Obama and Romney Hit the Final Stretch PT 2

[_Abyssinia]

NPR: Romney 48% Obama 47%

Yet another national poll suggests the race tied up, as a new National Public Radio survey shows Mitt Romney picking up 48% of the vote, while Barack Obama snags 47%.

The race is different, though, in the swing states, where Obama (in a smaller sample) takes a 50%-46% lead.
Here are the key, national stats:

a. Romney leads with independents, 51%-39%.

That’s similar to Romney’s 10% lead with indies in the TPM national average of indie polling. Again, it’s not clear how Obama can overcome a double-digit loss among independents.

b. Romney’s favorable rating is 51%/45%, while Obama’s is 51%/48%, which once again confirms the fact (reflected in the RCP average) that Romney’s net favorable rating is now, on average, higher than Obama’s.

Did anyone think we’d get to the point where Romney’s favorable rating actually bested Obama’s? Just an unbelievable reversal.

Here’s something to consider, though. Sandy might give the president’s favorable ratings a real boost as the country sees him managing the fallout. A boost in favorable ratings generally means a boost in votes and attributes across the board, so I’d expect a rebound for Obama on favorability.

. Obama’s approval rating sits at 49%/49% and at 42%/54% among independents.

But, on the economy, the president’s approval rating with indies drops to 39%/60%, although he fares better among all voters, at 47%/52%.

Again, though, depending on how serious and how visible Obama is during the Sandy crisis, his approval rating could jump significantly.

d. Romney leads on the economy and jobs, 50%-46%, and indies prefer him on the measure, 55%-36%.

e. Romney leads on the deficit and debt, 51%-43%, and indies pick him, 56%-33%, on the measure.

f. Romney leads Obama on taxes, 49%-47%, and indies prefer him on the issue, 52%-40%.

g. Obama leads Romney on healthcare, 48%-47%, but indies pick Romney, 48%-43%.

h. Obama leads Romney on Medicare, 46%-44%, but indies prefer Romney, 46%-44%.

i. Obama leads on foreign policy, 52%-43%, and indies also give the president the nod, 46%-44%.

j. Obama leads on national security, 48%-46%, but indies pick Romney by 4%.

k. Republicans are, once again, most enthusiastic. 76% of GOPers rate their enthusiasm as 10/10, while 66% of Democrats say the same, and just 54% of indies put themselves at 10/10.

That’s the question for Romney going forward. Can he get indies to the polls to reap full rewards of his strength with them?

OVERALL: Just look at those internals. When indies pick Romney on things like healthcare and Medicare, you know Obama is in store for a rough showing with indies, overall.

Having said that, look for a Sandy-inspired bounce for Obama both in approval and favorability, and even though these things tend to be temporary, the election is only one week away and the immediacy of Sandy could have a profound effect.

[Hat tip: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls”]Real Clear Politics

]

 

[Scott_Lafrance]

NPR: Romney 48% Obama 47%

If Obama looses the independents by 10 percentage points, he looses the election. It is that simple, because he is not going to pull the same number of first time voters. People just aren’t as weeweed up as they were in 2008 to “make history”, and many of the turn-coat voters from 2008 are either not going to vote or are voting against him. I haven’t heard of any 2008 McCain voters who will be voting Obama this time.

I am sincerely convinced that the “tight race” that the MSM has been propagandizing doesn’t exist. They are making the race seem as tight as they can without appearing to be outright liars.

 

[oldcelt]

If Obama looses the independents by 10 percentage points, he looses the election. It is that simple, because he is not going to pull the same number of first time voters. People just aren’t as weeweed up as they were in 2008 to “make history”, and many of the turn-coat voters from 2008 are either not going to vote or are voting against him. I haven’t heard of any 2008 McCain voters who will be voting Obama this time.

I am sincerely convinced that the “tight race” that the MSM has been propagandizing doesn’t exist. They are making the race seem as tight as they can without appearing to be outright liars.

There’s Scott…the CAF folks in harms way are all turning up.

 

[Scott_Lafrance]

There’s Scott…the CAF folks in harms way are all turning up.

Blowing off some steam. I slept on the floor in the basement with the family. Discovered water seeping from a foundation crack and I have a leaky roof. At least we have power and water. Praying for the folks in New Jersey and New York.

 

[oldcelt]

Blowing off some steam. I slept on the floor in the basement with the family. Discovered water seeping from a foundation crack and I have a leaky roof. At least we have power and water. Praying for the folks in New Jersey and New York.

No doubt…those poor people really took a hit. Good to hear your damage was minor and everyone is well.

 

[_Abyssinia]

If Obama looses the independents by 10 percentage points, he looses the election. It is that simple, because he is not going to pull the same number of first time voters. People just aren’t as weeweed up as they were in 2008 to “make history”, and many of the turn-coat voters from 2008 are either not going to vote or are voting against him. I haven’t heard of any 2008 McCain voters who will be voting Obama this time.

