radicalizing young Muslims, in my opinion.
👍
 
The thing is, how wide? Mr. Trump has been setting up a slippery slope argument, I.e. that a brokered convention should just automatically give him the nomination, but otherwise who’s to say that Cruz couldn’t be 500 delegates short on the first ballot but eventually get the nomination?
All I am saying is that I think that it is unfair to Trump and his supporters, if they in fact have a lead of 100, 200 or so, to deny him the nomination, second ballot or not. By that I mean it will be perceived by most people as unfair, justly. That Trump is being robbed. (I won’t deny that) They count their 40% of votes as a victory, right, because of the divided field. Others don’t see it that way.

I hope the GOP does stand firm and fight him down, regardless of the ensuing damage or the delegate count - Trump is lethal for the party and the damage will be incurred either way: giving in to him won’t fix anything or solve the problem. (problems with the brand: Muslims, women (Megyn Kelly), Mexicans, NATO, Israel flip flopping, the state of Romney’s Mormonism, the dirt on Cruz’ wife, etc etc etc etc etc = incompetence) And yes I do see riots in the streets if the GOP sticks to its guns and pushes the ‘high road’ aka the ‘competence road’.

I get the argument for the open convention where the party selects the nominee by vote where no candidate has outright won enough delegates. It was the norm up to 1950, I think, right? Since then we have given it to the candidate with the most delegates, no? So you can argue either way has precedence, and given the circumstances, giving it to Cruz is legitimate I guess - not that he’ll win in November.

This is so exciting, isn’t it?
 
All I am saying is that I think that it is unfair to Trump and his supporters, if they in fact have a lead of 100, 200 or so, to deny him the nomination, second ballot or not. By that I mean it will be perceived by most people as unfair, justly. That Trump is being robbed. (I won’t deny that) They count their 40% of votes as a victory, right, because of the divided field. Others don’t see it that way.

I hope the GOP does stand firm and fight him down, regardless of the ensuing damage or the delegate count - Trump is lethal for the party and the damage will be incurred either way: giving in to him won’t fix anything or solve the problem. (problems with the brand: Muslims, women (Megyn Kelly), Mexicans, NATO, Israel flip flopping, the state of Romney’s Mormonism, the dirt on Cruz’ wife, etc etc etc etc etc = incompetence) And yes I do see riots in the streets if the GOP sticks to its guns and pushes the ‘high road’ aka the ‘competence road’.

I get the argument for the open convention where the party selects the nominee by vote where no candidate has outright won enough delegates. It was the norm up to 1950, I think, right? Since then we have given it to the candidate with the most delegates, no? So you can argue either way has precedence, and given the circumstances, giving it to Cruz is legitimate I guess - not that he’ll win in November.

This is so exciting, isn’t it?
Yes, it is all very exciting, as well as sickening.
 
The GOP will back Trump. Never in a million years will they allow a contested convention. (with ONE caveat…they might orchestrate a “brokered” Convention (for theatre) and then come out, knees to the wall, in favor of TRUMP).
 
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