If I have a pack of cards and turn one over in turn, the chances of me getting a sequence of hearts, clubs, diamonds and spades, each from deuce to Ace in sequence is factorial 52. That’s 1 chance in (wait for it):
80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000.
If there were millions of people on millions of planets circling millions of stars in millions of galaxies, all dealing a hand every second of every year, there hasn’t been enough time since the universe began to even begin to come close to dealing such a hand.
Now let’s say that getting a heart was beneficial in some way. And a deuce of hearts is the most beneficial. It confers some advantage that would be kept. This is what evolution does. It keeps the small advantage (just 1 in 52) by keeping the entity alive just long enough to pass on that beneficial deuce of hearts gene.
Let’s say it takes me 30 seconds to deal the cards. No luck first time so I keep dealing until I get that deuce. It will take me, on average, 26 deals until it makes an appearance as the first card. That’s 13 minutes. I put it to one side and deal again until I get the three of hearts. It takes me another 13 minutes. I have an even greater advantage. I keep going until I have a full sequence. And I’m gaining benefits with every card.
It doesn’t need to be a mathematical genius to work out that it takes me just over 11 hours to get that full sequence. Compare that to the number above and try to understand that that is how evolution works. It doesn’t start from scratch each time. It keeps the benefit, however small and builds on that.
Enough already about ‘exceeding chance’.