I am sincerely convinced that the “tight race” that the MSM has been propagandizing doesn’t exist. They are making the race seem as tight as they can without appearing to be outright liars.

Do not believe this will be a close result either. I believe there will be a desisive win for Romney or Obama

 

[_Abyssinia]

York: With week to go, Team Romney is upbeat about Ohio

 

[Jeanne_S]

I am trying to figure out how a man who demonizes the ultra rich, and does not appear to have ever had the means of ever MAKING $35 million, can afford to purchase a home of this luxury? How do you clamour on about being for “the little guy” and then go out an buy a home that the “little guy” couldn’t even dream about living in. Hypocrisy on display.

The duplicity of the democrat partythat’s how

 

[ManOnFire]

*I have stopped watching CNN at certain hours precisely for the reasons you state above. I also do not like Piers Morgan and wish he would stop saying he is Catholic!

CNN’s war correspondents seem to be an honest bunch though. Or maybe I missed something?

I would be ashamed to be associated with Carville (his wife is OK though) and all the others - there is also a fellow called Paul %^$&(#@ (forgot his name) who smiles like a Cheshire cat. I cannot bear him!

I love the way so many people assume that a liberal lifestyle is the “only” or “en vogue” choice of lifestyle. That’s a narrow worldview.

 

[IzzyD]

I don’t even live in the USA but I’m following this election with interest

 

[Rich_Olszewski]

The duplicity of the democrat partythat’s how

Sure. In contrast, the Republican Party has never been duplicitous.

 

[scipio337]

Do not believe this will be a close result either. I believe there will be a desisive win for Romney or Obama

I’m not a big one for polls, but based on the recent trending, I’d bet my sigline on a Romney win.

Interesting releases from Gallup:

15% of registered voters have already voted:

gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

BIG swing in party identification since 2008. The title of this article is “2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008”, and while the trends for sex, age and race are pretty similar, if you go down to the bottom, you see identification of “Democrat” from 2004 to 2012 go

2004 2008 2012
37% 39% 35%

While the figures for identifies “Republican” go

2004 2008 2012
39% 29% 36%

The figures for “Democrat/Lean Democrat” and “Republican/Leans Republican” are even steeper, a 7 point hike for Republicans, and an 8 point drop for Democrats:

gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx

 

[Jeanne_S]

Sure. In contrast, the Republican Party has never been duplicitous.

My point was in reference to the Dems incessant mantra of getting the rich,Romney being the main target right now.On this issue the Dems own it.some of the wealthiest people in public office ate Dems,yet they somehow forget that fact with their constant attacks on the rich,greedy republicans.

 

[Rich_Olszewski]

My point was in reference to the Dems incessant mantra of getting the rich,Romney being the main target right now.On this issue the Dems own it.some of the wealthiest people in public office ate Dems,yet they somehow forget that fact with their constant attacks on the rich,greedy republicans.

So, just because there are some very rich people in the Democratic Party, the Dems don’t have the right to attack the rich? And, of which Dems are you speaking? Moi? I’m a Democrat.

 

[Tampa_Dave]

Sure. In contrast, the Republican Party has never been duplicitous.

We have been a lot of things since I’ve been a member of the GOP! But, I’m still here. There is no suitable and viable alternative.

 

[Jeanne_S]

So, just because there are some very rich people in the Democratic Party, the Dems don’t have the right to attack the rich? And, of which Dems are you speaking? Moi? I’m a Democrat.

If you re read my post,I said dem politicians.No,I find it very disingenuous that the dem platform is by and large being an advocate for the little guy,that being enforced by their constant attacks on the Repulicans being greedy and self centered.Anyway with the finger pointing,there are always more finger pointing back to the accuser

 

[_Abyssinia]

NBC News Prays That Sandy Halts Romney’s Momentum, Makes Obama Look Presidential

York: With week to go, Team Romney is upbeat about Ohio

 

[oldcelt]

NBC News Prays That Sandy Halts Romney’s Momentum, Makes Obama Look Presidential

York: With week to go, Team Romney is upbeat about Ohio

Another “accurate” Newsbusters headline. Read the transcript…at no point does anyone pray for anything. They simply discuss the possible ramifications of the storm.

John

 

[Scott_Lafrance]

Sure. In contrast, the Republican Party has never been duplicitous.

Never ever.

 

[qui_est_ce]

Blowing off some steam. I slept on the floor in the basement with the family. Discovered water seeping from a foundation crack and I have a leaky roof. At least we have power and water. Praying for the folks in New Jersey and New York.

Glad you are safe. Weren’t you recently unemployed as well?